Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
However, I do think we will see some very light snow for Sunday, probably arriving in the pre-dawn hours and giving KMDT ~1" (MAYBE...with this winter!) by mid-morning Sunday. It is an overrunning scenario with marginally cold but dry air to the north and a rather moisture filled system shearing off to our SE. Here is the most recent print out of precip by the NAM by early Sunday afternoon. Most, if not all, of the precip will fall as snow, but not all will accumulate due to warm surface temps of recent days. It could be a bit tricky early Sunday morning on your way to mass, worship, breakfast, the beer distributor to obtain Super Bowl refreshments....or even if you sleep in! Just be advised...
But if you sleep in too long you might just miss all of the action! By kickoff Sunday evening and most certainly by Monday, it will be all but a memory...look at the anomalous warmth once again! The map below is for Monday...
Now with this "winter" of 2011-12, and I use that term loosely, there does exist potential for late this upcoming week and the weekend time period. If all of the potential comes together, it will be the largest snowfall of the season. The modeling is suggesting that a cold and stormy remainder of the month is setting up beginning with this set-up. However, the modeling has been suggesting this change for a couple of weeks only to disappoint those of us who enjoy the winter weather! So pardon me for being a bit skeptical...but here is the potential in terms of the 500 mb chart. We need to get these 2 energies (circled in red) to phase and ultimately unite the northern and southern jets to produce a major east coast storm. It is one of the first times this year where from a week out it looks somewhat promising. However, don't hold your breath! Cold is almost a near certainty; will it be stormy?
Here is a map from the GFS trying to sniff out the possibility of a storm with the cold & dry to the north and the warm & humid to the south. I circled the areas of interest...the potential exists; now if the atmosphere would simply cooperate and manifest this into a major coastal development! It might be an exciting week to watch...but the realist in me is reminding me it is the winter of 2011-12!
The snow depth in the US is absolutely abysmal for those of you who enjoy nature's icing on the landscape. Northern New England, the northern lakes, and the high terrain of the west...THAT IS IT!
However, across the globe since mid January, snowfall has been above normal. And as some of you are aware, Alaska has had a record breaking January in terms of both snow and cold. At least 5 climatological stations had their COLDEST JANUARY EVER! Take a look at the graphic indicating the above normal snow cover...Just like the market had its "flash-crash" in 2010, that was a "flash-freeze" back in December! Sorry......
Here is a map showing the widespread snow cover in the northern hemisphere....just not in our backyards! It is fairly extensive...even over in Europe and Asia Minor at present. Europe has just suffered through a very cold week and snow was flying around the Vatican, a relatively rare event for that region! Even note the snow in the high Atlas Mountains of NW Africa!
But the winter of 2011-12 has been very benign here in the lower 48. That has not been the case across the globe. Take a look at how temps have plummeted over the last couple of weeks! Wow!
With the above graphic, I thought this is as good of time as any to introduce to some of you and replay for others what I feel should be a classic in a few short years to come! It's sad to say that Michael Mann is a PSU fellow!
Enjoy your Super Bowl weekend!
Smitty
AA: Very light early Sunday snow...and then once again looking for winter; this time there is real potential for a sizable event near the end of this upcoming week. But don't hold your breath!
The potential for a Super Bowl snow is still very much a possibility as the modeling is correcting further north...as is so often the case. Below is the NAM for Sunday afternoon...it brings a small amount of precip up towards the Harrisburg area. I don't have enough time to show you the maps, but the 500 mb vort max is actually moving eastward and consolidating its energy a bit more to help "phase" the moisture with the northern jet energy and soon we might be looking at a 2-4" snowfall for Sunday evening......If I have time in the am.......or if much changes, I will go more in depth then. As for now, gotta get over to CD for the CD-CV round ball games.
I just want to thank everyone for asking about Kay and her CT issue. As I said, I am weak; she is strong! Things are on the improve and before you know it, she'll be back to her engaging "firm handshake"....or like Pink Floyd stated in Dogs...
And after a while, you can work on points for style. Like the club tie, and
the firm handshake, A certain look in the eye and an easy smile.
OK...gotta head out!
Smitty
AA: Still looking at snow potential Sunday pm...and a Giants Super Bowl victory!
...but it is now becoming clear that winter will arrive beginning this weekend and possibly lock in through most of the month of February. Again let remind y'all that February is our snowiest month climatologically and it is looking as if that will once again be the case in the winter of 2011-12! It is hard to fathom that we will be looking at some rather severe winter weather after this rather mild upcoming mid-week period. Take a look at the raw temperature deviations from normal for this Wednesday...that is 18-21+F over southern PA!
But when we look at the GFS ensembles, look at how we trend to a ridge west, trough east configuration by this weekend...that is a sharp trough which has the potential to spin up a potent storm that should affect us here along the east coast sometime this weekend. Trust me, the ensembles are all over the place, but the theme is for a storm to develop over the lower Ohio Valley and transfer to a 2nd storm off the the NC coast. We often get sizable storms in a synoptic set-up of that nature!
Then by the middle of next week, some intense cold will enter the pattern as cross-polar flow discharges directly into the lower 48! That map below is a very cold map!
Look, the AO and the NAO are tanking...the numerical modeling is clearly suggesting the trend towards cold and stormy here in the east. Below, the last couple of runs are off the charts so to speak for the AO as per the GFS! Wow!
And here is the Euro's interpretation numerically of the NAO for the upcoming couple of weeks...it too wants to drop off the charts...kinda exciting if you like winter storms.
I was even a bit surprised the discussion coming out of HPC actually discussed the possibility of an east coast storm this weekend. Usually, they are very cautious about getting the public up in arms about the possibility or even probability of an east coast event at this time range! This is their published map as of Sunday afternoon for next Saturday. Note the high pressure over Quebec and albeit a weak low sitting just west of the 40-70 benchmark! Could be interesting! At the very least, it is something to monitor this week and that hasn't happened much, IF AT ALL, to this point in the winter season.
One thing looks nearly certain...it will be colder than normal starting this weekend. And most likely, stormier than normal as well. Mix those two ingredients together and we get a rockin' February if you like winter weather. My fear is that this pattern locks into March and spring is once again delayed; but obviously it can't be denied! So we are halfway through winter as marked by this Thursday's celebration of Groundhog Day...an astronomical cross quarter day between the Winter Solstice and the Vernal Equinox. If you've never taken the time to view Groundhog Day, it is most certainly worth the 2 hours of your time.
Have a great week and good luck to the CD Rams in their quest for yet another District 3 Wrestling Team title!
Smitty
AA: Mild week after a feisty cold front Sunday evening; then very mild for mid-week...followed by potentially a rather wild time beginning this weekend in terms of winter weather!
He may see piles of freshly falling snow if you believe the Euro for the end of next week! Although Groundhog Day is February 2, a day that marks the halfway point in winter, the map I'm showing is modeled for next Friday. First, the operational run from the Euro. For those wanting at least one good snow, this might be your opportunity!
However, the ensembles from the European model string the storm out much more than that of the operational run. The ensemble members are also more progressive and less phased with the northern and southern jet as you can see. What is lacking in both is a large dome of high pressure over New England and southern Quebec...that does not bode well for a major synoptic snowstorm.
Here is the GFS for next Friday. It too has a major storm, but is MUCH WARMER than the Euro. This would be a wet, not white, event for us here in all of PA!
Speaking of wet, that rain from the past couple of days coupled with a mild Friday really put a major hit on the snow pack! Take a look...Here is the snow cover last Sunday when the Giants and the Pats won their respective conferences...
And here it is as of today, Friday, Jan 27.
Wait until next week after this anomalous warmth that will be heading our way for the early and mid-week period. Look at the daily anomaly for Groundhog Day! The obvious cause for all of that warmth in O Canada and the northern plains (ND) is clearly due to all of the fossil fuel drilling that is occurring from Alberta's Athabasca Oil & Tar Sands and the Bakken Oil Fields of North Dakota!
Look at how the warm anomaly and the location of these fields show nearly a perfect positive correlation! Unreal! Darn drillers taking away my winter!
Oh well...not everyone blames the fossil fuel industry on our planet's mood swings!
Enjoy your week's end...and yet again another mild week following a brief cool down this weekend.
Smitty
AA: Looking for more winter...but it is really difficult to find! Might actually affect wrestling finals next weekend...but that is a longshot at this point unlike the CD Rams!
Just a very brief post without any graphics as I am unable to do so this morning...but I wanted to alert everyone to the possibility that winter will be making a renewed appearance beginning this weekend and possibly continuing through much of February! The GFS ensembles and the Euro all keep the NAO and the AO negative through the end of the month. Also, both modeling groups along with the Canadian are showing a return to cold and stormy conditions beginning this weekend and being portrayed on the numerical models through their extended runs.
I was telling a few of you about a former teacher's theory concerning the earth's heat balance and how not only in the long run, but in the shorter periods (within a season) that when part of the season might be anomalously warm, another part of it will be equally cold. This is simply how the earth balances out it thermal imbalances due to many physical factors. Whether we are talking a strong amplified jet or an oceanic oscillation, the nature of the physical world is to move towards higher entropy or simply greater mixing or randomness. Thus, pockets of air that tend to be warm will be ultimately replaced with pockets of air that tend to be cold...and vice versa. Sometimes this will occur gradually; other times this will occur rapidly or snap like the potential energy converting mechanically in a stretched rubber band! If the modeling is any indication, there is a very real possibility that the next few weeks could "snap" in response to the above normal temps we've been experiencing over the eastern half of the US. February does tend to be our snowiest month here in Harrisburg climatologically. Time will only tell.....
Enjoy your week...and I'll keep y'all posted on the upcoming potential for another moderate snowfall late this week and upcoming weekend....
I saw this and thought it to be appropriate! I liked....
I hope it posted.
Smitty
AA: Mild week followed by a potentially cold and stormy few weeks into mid-February. Watching a snow potential for this weekend.
Just a very quick update to once again alert many of you about some light freezing rain and drizzle that will overspread our Harrisburg area around 6 pm or so this evening....so just stay in a watch what should hopefully be an entertaining NFL Championship game between the Giants and the 49ers! But back to the topic at hand...here are the temps forecasted by the high resolution NAM for this evening at 6 pm. These modeled temps do look reasonable given the overcast conditions at this time and also with the fresh snow cover keeping the surface cold! Clearly, they will be several degrees below freezing this evening and into the first part of the overnight.
However, go up one mile and temps are beginning to warm. I would not be surprised to see some of this fall as sleet or even a few flakes, but most will fall as liquid and freeze on contact with the cold surface. What is most concerning is the light amounts that are forecast to fall as that will better enable the water to freeze and do so rather quickly without liberating too much latent heat of fusion...but I'll not bore y'all with the thermodynamics of phase changes in water! Here are the temps one mile up for this evening...the blue pockets would support snowflakes; the green raindrops.
Lastly, here is the simulated radar for this evening at about kickoff of the NFC Championship game. If you do need to venture outside this evening and into the overnight, just be aware of the probability of icy surfaces that are not treated or sitting in brine that was created by PennDot yesterday.
By 9 am Monday morning, temps everywhere around the Harrisburg region rise above freezing according to the model, but many times, these models including the high resolution models underestimate the low level cold. If we can get any mixing from above, then these temps will easily rise above freezing. Otherwise, they will be very stubborn to rise above 32ºF very quickly Monday morning. Just be aware...
OK...that's all for now...gotta go get primed with a fruit smoothie for the AFC game. Apple, orange, blueberry, grape, splash of almond milk, yogurt, and some ice all zinged together for a delicious pre-game treat! Doesn't that sound yummy? I know...I know...you'd rather have Chopp's jerky and bologna! But these are good...trust me! Enjoy your NFL Championship Sunday!
Smitty
AA: Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain this evening and into the overnight. Be careful if you venture out!
And mud is what we will have on our hands by the middle of this week as this past weekend's storm is but a memory (with the exception of a few piles where snow was plowed) with above normal temps forecast to rule the roost during this upcoming mid and latter week period. Look at the anomalous warmth that overtakes North America this week...(valid this Friday)
However, before we venture down the road into the medium and longer range, a potentially hazardous event lurks for early morning commuters Monday. As I alluded to with many of you over the weekend, I was concerned about the potential for freezing rain late Sunday into early Monday. Fresh snow cover helps hold cold dense air near the surface and thus, any light precip or drizzle will freeze on untreated surfaces quickly. And a light SE flow will develop this evening with an approaching storm from the west and with it marine upsloping moisture laden air from the Atlantic...a perfect recipe for black ice in these parts. Please be aware if out and about late Sunday into early Monday before temps rise and we begin our much above normal week temperature-wise. The NWS has actually been very proactive with this situation as shown below...
As for the medium and longer range, once again mixed signals appear in the global models. The Euro has done a complete 180º turnabout from yesterday with its NAO forecast. The most recent run trends the NAO back to the dreaded + state for any who want more winter. However, its last 2 runs had the NAO tanking. Take a look...
The GFS is actually more bullish on the return of winter for the next few weeks...Note the consistent negative slope the last few weeks and how we have actually observed colder temps with some, albeit minimal, wintry precip. Come to think of it, that graph below resembles some of my stock picks for 2011! Ouch!
And here is the GFS' take on the AO as well...Note how the AO is forecast to tank, but then head back towards a neutral signal...time will tell.
I will say this. Yesterday, the Euro actually had 2 storms on its docket for us here in the eastern US on days 7 and 10. Now, it has backed off. Note the difference in the upper air pattern between the Euro and the GFS for the period 8-10 hence. (The GFS is on the right.) Note how much colder and deeper the trough is with the GFS over eastern NA. With that very important difference, both tend to agree with the global pattern in the norther hemisphere; low heights over AK, ridge over HI, ridge over Siberia, deep trough over western Pacific. If...and that is a big if, that cold over AK can be displaced SE, the pattern is set for a rocking February!
Let me just quickly show you the GFS' take on things at a few points into the future...First, fast forward 7 days...Actually the ensembles have fairly good agreement as shown to the right. The white line is the mean position of all 20 members of the ensembles.
Now, at 10 days...This is a very cold pattern! A direct discharge of Arctic bliss at the Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...There is still decent agreement amongst the ensemble members...
Finally at 384 hours, or 16 days into the future...a half of month! Usually a crap shoot at this time frame. A deep broad trough over the lower 48; not as cold, but still potentially stormy with wintry precip abundant with this upper air flow. Also note the anomalously low heights just upstream from us suggesting a continuation of a colder and stormier pattern long into February...Again, only time will tell. The map on the right accurately portrays why these model runs are referred to euphemistically as a "spaghetti plot".
I leave y'all with this. Whatever might occur into the future, enjoy our recent change of landscape scenery as it will not be around past mid-week. Here is the snowfall as determined from space as of Saturday, January 21, 2012...or 01-21-12! Officially, KMDT recorded 4.5" of snow with 0.51" liquid equivalent producing a surprisingly low ~9:1 ratio...nearly the exact same measurements at my humble abode just a short 2.5 miles SSW of KMDT.
21-12! That was a great album from the 70s. Now I know many of you have no idea...but just take a listen to a cut from this classic from Rush, a band that hails from O Canada and features some outstanding percussion from one Neil Peart! Be careful when you play this if you are only half awake because you and your neighbors WILL BE FULLY AWAKE once played. Look into the entire album 2112 if you liked this song.
Enjoy your NFL Championship Sunday!
Smitty
AA: Some light freezing rain into early Monday. Then becoming milder this week before getting wilder for February!
