Hazy Shade of Winter

Guidance.  That's what numerical modeling is...just that...GUIDANCE.  If all weather forecasting was simply interpreting the models, it's not all that much fun.  But to try to interpret trends, understand certain biases of said modeling, and ultimately understand the climatology of where one is located (I have lived here (KMDT) essentially all my life with the lone exception of PSU), now that is the challenge that I most certainly enjoy!  Frankly, as most of you know, I view these numerical models of the atmosphere most everyday; not every run, but most everyday.  With that said, this upcoming storm for the weekend has been incredibly consistent with the modeling in regards to the following:  our area will receive about 1.5-2.0" of precipitation!  All global and now recently regional models have been consistent that this will be a dandy for winter precip!  But how does it fall Smitty?  To the ground, of course, in various forms over the next 72 hours will be my reply...please let me explain...

A week ago, the Euro model hammered us with a 2' blast of winter's worst; all snow and I shared that pic with my iMessage group...because that's what I do.  That got some eyes raised I do believe...including mine as the previous runs have kept this mundane winter to date pushing through MLK Day.  But not so fast!  Oh no; pattern change and quick it was.  Within a day, all the global models had a similar fate; heavy snowfall for PA and points north and east...

Then the model game began; oh no...north; oh no...south;  oh no...warm; oh no...Eagles lost (sorry). 

So what's the point that I've read this far?  After this evening's "skiff" as I like to call these overrunning events,  the Saturday night into Sunday storm WILL be an ordeal!  Whenever a sub 1000 mb (with juice) low pushes south of PA with a 1030-1040 mb high "bananing" over Quebec, be aware!  I'm still looking at a Saturday afternoon-evening thump of snow, followed by a prolonged period of pingers (sleet), then sleet and freezing rain to glaze everything that will make Mr. Heat Miser quite happy!  And then for some kicks and giggles, another 1-2" of wind blown powder being accompanied by the arctic emperor of the north.  For what it is worth, I do not believe the mercury (Hg) at KMDT will reach 32°F until Wednesday once the precip begins in earnest (or in Harrisburg).  And come Sunday, a biting cold NNW wind will advect flash freeze conditions into our region very quickly.  So whatever is on walks and drives, get it pushed away so as to not have a glacier reminding you of the prior weekend a week hence! 

One map...please understand this includes sleet, freezing rain (problem), and of course a heavy front thump of snow.

As always thanks for reading...and many tell me they like the music better than my Wx talk...so I hope y'all enjoy this; these chicks know how to rock!...Seasons change with their scenery! 

Be safe,

Smitty

AA:  Weekend storm WILL be the most impactful of this winter I do believe...comparable to VD 2007 storm thanks to the flash freeze component Sunday pm.  Go Chiefs and Rams!