"Nothing Is Over 'Till We Decide It Is!"

One of my favorite scenes from one of my favorite movies...

And it is now becoming increasingly more likely that this unique winter of 2015-16 will not go quietly!  Earlier in the week, I shared with my daily encounterees that ALL of the global models had some type of winter mischief up their numerical sleeve!  Then, as usual this past winter, the models were all over the place.  Well, it is now looking more and more likely, at least to me, that what would be a major winter event for January will affect our region Palm Sunday into Monday...please let me explain...1st, as some of you know, I like to use analogs and the #1 analog using the GFS for this upcoming weekend delivered this in terms of snowfall!

Here is the upper air and surface low low-cation (top left) for those of you who like this sort of stuff...

And although the models lost this storm the last 36 hours, it's a comin' back.  First, take a look at the Euro from overnight (in terms of snowfall)...

And the Euro from this afternoon...

And the GFS from earlier today...

And the latest GFS run...and this will continue to shift further west IMHO...

And just humor me with yet another comparison.  The NAM was best with the blizzard earlier this year; many in the field "knock" the NAM until it's with 12-18 hours of an event.  Well, I believe the NAM is pretty good with large scale atmospheric synoptics even at its 84 hour end. Compare the low location between the GFS and the NAM at 84 hours...1st the GFS...note the storm forming off the GA-SC coast...

Now look where the NAM has the low...western GA/eastern Sweet Home Alabama...

And I've had many tell me that it's too warm for snow to accumulate; well not when temps are in the upper 20s and low 30s and AT NIGHT when the snow is likely to be the heaviest...look at the 850 mb temp anomaly for early next week (the graphic below is once the core of cold is lifting out NE)...You'll know it's plenty cold come Friday/Saturday as a direct discharge of arctic air will come straight down from O' Canada, more specifically, from frozen Hudson Bay!

But, not all bad; note the warm-up over the plains heading east; however, the warmth will be blunted by the wet/white ground for a bit once again (ie. a "Pennsylvania Spring").  Hey don't shoot the messenger; just trying to keep those who want to be informed just that.  So I'll check out with this 1989 song released on one of my favorite albums...Don Henley's "The End of the Innocence".  This is what the winter MIGHT be screaming on the Vernal Equinox in these parts...and Isn't it Ironic...I could play that one too, but I'll stick with my 1st thought!  Enjoy!

And enjoy your Thursday...dangerously close to the end of the work week!

Smitty

AA:  Monitoring what might be a memorable end to a very unique winter; warmest December, heaviest snowfall in January, top 5 wettest D-F periods...and now this.  It will give you time to prep the mowers for what will be a warm April once we get past the 1st week!  Won't be freezing my butt off watching the Os in April!  Nor will BoSox fans in Beantown!