It's Only Taken Two Months...

...but it is now becoming clear that winter will arrive beginning this weekend and possibly lock in through most of the month of February.  Again let remind y'all that February is our snowiest month climatologically and it is looking as if that will once again be the case in the winter of 2011-12!  It is hard to fathom that we will be looking at some rather severe winter weather after this rather mild upcoming mid-week period.  Take a look at the raw temperature deviations from normal for this Wednesday...that is 18-21+F over southern PA!

But when we look at the GFS ensembles, look at how we trend to a ridge west, trough east configuration by this weekend...that is a sharp trough which has the potential to spin up a potent storm that should affect us here along the east coast sometime this weekend.  Trust me, the ensembles are all over the place, but the theme is for a storm to develop over the lower Ohio Valley and transfer to a 2nd storm off the the NC coast.  We often get sizable storms in a synoptic set-up of that nature!

Then by the middle of next week, some intense cold will enter the pattern as cross-polar flow discharges directly into the lower 48!  That map below is a very cold map!

Look, the AO and the NAO are tanking...the numerical modeling is clearly suggesting the trend towards cold and stormy here in the east.  Below, the last couple of runs are off the charts so to speak for the AO as per the GFS!  Wow!

And here is the Euro's interpretation numerically of the NAO for the upcoming couple of weeks...it too wants to drop off the charts...kinda exciting if you like winter storms.

 I was even a bit surprised the discussion coming out of HPC actually discussed the possibility of an east coast storm this weekend.  Usually, they are very cautious about getting the public up in arms about the possibility or even probability of an east coast event at this time range!  This is their published map as of Sunday afternoon for next Saturday.  Note the high pressure over Quebec and albeit a weak low sitting just west of the 40-70 benchmark!  Could be interesting!  At the very least, it is something to monitor this week and that hasn't happened much, IF AT ALL, to this point in the winter season. 

One thing looks nearly certain...it will be colder than normal starting this weekend.  And most likely, stormier than normal as well.  Mix those two ingredients together and we get a rockin' February if you like winter weather.  My fear is that this pattern locks into March and spring is once again delayed; but obviously it can't be denied!  So we are halfway through winter as marked by this Thursday's celebration of Groundhog Day...an astronomical cross quarter day between the Winter Solstice and the Vernal Equinox.  If you've never taken the time to view Groundhog Day, it is most certainly worth the 2 hours of your time. 

Have a great week and good luck to the CD Rams in their quest for yet another District 3 Wrestling Team title!

Smitty

AA:  Mild week after a feisty cold front Sunday evening; then very mild for mid-week...followed by potentially a rather wild time beginning this weekend in terms of winter weather!