Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Here Comes Cindy

By now, most of y'all are fully aware of the impending landfall of TS Cindy somewhere near the TX-LA border along the Gulf of Mexico.  But I've seen these plumes of deep tropical moisture translate north and east once they move towards more northern latitudes.  Since yesterday, the amounts of precip on all models have increased for our region.  But the exact location has been wavering back-forth between a I-80 to a US 40 line.  About the geographical middle ground between those 2 east-west roadways is KMDT.  Right now, the guidance would suggest about 0.75" of rain should fall, mostly during the daylight hours of Friday...here are the various models...

First the Euro...
Next the GFS...
And the final global model I'll share is the O'Canadian...
And the smaller gridded NAM...
So, it looks as if there will be some rain, but just how much is still a roll of the dice as of now.  Gut feeling deep moisture with approaching height falls that may lead to record coolness early next week, I believe we are looking at at least 0.50" with 1.5" not out of the question.  Time will tell...Here are all of the plots as of today with the track of the storm...
And here is how deep this trough will be at its greatest deviation from norms next week (Tuesday)...that is quite the trough for this time of year!
OK...back to more computer work here at school.  I just took my lunch to study this system and share some of the numerical guidance with my faithful readers (after a beautiful stroll outside in this glorious sunshine)!  So, with that said, I'll leave y'all with a Merle Haggard classic...enjoy!
And enjoy this beautiful afternoon!

Smitty

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