Consistent Cindy

I'm doing back to back posts to show you how consistent the models are or are not from 18-24 hours ago.  I will show you the current outputs from the 3 global models and the one tighter grid model that I showed you yesterday.  Model consistency is something that leads to forecasting confidence.  For me, it's but a hobby; for many, it's their bread and butter!  In addition for this weather thing being my hobby and since I've been doing this weather watching thing all of my life since I was a "crumb-snatcher" (an affectionate term often used by my wife), when a plume of tropical moisture surges northward towards a diving trough from Canada, be aware of heavy downpours and training convection here in the Mid-Atlantic!  I've seen it many times before and will see it many times going forward.  So, here are the total precip outputs all valid for Saturday morning...the same time frame I showed you yesterday.

First the Euro...

Next the GFS...

And the O'Canadian...note the "dome" over the PA turnpike from Breezewood to Bucks County!

Lastly the higher resolution NAM...

I believe the message here is expect some fairly robust precip in these parts (much needed I might add) and there is a possibility, or more like a probability, that locations a mere 50-100 miles apart will see a vast difference in rainfall totals.  That is to be expected with convective, tropical systems.  Here is the most recent outputs from the storm tracks of the center of lowest pressure (Cindy's remnants) from numerous models...

And the top view of how Cindy and her associated deep moisture looked early this Thursday morning...the center of lowest pressure located just northeast of Houston...

So from observing the models and numerous past similar synoptic set-ups atmospherically, I expect Friday to be a "rain-out" with on/off heavy showers and even a few thundershowers with the bulk of the rain departing by mid-morning Saturday...by the way, this Sunday looks to be a "Chamber of Commerce kinda day!  Enjoy!

And enjoy this tune about what's happened to some extent the last several hours down in eastern Texas and other parts of the deep south...

Smitty

AA:  Warm and increasing humidity on Thursday sets the stage for a washout for Friday with about 1-2" of rain by Saturday morning.  Front pushes through and much drier air for Sunday through the bulk of next week...