Deep Mid-Week Trough Will Be Progressive

It is now appearing very likely that a major storm will develop and move up the east coast during the Tuesday/Wednesday time period.  If it were 2 months into the future, we'd be talking early season snows here in the Mid-Atlantic.  Seeing that it is only mid October, a rainy, windy, and raw scenario will play out during the mid-week period.  The model shown below is the location of the surface low late Tuesday evening.

As you can see, this particular model keeps the energy from the diving trough to our west separate from the tropical source of energy in the forms of heat and humidity.  Personally, I believe there will be a bit more phasing of the 2 energy packets creating quite a storm off the east coast....but maybe not as quite as nasty as the Canadian has depicted here in its solution for the Wednesday weather. That is a sub 990 mb low off the Carolina coast....prime position for a winter storm.  But what is lacking is the big high to the north.  The Canadian also has 2 centers of low pressure, but the one off the coast looks to be a bomb!  Take a looksie....

So what does all of this mean?  I believe we are looking at yet another 1-2" rain event to be clearing outta here by Thursday.  Here is the GFS' take on the precip for the period ending Thursday afternoon.  You might be saying that there is not that much forecasted rainfall for here in SE PA.  An astute observation would be my reply!  However, I do believe that there will be a bit more phasing of the diving jet and that more precip will fall over our region than the GFS currently believes.  Look at the moisture in FL....that should hook up with the northern energy and create a heavier rainfall than presently being modeled by the GFS.

Here is that energy as seen by the GFS for Tuesday afternoon.  It is my belief that the upper air energy might be a bit more bundled together (I circled the area in blue where the yellow is all spread out and not bundled more tightly), and thus be creating a stronger storm closer to the natural baroclinicity of the land/ocean interface.  Maybe that is me just wish-casting like I am sometimes accused of during the cold season!  Whatever the case may be, we will most certainly experience at the very least a nasty mid-week wx event to some degree.

Once the storm passes, the coldest air of this fall season will be in place for Friday/Saturday time period, so next week's version of Friday Night Lights will be the coldest of this season to date!  Look at the 850 temps for next Friday morning.  That is a major trough for anytime of the year!  We are also looking at our first major widespread frost for Friday morning and Saturday morning as well.  The growing season should officially be ended following the visit of this trough!

In closing, two 35-7 scores for our district's football teams this weekend.  Enough said there!  As for the Nittany Lions, they do seem to like to keep things close....don't ya think?  And for the NFL and the Eagles...I heard this stat driving into school the other day:  since the start of the present NFL playoff format, there have been exactly 100 teams that have had a record of 1-4 after 5 weeks.  And of those 100 teams, ONLY FIVE have ever made the playoffs (5%) with the slow start.  Thus, it doesn't look too good for the Eagles at the 3/4 pole of this horse race we call the NFL regular season.  I just found that rather interesting.  If this keeps up, maybe Andy Reid will be camped out on Wall Street along side some others looking for work?  Just a thought.....

Have a good remainder of the weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Another storm to affect us mid-week followed by good cool-crisp fall hunting wx!  Will Andy Reid be the "fall-guy" as is so often the case with thanks to these spoiled professional players?