Remembering Agnes

45 years ago this June, a Gulf of Mexico storm evolved into a nasty tropical weather system that wreaked havoc all up and down the east coast of the US.  I was 9 years old at the time and I remember very well that weather during the early portion of our summer vacation.  Horses being led out of barns threatened by the rising creek that drained Silver Lake; the lake upon which our house was located.  (Ironically, we got very little water in our basement during Agnes!)  My parents' 1967 Chevy Impala flooded when parked down near Lewisberry.  Helping in Harrisburg removing mud from basements by wheel-barrowing debris up planks laid atop of the steps...Just so many memories of the impacts of Hurricane Agnes...and the Euro is hinting at a possible tropical development in the Gulf early next week...First a look back at Agnes in terms of the tropical rains...

The system essentially had a tremendous amount of overrunning precip here in PA and NY as cool dry air was attacked by this slug of tropical moisture.  A tremendous amount of rain fell over the Susquehanna watershed and that water had to flow past Harrisburg!  Take a gander...

The Walnut Street bridge used to be a one way auto bridge out of the city to the West Shore.  After Agnes, it became a footbridge only!

Now the track is was very different than where the Euro is hinting at a possible land-falling system...

Note where the Euro has a 40% probability of development next week...

And the total precip that the model is suggesting...follow the path of heavy rain from the Gulf into east TX...but from there...?

Also note in the graphic above the lack of precip here in south central PA.  But there will be a chance of us getting hit with a thunderstorm Sunday evening as a cold front will progress through the state in the early morning hours of Monday...A warm weekend followed by some pleasant O Canada air once again!

OK...gotta run.  But of course I'll leave you with a tune that might? be appropriate for our Gulf coast states at the very least sometime next week...

Smitty

AA:  Looking at possibly a tropical system forming in the gulf later next week.  As for here, just a chance of some heavier rains Sunday night into Monday as a cold front pushes across the state.  Definitely drying out from the last few days and the next several days...