The Cold was the Easy Part

This late week's forecast was challenging from the get-go.  But I was fairly certain the cold was coming.  And as shown below from the NWS, a freeze watch has been issued for our immediate area Thursday night into Friday morning.  This watch extends into northern MD as well.  See below...

With the passing of a weak low pressure system just south of PA on Thursday, cold air will advect south once the low passes our longitude and send cold air bleeding south into the Mid-Atlantic.  Most of the precip will be past, so snow will not really be an issue for the KMDT area.  However, in the northern and northeast part of the state, snow could accumulate a few inches, especially at elevation!  Here is the latest NAM's take on accumulated for Thursday's snowfall.

But the real interesting situation develops late Friday into Saturday.  The modeling is now coming into some sort of consensus, that being a storm, not as strong as originally modeled, and slightly off the coast a bit further.  BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT OUR WX SATURDAY.  The Japanese model is the most bullish for nasty snowfall for our region during Saturday into Sunday.  I believe this scenario is a bit overblown!  This would be a major snowstorm from downeast ME to around Philly!

The Euro is a bit flatter and further away from the coast, but still having an impact along the I-95 corridor...and possibly back to us here in Harrisburg!

Then the Japanese model spins up a doozy from the remnants of Rina which is currently spinning her way around the Gulf!  Look at this moisture laden system.  This solution does have some potential for the middle of next week!  Snow is not a concern with this as the thicknesses are much higher (warmer), but heavy rain would be a concern!

So as we march onto November, the atmosphere begins its countdown to winter and the cold weather season.  Had this pattern set up like this in December and January, my oh my, this would be rather intriguing!  But it is only October, and winter type precip is transient when it occurs.  But I do believe people will get a real dose of cold when Friday morning arrives and feel just how cold it became so quickly.  So I hope you enjoyed this last mild day for quite some time as the afternoon temps achieved 66F; it felt quite balmy at Landis Field.  But the cold air is ready to pounce and be in our area in spades beginning late Thursday and through the weekend.  Sunday will prove to be a nice day with a huge dome of high pressure over PA as shown below, but it will still have a bit of a bite to the air.

Speaking of bite, Happy Halloween y'all.  After all, Halloween has its origins not in ghosts or goblins, but as a cross quarter day, that being a day halfway between the Autumnal Equinox and the Winter Solstice!  All Saints Day falls close to the 4th Quarter Day of the Earth's Revolution cycle.  Halloween, a pagan celebration of All Hallow's Eve was recognized close to the 4th Quarter day of the annual solar cycle.  It still seems to be the most celebrated of the quarter days, although I'm partial of the celebration commemorating my buddy from Punxsutawney, PA, that being Groundhog's Day!

Enjoy your end of the week!

Smitty

AA:  Damp and raw Thursday with rain ending as the cold air arrives, then a cold Friday with the potential for some wintry type precip on Saturday.  Middle of next week, we could have a real soaker from the tropical disturbance down in the Gulf tonight.

A World of Ideas for this Weekend

I just thought I'd share what the modeling is doing for this weekend's potential wild and wacky weather.  First, let's start with our own Navy's model of the atmosphere.  After all, there are nuclear physicists in the US Navy....right?  It has quite the nor'easter, maybe just a bit too far east to cause real havoc in PA.  But it would be interesting!

Now here is the fair weather O Canadian.  Two high pressures over the Mid-Atlantic for Saturday.  Just cold and dry to be sure.

Now the Euro...I believe this model has been the steadfast rock of atmospheric interpretations over the recent years and usually has a clue from this time frame.  This would make for some rather ugly wx in PA, especially in the mountains where accumulating snow is represented by its 12Z run as of today.  Take a look.....

The GFS is flat with a storm, albeit 300+ miles offshore of ACY.  Cold, dry NW flow!

Now here is one of the runs of the GFS ensembles...it looks as if I hacked into their system to create this monster!

And here is the British Isles' UKMET run.  It too has a major storm, although not as cold as any of the above models.

And lastly, the "official" position as taken by the forecasters at HPC as shown by their surface map for Saturday.  It appears as if they are leaning a bit more towards the United nations of modeling and veering away from the GFS to some extent!

It will be interesting to see how this heat, humidity, and upper air trough resolve themselves this weekend.  Maybe when the Fighting Illini come to Happy Valley, it will be one of those mid-fall games where the State College wx becomes a factor in the outcome of the contest on the gridiron.  As we all know, that PSU defense needs all the help it can get because it is surely not getting any consistent efforts from it own offense.  How about an 8-1 Lion team going into their last 3 games?  Not too shabby!  Oh, but those last 3 games.....Nebraska, at OSU, and at Wisconsin.  If they would win 2 of those, then the Nittany Lions are legit and roar would be restored to their glory days of the years gone by!

Have a good remainder of your week and if things get any clearer, I'll be sure to update them on Twitter.  Follow me on Twitter @SmittysSynopsis if you so desire......

Smitty

AA:  The end of this week and into the weekend look very interesting!  Probably a wet and raw time through Saturday followed by a cold NW flow for Sunday and Halloween.

A Difficult Forecast for the End of this Week

Just a quick note to share with y'all that the models are conflicting in their solutions for the end of this week.  As I mentioned over the weekend, there is a tremendous amount of heat and humidity that must be reckoned with as a sharp trough digs southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region.  First, here is how the Euro depicts the surface map and winds at a mile up for Friday morning.  This would be one cold, raw rainy day for our immediate area and snow in the mountains of PA and points northeast.

Now here is the GFS for the same period.  This shows a much more sheared out storm with a trough, but a much flatter solution than the Euro.  The GFS ensembles are even drier looking than this operational run. 

So which is correct??  I believe the ultimate solution lies closer with the Euro with a rainy and raw solution.  And 2-3 days later, another storm spins up on the Euro as shown below!  Both the GFS and the Euro agree on cold to rule the later part of this week through the weekend!

One thing for sure is that it will be the week's end and how can that be a bad thing?!?!  You wascally wabbits!

Smitty

AA:  Looking at a tough forecast for the end of this week.  It will be cold from Thursday on and getting colder through the weekend!

Late Next Week Will Turn Interesting

Although the modeling has been anything but consistent in the timing of a major event next weekend or late in the week, it has been very adamant about a MAJOR system forming as a result of yet another major trough amplification here into the east.  What I'd like to show y'all is the timing differences of the GFS all progged for the same time next Saturday morning.  The 1st map is from yesterday's 06Z run, the last is the latest 00Z run.  Here goes.....

06Z Run

12Z Run

18Z Run

00Z Run

Believe me on this as I cannot access the prior runs, but the 00Z run from Friday had a major nor'easter complete with PA mountain snows up through New England!  This latest run is a bit more phased bringing in warm ocean air from the Atlantic.  Either case, there is plenty of energy and cold air that must be resolved for next weekend!  Whether it be during Friday Night Lights, Trick or Treat Night, or the last weekend in October, someone in the eastern mountains WILL see their first real snows of the season....I do believe that.  And it could be as close to us as the higher elevations of Center and Union Counties of central PA.  Here are the coldest progged 850 temps for next weekend....cold!  Those 1 mile up temps translate to temps in the upper 30s and low 40s here in our area and near freezing for the mountains of PA!  But look west of the purple and note the flood of mild Pacific origin air across O Canada.  This slap of cold will be a transient shot as the pattern is still quite progressive.

By the way here is the Euro's take on next weekend!  First the 850 storm location...man if this were January I'd be licking my chops and touting a crippling blizzard-cane for Harrisburg!

And the 850 mb temps a short time after this storm passes us, but New England gets pounded with a heavy wet snow! I know...I know...who cares about New England!  Well my buddy Myers loves NE as do I (I'm partial to Maine, personally....interior over downeast), but his natural white carpet might get an early season start for Halloween weekend!

And of course, here is the infamous Woolly Bear's Take on next week's wx!

As for me I'm partial to the groundhog....PA's in particular!

And a final shout-out...not to any prognosticator, but to the 2011 Mid-Penn Conference Field Hockey Champion the CD Lady Rams!  In an extremely entertaining game that featured long breakaways, disallowed goals, a captain conference with officials, and OT, the Lady Rams defeated their nemesis (and everybody's for that matter), the perennially talented and outstanding LD Lady Falcon team by a 1-0 margin.  Congrats to the coaches and the players who earned their medals in a most exciting contest!

Have a great week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Major wx event sometime late next week or weekend.  Snow will fly nearby to the north, but not in our area...yet.  Then the coldest air yet with blustery winds.  But the cold will not hold as mild air will then erode the cold.  I consulted with my furry friends for this!  Also, congrats to the CDHS FHK team on their Mid-Penn Conference Championship!

Batten Down The Hatches

It is now becoming painfully obvious that the tropical troubles that are presently in the Gulf will phase with the strongly digging trough and create a powerful storm for our mid-week period.  I do not want to down play this event as gusty winds with fully foliated trees growing in saturated soil is a recipe for widespread uproots!  The present satellite pic from Sunday afternoon shows the gathering tropical storm in the Gulf.

Note the clear skies to the north of the disturbed wx west of Cuba and northeast of the Yucatan.  But this heat and humidity will fuel the digging shortwave and spin up one heck of a storm (988 mb or lower) that will begin to affect our wx by Tuesday afternoon.  Here is the surface map for Tuesday afternoon.

And then 12 hours later during the midday period of Wednesday!  The dome will be closed in Milwaukee or the fans will be bundled up in St. Louis for the start of the World Series Wednesday evening!  The blue line you see is the 0C line at a mile.  It will be cold to be sure in either location with the obligatory accompanying bone chilling breezes!

By Friday, the storm is pulling away up into the maritimes and the cold will be whisked into our region on strong and gusty NW winds.  Friday night football this upcoming week will be a cold evening to be sure!

Here is a better picture of the cold 850 mb temps.  From this point, I'd say temps in the low 40s at kickoff and falling into the upper 30s by the end of the game for Friday Night Lights!

The storm that will be developing for this week is compliments of a deep 500 mb trough that yesterday I believed would hold back and bundle some of its energy to "phase" more with the tropical energy and sure enough, it does seem that the GFS wants to do this.  The UKMET actually has an even deeper east coast bomb with greater phasing of the heat, humidity, and the upper air energy!  I still believe the bundling of the upper energy is still not completely being handled by the modeling at this point, but it is better than yesterday as we get closer to the actual event!

And as I said yesterday, this trough will not lock in, but is transient and by Sunday, temps will be moderating, but another deep trough is on the docket for the subsequent week as October will end up being slightly below normal temperature wise for the month.  That is a trough with an even colder source region of air.  Follow the isobars (black lines) up from PA and look where they originate!  This is a true shot of Arctic air if this model verifies for the last week of October!  Brrrrr...

But it is October!  And a precursor of things to come for the next several months of dark days, colder wx, and political bickering and grandstanding as we are about to reach the 1 year point to the next presidential election.  Hopefully we have just one last "lame duck" year of incompetence running the executive branch of government.  But who will be the challenging ticket to oust the present occupant of the White House?  Will it be Romney-Christie?  How about Cain-Gingrich?  Whomever it might be, they will have quite a mess to mop up.....and there is no doubt about that either!

Enjoy your Monday!

Smitty

AA:  Strong storm to develop mid-week followed by some cold weather for the end of the week.  After a brief warm-up the end of this weekend, next week will also be cold and getting colder it appears.  Just over one year until another presidential election!  Can you believe that!?!

Deep Mid-Week Trough Will Be Progressive

It is now appearing very likely that a major storm will develop and move up the east coast during the Tuesday/Wednesday time period.  If it were 2 months into the future, we'd be talking early season snows here in the Mid-Atlantic.  Seeing that it is only mid October, a rainy, windy, and raw scenario will play out during the mid-week period.  The model shown below is the location of the surface low late Tuesday evening.

As you can see, this particular model keeps the energy from the diving trough to our west separate from the tropical source of energy in the forms of heat and humidity.  Personally, I believe there will be a bit more phasing of the 2 energy packets creating quite a storm off the east coast....but maybe not as quite as nasty as the Canadian has depicted here in its solution for the Wednesday weather. That is a sub 990 mb low off the Carolina coast....prime position for a winter storm.  But what is lacking is the big high to the north.  The Canadian also has 2 centers of low pressure, but the one off the coast looks to be a bomb!  Take a looksie....

So what does all of this mean?  I believe we are looking at yet another 1-2" rain event to be clearing outta here by Thursday.  Here is the GFS' take on the precip for the period ending Thursday afternoon.  You might be saying that there is not that much forecasted rainfall for here in SE PA.  An astute observation would be my reply!  However, I do believe that there will be a bit more phasing of the diving jet and that more precip will fall over our region than the GFS currently believes.  Look at the moisture in FL....that should hook up with the northern energy and create a heavier rainfall than presently being modeled by the GFS.

Here is that energy as seen by the GFS for Tuesday afternoon.  It is my belief that the upper air energy might be a bit more bundled together (I circled the area in blue where the yellow is all spread out and not bundled more tightly), and thus be creating a stronger storm closer to the natural baroclinicity of the land/ocean interface.  Maybe that is me just wish-casting like I am sometimes accused of during the cold season!  Whatever the case may be, we will most certainly experience at the very least a nasty mid-week wx event to some degree.

Once the storm passes, the coldest air of this fall season will be in place for Friday/Saturday time period, so next week's version of Friday Night Lights will be the coldest of this season to date!  Look at the 850 temps for next Friday morning.  That is a major trough for anytime of the year!  We are also looking at our first major widespread frost for Friday morning and Saturday morning as well.  The growing season should officially be ended following the visit of this trough!

In closing, two 35-7 scores for our district's football teams this weekend.  Enough said there!  As for the Nittany Lions, they do seem to like to keep things close....don't ya think?  And for the NFL and the Eagles...I heard this stat driving into school the other day:  since the start of the present NFL playoff format, there have been exactly 100 teams that have had a record of 1-4 after 5 weeks.  And of those 100 teams, ONLY FIVE have ever made the playoffs (5%) with the slow start.  Thus, it doesn't look too good for the Eagles at the 3/4 pole of this horse race we call the NFL regular season.  I just found that rather interesting.  If this keeps up, maybe Andy Reid will be camped out on Wall Street along side some others looking for work?  Just a thought.....

Have a good remainder of the weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Another storm to affect us mid-week followed by good cool-crisp fall hunting wx!  Will Andy Reid be the "fall-guy" as is so often the case with thanks to these spoiled professional players?

Say Farewell to the Beautiful Fall Wx

Just as difficult as it was to say goodbye to the Phillies 2011 season, it will be equally as difficult to say goodbye to this current spell of beautiful fall wx that has been nothing short of idyllic.  With daytime highs near 80 accompanied with low humidity and overnight lows near 50, fall weather just doesn't get much better than what we just experienced.  But all good things must come to an end and this is true of our current splendid wx.  The high thin cirrus of today is a precursor to this event.  The wx will begin to deteriorate late Tuesday and Wednesday will be a rainy and raw day with once again, I fear, some tropical downpours as the system that is about to affect us has its origins in the tropics!  But before we get to Wednesday's map, lets look at how the 500 mb has been anomalously warm in our area as shown by the ensembles.

However, things will change with the upper air pattern and Wednesday will be the transition day as we experience a wet transition from the storm that has been slamming Florida for the last couple of days.  Again, with the origins of this system from the tropical Atlantic, we should expect to see some heavy downpours along with longer periods of a more stratiform type rain.

The SREFs are showing a very high probability of rain for Wednesday.  It's not very often when the ensembles have a 100% POP at 2.5 days out into the future.  Here are both the NAM and the GFS showing their high likelihood for rainfall Wednesday. 

I expect the truth of the heaviest rain be somewhere in between the maps above.  However, look for ~1.5 inches of rainfall to fall over most of PA by Thursday morning, the bulk of it falling during the daylight hours of Wednesday.

Then a shot of rather brisk and downright chilly fall weather will invade for next weekend.  We should experience much atmospheric instability as some sub-freezing air at 1 mile up will invade PA by Saturday.  The blue line is the 0C line at 1 mile up.  Some lake effect rain and snow showers should materialize over the high ground of northern PA.  Take a look....

Here is the cold anomaly as shown by the GFS ensembles for this upcoming weekend!

Then, after a very brief moderation in temps (I'm not calling it a "warm-up"), another more serious shot of even colder weather will take aim at the Mid-Atlantic as shown by the longer range model here for next Thursday.  If this actual run would verify, the plateau of PA would be experiencing a widespread wet snowfall which is not too early for the north country of PA.  It would not be too surprising if a few snowflakes would be observed in the mountains just north of Harrisburg, which is a tad early!

And here are the ensembles' anomalies for 10 days out.  The further out into time, the more towards "normal" the ensembles trend.  Thus, when one sees an output that is a couple standard deviations from "normal" at this time frame, it sends a fairly clear signal that, in this specific case, cold air will be on the move.

So there are the next  couple of weeks in a nutshell.  A fairly quick synopsis of the pattern leading to a demise of our beautiful fall wx.  Not too dissimilar from the demise of the Eagles season as according to the Elias sports record keepers, the Eagles are one of only 2 teams in NFL history to gain over 1,000 yards offensively in back to back games AND LOSE THEM BOTH!!! That is what happens when you turn the ball over FIVE TIMES in the NFL!  There is no way to win these contests by gift wrapping the rock for the opponent; just doesn't happen at this or really any level of football.  Protect the ball and your likelihood to win dramatically increases.  The Eagles are in trouble, no doubt about that forecast!

Enjoy your week!

Smitty

AA:  Nice spell of wx ends with a rainy Wednesday...then more typical fall like weather, albeit colder than normal.  It could be unsettled with some very cold air aloft.  Looks like northern PA might even see a widespread ground whitening snowfall middle of next week after numerous snow flurries this weekend!