"Nothing Is Over 'Till We Decide It Is!"

One of my favorite scenes from one of my favorite movies...

And it is now becoming increasingly more likely that this unique winter of 2015-16 will not go quietly!  Earlier in the week, I shared with my daily encounterees that ALL of the global models had some type of winter mischief up their numerical sleeve!  Then, as usual this past winter, the models were all over the place.  Well, it is now looking more and more likely, at least to me, that what would be a major winter event for January will affect our region Palm Sunday into Monday...please let me explain...1st, as some of you know, I like to use analogs and the #1 analog using the GFS for this upcoming weekend delivered this in terms of snowfall!

Here is the upper air and surface low low-cation (top left) for those of you who like this sort of stuff...

And although the models lost this storm the last 36 hours, it's a comin' back.  First, take a look at the Euro from overnight (in terms of snowfall)...

And the Euro from this afternoon...

And the GFS from earlier today...

And the latest GFS run...and this will continue to shift further west IMHO...

And just humor me with yet another comparison.  The NAM was best with the blizzard earlier this year; many in the field "knock" the NAM until it's with 12-18 hours of an event.  Well, I believe the NAM is pretty good with large scale atmospheric synoptics even at its 84 hour end. Compare the low location between the GFS and the NAM at 84 hours...1st the GFS...note the storm forming off the GA-SC coast...

Now look where the NAM has the low...western GA/eastern Sweet Home Alabama...

And I've had many tell me that it's too warm for snow to accumulate; well not when temps are in the upper 20s and low 30s and AT NIGHT when the snow is likely to be the heaviest...look at the 850 mb temp anomaly for early next week (the graphic below is once the core of cold is lifting out NE)...You'll know it's plenty cold come Friday/Saturday as a direct discharge of arctic air will come straight down from O' Canada, more specifically, from frozen Hudson Bay!

But, not all bad; note the warm-up over the plains heading east; however, the warmth will be blunted by the wet/white ground for a bit once again (ie. a "Pennsylvania Spring").  Hey don't shoot the messenger; just trying to keep those who want to be informed just that.  So I'll check out with this 1989 song released on one of my favorite albums...Don Henley's "The End of the Innocence".  This is what the winter MIGHT be screaming on the Vernal Equinox in these parts...and Isn't it Ironic...I could play that one too, but I'll stick with my 1st thought!  Enjoy!

And enjoy your Thursday...dangerously close to the end of the work week!

Smitty

AA:  Monitoring what might be a memorable end to a very unique winter; warmest December, heaviest snowfall in January, top 5 wettest D-F periods...and now this.  It will give you time to prep the mowers for what will be a warm April once we get past the 1st week!  Won't be freezing my butt off watching the Os in April!  Nor will BoSox fans in Beantown!

I Have a Theory

Humor me for just a few paragraphs...and for those of you who want to know just about the sensible weather...just skip down to the AA at the end of this post...but I have a theory, and I would truly like your thoughts in return.  I think the numerical modeling of the atmosphere has become too good!  What I mean is that every little minutia of detail is now incorporated and thus leads to wilds swings in the outcome of the initialization of the input of the atmospheric data.  Personally, I'm a pattern recognition guy...and what happened before will likely happen again.  I'll not bore y'all with the maps, but ALL of the global models have gone from 12"+ snows to 2"+ rains and just a bit in between for the unsettled weather that WILL manifest itself next week.  As for the computer modelers...I have the utmost respect for what they do; essentially build the atmosphere at multiple levels into a binary yes/no equation.  Trust me...I have no desire to venture into that realm coming from a guy whose last comp sci class at PSU involved IBM punch cards and you better be damned sure they were in the correct order...enough said.  Okay...so what's the weather Smitty?

Darn Nice Saturday!  You best enjoy it!  The graphic below supports my position that modeling is detailing too much...note the lower temps along the colder Susq River... pretty darn good for a global model!  But, Sat will be the nicest,  I believe of the next 10!

And here is why I say that...a constant trough into the eastern part of the US for the next several days/weeks...You have a trough that deep with a ridge that maxed in BC...watch out below...just plain wintry ugliness; rain, sleet, freezing rain, snow...you get the pic...UGLY you ain't got no alibi...the 500 mb pattern is UGLY!

I will not show snow maps...but I will show precip maps.  Keep in mind that some will be dendrites, some ice pellets, some liquid sunshine...personally, I like it all!  But Wednesday am will be UGLY across all of PA...and this system is juicy...Again, note the incredible resolution of the enhanced precip over the warmer Bay near Baltimore...can't wait for Os baseball...Let's Go O's!

Once I have a more definitive answer for y'all, I will issue something forthwith.  I do truly appreciate all of your personal comments and am humbled by the fact that you value my opine about this inconceivable system that we try to analyze called the atmosphere and the wx!  Honestly...I liked IBM punch cards.  Times were simpler.  My wife even states so many times that she was born late...I could see us hanging out with the Ingalls near that little house on the prairie...

Time to run...actually sleep so I can "run" at the gym tomorrow.  Running for me consists of lifting fast (deadlifts and squats) and then cardio on the arc trainer...it's a good endorphin rush!

Enjoy your week's end!  Oh yeah...tunes...I've been on an Eagles kick of late and IV shared with me his "4" favs of the Eagles...so just "Four" him...another Eagles tune to sign off...one of my favs as well!

Enjoy the week's end...I know I will in spite of that pesky wave of cloudiness/spittyness later Sunday; trust me Saturday will be nice!

Smitty

AA:  Love Sat wx... because it simply gets ugly and uglier once again from that point forward into the medium and longer range!  March looks cold...sorry Z!

Uncertainty Abounds

As I sit here and evaluate the synoptics of next week, the general pattern is fairly easy to depict.  An upper air trough in the east; a ridge in the western portion of the continent...take a look...

The orangish colors over the west have led to a warmer and drier S California and the deserts of the SW.  In fact, Phoenix set a record for its earliest 90°F for the calendar year earlier this week.  Personally, I believe that the blue colors over Hudson Bay will "phase" more strongly with the low heights over the deep south and create a rather potent surface disturbance which will travel north and east up along the natural baroclinic zone of the coastal interface.  In fact, for those of you who are rooting on a snow storm, be concerned that a stronger phase will pull the surface storm further inland allowing for a wet event in these parts as marine air would invade the piedmont.  A lesser phase will allow for the coastal commute for the low pressure system and generate yet another major snowfall in these parts.  IT'S JUST TOO EARLY TO CALL!  In fact, the 51 runs of the Euro ensemble are quite confused...check it out...

As per the Euro, temperature is not an issue with this event for the precip type, nor is it with the even weaker GFS, which has been as convicted with a solution as an eligible bachelor is looking for his "flavor of the week"!  Sorry...I needed a metaphor for this flip-floppy GFS which is so often frustrating.  Take a look at the "warmest" 850 mb temps for the event next week...

There is plenty of time to scrutinize next week; let's enjoy the potential 60°F temps we may experience Saturday under sunny skies...here is the temp modeled for Saturday pm...the yellowish colors are 60°F+...

OK...gotta go...just trying to keep everyone updated on this endless siege of moisture from the deep tropics which is often encountering stubborn cold air both here at the surface and aloft.  Personally, I believe this pattern will last well into the middle of March.  Sorry, Z!  But as a tradeoff, once the pattern switches...spring will be coming on gangbusters with a warmer and drier than normal spring I do believe...we will see?!?!

I'll leave y'all with this...in memory of one of my favorite musicians (group) which has nothing to do with the weather other than we can all love a little CA weather from time to time.  (At the time of this LAX is reporting 64F with a 50F dew point and a wind off the Pacific at 12 mph...)  Enjoy!

Enjoy your Friday and even more so your week's end...

Smitty

AA:  Watching yet another winter storm potential next week after a mild/warm weekend.

Just Watching

After this major and record breaking snowfall, I'm just watching and waiting for another coastal storm.  There's an old adage in wx prognostications...It snows where it wants to snow...!  With that said, there is a potential coastal development next Thursday-Friday...

I'll show the different solutions...

First...our American GFS...clearly out to sea...jumping onto the Gulf Stream...

Now the JMA...hinting at a coastal Low...

Next the Canucks...this is an ensemble...again a hint of some home brew along the east coast...

Now the Euro ensemble Low placement...there's enough there to get us thinking again...but please understand, the upper air synoptics are much different than a week ago...just sayin'...

By the way...the Ukie is out sea as well...take a look...

I'm simply suggesting...be aware of the potential coastal storm that COULD deliver another 5-10" storm...I've seen this before...and God willing...I'll see it again!

Hope everyone is doing just fine with this past hardship of waist deep snows in our area...

Oh...I almost forgot...music...since I'm in rock and roll frame this evening...here ya go...Rock and Roll...

Smitty

AA:  Wondering if you are done plowing...yet?  Because...there's a possibility it's
Deja Vu next weekend!  About 50/50 at this point in my book!

Blizzard of 2016 Reflections

As most of you are now aware, 30.2" of snow was recorded during the "Blizzard of 2016" officially at KMDT!  That in and of itself is quite a feat for south central PA...especially when being measured by what often seems to be an underperforming airport for winter weather events!  But I digress...

So very early this morning I decided to check the property as the sun was rising.  It was nearly dead calm.  Skies were crystal clear!  My thermometer read a "balmy" 4°F.  There was no man-made noise from what I could discern; wonderfully silent!  It reminded me of Ralph Waldo Emerson's quote..."Let us be silent so we may hear the whisper of God".  What a unique winter wonderland that I seldom experience living here in the greater Harrisburg-York corridor!

But I also was thinking...man, just walking in the deep snow had me breathing deeply.  My lower lats and external obliques gently reminded me I had moved some snow yesterday...and I got thinking...just how much snow?   So for a little mental exercise I determined that I moved 24.4 tons of the white stuff...and that doesn't count the snowblower on the driveway!  So I'll walk you through this...

Keep in mind that measurements are approximations for easier calculations...

Given:  

1.  30" of snowfall (at least...it seemed like every time I moved the snow, it drifted right back into the area of lower wind generated kinetic energy and came to rest in my sheltered paths...sorry I digress again!)

2.  Shovel dimensions are 1' wide by 6" deep or 0.5 sq ft

3.  With 6" of snow on the shovel, the load is  ~20 lbs

4.  So with our 30" snow yesterday (glad it was rather high ratio, lighter snow), 1 sq ft of snow 30" deep weighed approx 200lbs. (and by the end of the day so it seemed!)

5.  Patio:  144 sq ft & 100' Linear walkway and steps 1 foot wide (one shovel width) for a total of 244 sq ft of manual snow removal.

So at 200 lbs per sq ft and 244 sq ft was cleared of snow, 48,800 lbs (24.4 Tons) of snow was moved!  So it was no problem that Planet Fitness was closed yesterday...Ha!  

OK...I bored y'all enough with this little "geeky" calculation.  But I will leave y'all with this...the Euro ensembles indicating another wave of low pressure along the eastern seaboard later next week...bears watching!  BUT THE SYNOPTICS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED!  So frankly, I'm not expecting another snowfall, but it must be monitored!

OK...enjoy your NFL Championship Sunday...and enjoy my music choice for your Sunday listening pleasure!  This is a different kind of blues...

Smitty

AA:  Historic snowfall for Harrisburg; living history!  Are you even home yet from plowing?

Record Warmth Looming For This Weekend

Although most of you are fully aware of the mild weather of recent days and weeks, I am now in strong belief that this Sunday we will likely set a record max for KMDT.  The record is 63°F set in 1948.  63°F seems like a reasonable target given the synoptic set-up.  Please allow me to set the stage...First the 500 mb heights from normal; quite mild aloft for us here in PA Sunday!

Next, the 850 mb temperature anomaly.  Remember, these are the temps up about 1 mile above the surface of the earth here in PA.  15°C is about ~30°F above normal for this time of year!  Cookin'...

Here is the very strong jet supporting warm air advection into these parts as well...note that our air originates "Where the stars at night are big and bright.... deep in the heart of Texas"!

This 5 day 850 mb anomaly ending the 15th of December does not bode well for my skiing compadres in the north country!

With just even a little downsloping WNW wind, we should top out in the mid 60s barring any appreciable precip between now and Sunday.  The Euro "ties" us; I believe the mighty Euro is underdone by 2-4°F.  We will see what we will see...I can't believe I'm rooting on a record max for December!  Man, I must be getting old!

By the way, just for kicks and giggles and to graphically depict how mild it truly has been...here is the last 45 days...Wow!  Note the Great Salt Lake as an isle or mild!

But rest assured, the pattern WILL CHANGE sooner rather than later and this mild weather will be long forgotten once January rolls around...but that is a different story for a different day!  As for today, I leave y'all with this ditty...enjoy your Beautiful "Fun-day Sunday Day"!  

And enjoy your mid-week!

Smitty

AA:  Continued mild with record warmth "likely?" this Sunday.  Saturday will also be nice but the record max is a bit too high for our set up I believe.  Enjoy those young-ins!

Sniffing Out Arctic Air

I know it's been awhile since I last opined about the weather, but an Arctic intrusion is likely to rudely remind us all that the 3 coldest months of the year are just around the corner.  I simply wanted to give y'all a "heads-up" as to the situation as I haven't really heard too much scuttlebutt about such cold.  Remember, it's been quite warm the last several weeks as you know.  Here is the warmth depicted graphically:

Yes...it has been warm.  But all of that will change beginning this weekend.  It will be a step down process with a reinforcing shot of truly modified arctic air invading Sunday afternoon.  The polar air coming Friday and Saturday will be chilly but the real slap will be Monday!  Here is Saturday morning's temperature anomaly...

Note what lurks in the plains and Rockies...That will arrive Sunday afternoon but will really be felt Monday compared to averages!

However, another warm spell will give relief quickly from the cold come the few days following Thanksgiving...However, look what is back in the Dakotas and high plains drifting our way!

Although the cold will not affect us here in the east as much as the impact will be felt further west, compared to what we've experienced to this point in November, this will feel COLD!  The graphic below is from the Euro, a 7 day average for the 1st 7 days of December.  That is a very cold continental US 7 day map!  Keep in mind, this is in °C!

So...the bearer of bad news?  Well, not so much as I believe December for us here in PA will end up a degree or so either side of normal...but again considering how warm both October and November have been, it will feel quite cold to us.  I will also leave you with another type of "Cold Shot" many of you might enjoy...I know I do!

Stevie Ray Vaughn...enjoy!

And enjoy your upcoming Thanksgiving week and remember to give thanks in some small way for all of which with we are blessed...

Smitty

AA:  A step down to colder weather the next couple of weeks.  Sunday-Monday will be quite chilly.  Then a moderation before some serious chill will invade the 1st week of December.  Walks will be brisk in the lot; but they will be!