Is this the Beginning?

As most of you know, there is a well-advertised skiff of snow to affect our area later this evening into the overnight...a likely 2-3" event for KMDT as the snow-liquid ratios should be quite high (~15:1) thus a 0.20" rainfall would equate into a 3" snowfall.  Since the system is moving rapidly, the precip amounts will be limited, but nonetheless, a winter event to indeed remind us it is January!  And I'm of the belief that the Meteo medusas are aligning to bring an onslaught of winter-like weather to the eastern US over the next 2 months.  Allow me to show the modeling...

First, the very near term event as per the NWS interactive winter weather website...the mountains of WVA look to be the winners in this go around...

And after what got off to a rollicking start in November...note the North American continent...that did last until December 5, cold ruled the eastern 2/3 of the USA...

...December turned mild and much less wild...a green Christmas for many...here is the last 30 days in terms of temps above norms...not too difficult to take if you are not a fan of winter weather and bone chilling arctic air that invades from time to time.

But as most of you noticed, the winds of change began earlier this week.  With wind gusts ~40 mph and wind chills often in the teens, the arctic hounds began to encroach into the US.  Just a little reminder that "As the days lengthen, winter's chill strengthens!"  And the Euro seems to be in that camp...here is the next 45 days as per numerical modeling Euro style.

And along with that, the arctic blanket to accompany said cold...quite a glacier forming over Quebec and northern New England...as well as...gulp...KMDT and vicinity!

Here's the GFS ensembles through the end of January...

So from this hunt and pecker, I'm looking at a seasonal pattern change around MLK day that will remind us all that we do indeed live in a location that does experience winter weather, sometimes harshly, most times benignly, with our O Canadian friends sending us shots from their beloved Nunavut.  I'll have Nunavut...thank you very much!

And speaking of O Canada...I'll leave y'all with this favorite ditty from a legendary singer-songwriter from the north country...enjoy!

And Go Eagles, Colts, Chargers, and Rams!

Smitty

AA:  A skiff of snow Saturday night...then a gradual change to more winter-like weather with a likely spell of true deep winter weather through February...and maybe even into March?  At least that is what the models suggest...