Uncertainty Abounds

As I sit here and evaluate the synoptics of next week, the general pattern is fairly easy to depict.  An upper air trough in the east; a ridge in the western portion of the continent...take a look...

The orangish colors over the west have led to a warmer and drier S California and the deserts of the SW.  In fact, Phoenix set a record for its earliest 90°F for the calendar year earlier this week.  Personally, I believe that the blue colors over Hudson Bay will "phase" more strongly with the low heights over the deep south and create a rather potent surface disturbance which will travel north and east up along the natural baroclinic zone of the coastal interface.  In fact, for those of you who are rooting on a snow storm, be concerned that a stronger phase will pull the surface storm further inland allowing for a wet event in these parts as marine air would invade the piedmont.  A lesser phase will allow for the coastal commute for the low pressure system and generate yet another major snowfall in these parts.  IT'S JUST TOO EARLY TO CALL!  In fact, the 51 runs of the Euro ensemble are quite confused...check it out...

As per the Euro, temperature is not an issue with this event for the precip type, nor is it with the even weaker GFS, which has been as convicted with a solution as an eligible bachelor is looking for his "flavor of the week"!  Sorry...I needed a metaphor for this flip-floppy GFS which is so often frustrating.  Take a look at the "warmest" 850 mb temps for the event next week...

There is plenty of time to scrutinize next week; let's enjoy the potential 60°F temps we may experience Saturday under sunny skies...here is the temp modeled for Saturday pm...the yellowish colors are 60°F+...

OK...gotta go...just trying to keep everyone updated on this endless siege of moisture from the deep tropics which is often encountering stubborn cold air both here at the surface and aloft.  Personally, I believe this pattern will last well into the middle of March.  Sorry, Z!  But as a tradeoff, once the pattern switches...spring will be coming on gangbusters with a warmer and drier than normal spring I do believe...we will see?!?!

I'll leave y'all with this...in memory of one of my favorite musicians (group) which has nothing to do with the weather other than we can all love a little CA weather from time to time.  (At the time of this LAX is reporting 64F with a 50F dew point and a wind off the Pacific at 12 mph...)  Enjoy!

Enjoy your Friday and even more so your week's end...

Smitty

AA:  Watching yet another winter storm potential next week after a mild/warm weekend.