Winter's Worst

It's about 16 days until pitchers and catchers report to their spring training facilities.  OK...so what does that have to do with the weather?  This is the point in the calendar where we usually are enduring winter's worst offerings whether it is in terms of snow or cold or both.  Well, both are most certainly on the table, but record cold is lurking for these parts next week.  Let's go to the maps...

In the graphic below, note the colors over Hudson Bay, O Canada...that is the coldest air in the northern hemisphere and it is poised to make a run at the USA...

Look at where it is 96 hours later...brrr!  Also note the little "kink" in eastern Tennessee...

Well that little "kink" has the potential to spin up a nice little potent wave on the advancing arctic front that will make living a tad difficult in old Rocky Top along with the good folks around here in KMDT!  Now it's a good thing that we don't live up at 850 mb...

...because -20°F is quite cold to be sure!  And as y'all who read these regularly know that I like to look up at that level of the atmosphere to see where the air masses want to move without the effects of the earth's friction from the surface.  That air mass over Ontario, the UP, and northern Michigan is the coldest air in the northern hemisphere at that point in time!  Safe to say, the hearty people of Mackinac Island will be thinking of glorious summer temps in the 60s as opposed to what they are about to embrace!  One of the more "interesting" canoe trips I've had was when we were told to "keep it in the inside lane and not travel any faster than 25 mph" as we traversed the Mackinaw bridge toting a Old Town atop a small pick 'em up!  The winds that July evening were such that the trip to the UP is still well ingrained in my gray matter!  Very interesting to be sure...looks like they'll be breaking out the shorts come Super Bowl Sunday on Mackinac Island!

OK Smitty...that's nice for the populous of northern Michigan, but what about us?  Cold and potentially snowy is the call.  Cold is easy; the snowy is a challenge for those of you wanting!  When the upper air gets crazy in these parts, I've learned over the years to look at analogs...that being what has happened in the past may just play out again in the sensible weather here at the surface where we all live, and work, and play!  This is the most recent correlated analogs from the GFS ensembles for next weekend...and there are 4 heavy hitters in this graphic.

Most of you remember the PD II storm of 2003 and many of you remember the 1979 PD storm too.  Both were memorable to be sure.  The 1994 analog is also rather intriguing...so for those of you wanting snow with your cold, there is most certainly some hope for y'all.  Here is the Euro's depiction of snowfall come Wednesday morning with the high ratios being shown; it will be powdery on Tuesday night with the arctic front if it does indeed come to fruition...

And if we do have at least some snow on the ground, a below 0 morning will await us come later this week...just think you could really be enjoying some Chicago blues come Thursday morning so it's not that bad in these sub-tropical parts!

OK...I've depressed y'all plenty with winter worst about to pounce.  So enjoy this uplifting ditty as did I looking for the version I wanted to share...Enjoy!

 Man that looks like a ton of fun!

Smitty

AA:  An arctic front will push through later Tuesday bring very cold air, gusty winds, and likely some powder to accompany Nanook from the North!  Just wondering...you get your corn from a jar?