Not So Super Snow For Super Bowl Sunday

However, I do think we will see some very light snow for Sunday, probably arriving in the pre-dawn hours and giving KMDT ~1" (MAYBE...with this winter!) by mid-morning Sunday.  It is an overrunning scenario with marginally cold but dry air to the north and a rather moisture filled system shearing off to our SE.  Here is the most recent print out of precip by the NAM by early Sunday afternoon.  Most, if not all, of the precip will fall as snow, but not all will accumulate due to warm surface temps of recent days.  It could be a bit tricky early Sunday morning on your way to mass, worship, breakfast, the beer distributor to obtain Super Bowl refreshments....or even if you sleep in!  Just be advised...

But if you sleep in too long you might just miss all of the action!   By kickoff Sunday evening and most certainly by Monday, it will be all but a memory...look at the anomalous warmth once again!  The map below is for Monday...

Now with this "winter" of 2011-12, and I use that term loosely, there does exist potential for late this upcoming week and the weekend time period.  If all of the potential comes together, it will be the largest snowfall of the season.  The modeling is suggesting that a cold and stormy remainder of the month is setting up beginning with this set-up.  However, the modeling has been suggesting this change for a couple of weeks only to disappoint those of us who enjoy the winter weather!  So pardon me for being a bit skeptical...but here is the potential in terms of the 500 mb chart.  We need to get these 2 energies (circled in red) to phase and ultimately unite the northern and southern jets to produce a major east coast storm.  It is one of the first times this year where from a week out it looks somewhat promising.  However, don't hold your breath!  Cold is almost a near certainty; will it be stormy?

Here is a map from the GFS trying to sniff out the possibility of a storm with the cold & dry to the north and the warm & humid to the south.  I circled the areas of interest...the potential exists; now if the atmosphere would simply cooperate and manifest this into a major coastal development!  It might be an exciting week to watch...but the realist in me is reminding me it is the winter of 2011-12!

The snow depth in the US is absolutely abysmal for those of you who enjoy nature's icing on the landscape. Northern New England, the northern lakes, and the high terrain of the west...THAT IS IT!

However, across the globe since mid January, snowfall has been above normal.  And as some of you are aware, Alaska has had a record breaking January in terms of both snow and cold.  At least 5 climatological stations had their COLDEST JANUARY EVER!  Take a look at the graphic indicating the above normal snow cover...Just like the market had its "flash-crash" in 2010, that was a "flash-freeze" back in December!  Sorry......

Here is a map showing the widespread snow cover in the northern hemisphere....just not in our backyards!  It is fairly extensive...even over in Europe and Asia Minor at present.  Europe has just suffered through a very cold week and snow was flying around the Vatican, a relatively rare event for that region!  Even note the snow in the high Atlas Mountains of NW Africa!

But the winter of 2011-12 has been very benign here in the lower 48.  That has not been the case across the globe.  Take a look at how temps have plummeted over the last couple of weeks!  Wow!

With the above graphic, I thought this is as good of time as any to introduce to some of you and replay for others what I feel should be a classic in a few short years to come!  It's sad to say that Michael Mann is a PSU fellow!

Enjoy your Super Bowl weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Very light early Sunday snow...and then once again looking for winter; this time there is real potential for a sizable event near the end of this upcoming week.  But don't hold your breath!