Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
And the title is not referring to the cold front that will blast through our region sometime when "Joy To The World" is being sung at midnight mass tonight! Just ahead of the passing of the strong cold front, warm air will invade our region on some gusty SSW winds...look at these temp anomalies...
Wind gusts well over 30 mph will be occurring around midnight; first to help scour the low level cold air, then briefly spike temps to near 60°F prior to the temps crashing back to near 40°F by morning. This is a very well mixed air mass, so Christmas Day should be relatively mild with temps near 50°F for maxes. And a visit from the sun is guaranteed! Haven't had many of those sightings over the last 3 weeks! Here is a close-up map centered on Harrisburg indicating wind gusts well over the 30 knot threshold...so make sure those air filled Santas and Snowmen are tightly secured. There will be quite the pressure gradient accompanied with this frontal passage, so gusty conditions are also guaranteed!
But the real purpose of this posting is to quickly discuss the potential of winter weather arriving in spades early next week. There will be several wrinkles in quite a strong jet as arctic air bleeds and presses south and east into the Mid-Atlantic region. Below is the jet stream map for next Tuesday. Note the direct discharge of arctic air from...well...the arctic and then the baroclinic zone setting up very close to southern PA! (Location of the jet). In addition, the upper level divergence with the fast jet streaks should lead to several bouts of snowfall for us in the Monday-Wednesday time frame. The timing of each little wrinkle is simply to difficult at this time parameter!
The map below shows the moisture available for precipitation...precipitable water along with the sea level pressures. Note the low pressure over TN-MS-AL and that low, although weak should track across northern VA and then up towards Nova Scotia. This is the arctic boundary where just to the NW of the purple colors, very cold and dry air will begin to claim. A nice overrunning event should occur here across PA! The Euro has been pretty consistent in its solution over the last several runs.
Once this system passes, the model is sensing snow on the ground as some very cold anomalies are being modeled! Brrrr...you will hear about the polar vortex next week once again I do believe! Look at the UP of Michigan. That is from deep fresh snow pack from lake effect with this arctic air invasion.
The 850 mb temps are quite cold and high pressure will rule the roost for several days after the New Year! But don't get to used to that as many more jet disturbances look poised to wiggle along this arctic boundary and more snowfall is likely into the first part of January.
So that is my Christmas Week Synopsis and I'm sticking with it! And with the wind this evening, I believe you'll hear to wind chimes, trash cans, rafters, etc...but play this video below so you can hear The Bells On Christmas Day!
Merry Christmas y'all...and as always...THANKS for reading!
Smitty
AA: Windy this evening to get rid of this rain/wet/mess. Then a few clearer and drier days prior to some potentially nasty winter-like weather early next week. Then quite cold around New Years Day...and a bit beyond! Merry Christmas my friend!
For today's excellent adventure, we will simply look at the the 850 mb level of the atmosphere in terms of the temperatures over the next 10 days. It behooves one to look at the atmosphere one mile above earth's surface as the effects of friction and other surface interactions are minimized in order to see how the atmosphere is cycling. Let's start with the 850 mb temperature initialization for the Euro from last evening...
Generally mundane cold across the eastern CONUS (Continental United States)...quite typical for this time of year. There are a few pools of colder air in the sea of mundane cold; namely by Lake Winnipeg and north central PA, i.e. "God's Country"! You'll also note a few patches of above freezing air in Quebec. Now look at how that evolves by Monday evening...
A general moderation in the temps due to zonal flow across the CONUS. That is not a very cold map for late December! But a careful eye will note in the very NW corner of the map, some colder air lurks. 24 hours later, voila...
An energetic diving jet drives the sub-freezing air all the way into central TX. On the east side of the trough, warm air is forced northward into New England and all of the way into Ontario and Quebec. This upper air configuration should allow surface temps to approach 60°F for Christmas Eve! Santa will only need his union suit when visiting the sub-tropics of KMDT this Christmas! Then by Christmas Day, the trough tilts negatively and will spin up quite a storm that will deepen over the Great Lakes. For us, it means a rainy and mild Christmas Eve followed by a vigorous frontal passage bringing a gusty Christmas afternoon with temps falling back to December-like levels...
Look at that 20°C air streaming up from the tropics towards Cape Hatteras! The atmosphere is in quite a tumult this Christmas...but it returns to normal for a day with WNW flow for Christmas Day.
But that poleward bulge over IL will be over the northeast one day later with a return to milder air, but not as warm as Christmas Eve. If we can get any sun...and we should...we will see temps in the mid 50s for Friday...
The cold front will traverse the state Saturday and usher in much colder air as we anticipate the coming of 2015...
...and by the end of the 10 days the Euro runs, cold looks to be the rule across the most of the US with what appears to be a steady stream of cold air plunging from the arctic into the CONUS...and likely to continue well into January...
Now I know we don't live at 850 mb, although I've met a few people in my life that thought they did! But as I mentioned earlier, it gives a good feel as to what the air wants to do and how the various air masses will move. Hence, an idea of the getting a good feel for the sensible surface weather can be attained...I hope that makes sense to y'all.
As usual, I'll leave you with a little musical wish...
Enjoy your week's end and your Christmas week!
Thanks for reading!
Smitty
AA: Monitoring the air flow a mile up to see the cold moderate to a very mild Christmas Eve. Then one blustery colder Christmas Day followed by another couple of milder days. Then the bottom drops out early next week! Merry Christmas my friend!
...and all through the meteo house
All the numerical models were buzzin'
With the solutions all loused!
Sorry for that...
What numerical turmoil. There is so much energy that is diving into the eastern half of the continent that the modeling is frankly all over the place in terms of how this will play out in terms of the sensible weather! My oh my, this is a tricky call...especially for the impact of the timing of this MAJOR EVENT! I mean, look at that crazy prog from WPC from 6 days out...very complex to say the least!
Gut feeling at this time; limited precip (less than 1"; mostly wet not white here) with much wind! Cold for after Christmas with mostly cloudy conditions. But without all of the features yet to be sampled over the continent, the modeling is struggling greatly to hone in on a solution. Take the Euro for example...here it is 24 hours apart for the same time frame...looking at the 500 mb level.
Today...
Yesterday at the same time...
To many, I'm sure it looks largely the same. However, the trough was much deeper and further west than the run today. In fact, that has major implications for the surface features. Here is today's surface map from the Euro for Christmas Eve...
But yesterday's run had an Edmund Fitzgerald type storm heading for the Lakes!
It will be interesting to see how this all pans out. The meteorology this fall and early winter has been quite interesting. How many cyclones have come our way and then sat and spun over the Gulf of Maine for like what seems an endless eternity of clouds and gloominess. Couple that with solar winter (lowest sun angle and least amount of sun time) and the winter blahs are running prevalent without the big one! The Euro does build a glacier to our north by next weekend! Wow...
The GFS has the glacier further west... (a warmer solution to be sure, too)
You can clearly see similarities between the 2 premier models. The major takeaway for me is that there is not much white here in southern PA around KMDT. But this pattern is ripe with promise! There will be a major phasing storm next week in the eastern 1/3 of the US...of course the devil is in the details as is always the case in terms of the necessary cold air aloft to create a snow event for KMDT. The depth of the trough suggests cold is near; but it would be nice to have a large high to our north where there are none to be found. So I'm still looking for a green Christmas in these parts, but not nearly as warm as I would've thought yesterday with what was to be a major cyclone over central Ontario. I'm sure tomorrow afternoon will give us something different again...like some sunshine! Enjoy it as it will be hard pressed to locate once past Saturday!
OK, I've rambled enough...enjoy this Christmas ditty! It should get you movin'!
Smitty
AA: Tough call for Christmas Eve and Christmas. Still thinking wet; not white. And much cooler than what I thought yesterday.
As I sit here and tickle these keys with our advent wreath adorning our table, 3 candles afire, traditional Christmas music playing in the background, I too dream of a white Christmas. However, it seems to not be in the cards; not for this year. In fact, it might just get quite mild in these parts prior to the arctic opening up on PA. In fact, a white New Years Day is looking more and more likely. Remember, living here in the sub-tropics, a white Christmas is climatologically not a very frequent event. Take a look at this graphic...
If you would've asked me a few days back, I thought the probability was pretty good...over 70% as I believed cold would hold after a healthy snow event for this upcoming weekend. However, that system will simply progress off the east coast too far south from our area to have much of an impact. The map below shows the greatest precip for a 3 hour period as per the GFS this weekend...maybe enough to get the ground white...at best! A few flakes Saturday night is the most likely outcome...but come to think of it, aren't there always a few flakes Saturday night?
But a major...and I do mean major storm will phase and drive warm air up the coastal plain for Christmas Eve into our region...look at this cyclone!
Here's the warmth being advected northward thanks to this massive storm...the map shows temps above normal in degrees F. I wonder what the heck is happening around Cape Hatteras?
However, the bottom will drop out a few days later with some serious cold coming straight down from the north pole! Take a look at this! Note the streamlines! Now our air will take the scenic route through the Dakotas and MN, but still a real change of air mass for the day after Christmas.
And that serious cold remains until New Years Day...and by the looks of the climatological modeling, as far as the numerical eye can calculate! So I'm sorry to bring disappointing news as I know many of you like the prospects of having a white Christmas...but if you are a lover of snow, cold and winter wx in general, I believe the weeks following Christmas will not disappoint! With that said, maybe this song will be appropriate for us this Christmas living here in KMDT; aka the sub-tropics! Well, maybe a stretch...but...just saying! Enjoy!
Thanks for reading!
Smitty
AA: Typical Decemberish weather through the weekend. Near miss with storm Sat night off to the south. Not real strong either! Big storm to our west Tuesday makes Christmas Eve and Day above normal with temps...then the cold is comin' in spades...and hearts...and diamond...and even clubs!
This WILL be a major event and disruptive across all of the northeastern quadrant of the US. I am only showing 4 maps at this time; all from the Euro modeling as this has been rock solid over the last several runs. Whenever a closed low at the 500 mb level swings to the south of PA in the winter months, the snow forecast can be very tricky! The exact track of that upper low will be key. Here is the most recent output by the Euro for snowfall accumulations by the end of the storm which should occur for us around KMDT sometime Wed. midday...
The most intense precip will likely fall in the form of rain as the nor'easter strengthens off the Delmarva Tuesday afternoon...
The rain/snow line is plainly evident here with the 850 mb temps progged for the same time as the map above; Tuesday afternoon...you can see some dynamic cooling around Philly...the grayish color would be snowfall...
Here is the location of the 500 mb closed low 6 hours later for Tuesday evening...if that closed low would bundle over northern VA and not sheer with a center over SE PA, we'd be looking at a greater snowfall. As it is now, a general 3-6" event looks to be in the cards by when all is said and done.
I do believe this storm will surprise many folks as the GFS has the surface low further east and not nearly as phased. However, keep in mind that the GFS did not have any storm as little as 1.5 days ago! Just sayin'...
OK...go enjoy the Eagles-Seahawks game...heading off to family night...
Smitty
AA: Clear and cold tonight. Clouds increase for sloppy wintry storm Tuesday into Wednesday. Too tricky to call accumulations yet...but looks like a 3-6" potential...
After perusing all of the latest modeling overnight, it is now becoming clear that a major cyclone should develop and spin up the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts early to middle next week. Although I am now confident a storm will develop, the devil is in the details as to how the sensible weather will evolve from this storm system. I believe that my newly relocated Vermonter friend will get a blanket of white sufficient to remain until their mud season arrives next spring! I sent him a message suggesting that scenario this past Wednesday and was thrilled with the prospect of such an event. Once the storm passes, cold air will wrap in for the remainder of the week. Let me just show you all of the global modeling for the time period late Tuesday afternoon. These will be surface progs...1st the GFS which has finally come around to the other global models that have had some sort of a system for the last several runs...
GFS...it has a 999 mb low over Nantucket...
The Euro...it has a 994 mb just east of LBI...
The O Canadian...it goes a bit wild and really phases the northern branch pulling the storm well inland into New England...probably a bit too much overdone...
The "I'm Turning Japanese" (The Vapors...1980) model...the weakest of the bunch...
And this is how the Brits resolve this North American storm system...a 996 located at the mouth of the Susquehanna...
And for any of you that might have marine interests, here is the pounding surf along the east coast as the storm develops...Cape Cod and points north will be rockin' to be sure...
If time permits, I'll come back and try to hone in on the details, but for us here around KMDT, we are looking at a potential snowfall; however, I believe the snowfall jackpot with this go around will be places from Binghamton to Burlington...gut call from 3-4 days out. Slop storm for us here in the sub-tropics...
OK...gonna roll, but I'll leave you with a tune I just heard the other day that really set my mood for the day..I really do like the Brothers Allman and their unique sound..."Now and then I feel a cold wind blowin' through my achin' bones...I think you'll enjoy...
Enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Wet Saturday, drying Sunday. Watching the coast for nor'easter development Tuesday-Wednesday.
From the political upheaval on both the state and the federal level to the plunge of oil and ultimately gasoline prices to having a "so close but yet so far" highly improbable intra-district PIAA District 3 AAAA football final, I believe November 2014 will be remembered for its premature winter-like conditions and the upcoming potentially disruptive Thanksgiving storm to cap off the month. Lets take a look...
Sorry...I digress. Now onto the month that is nearly behind us...look at the deviations from normal for the last week and the last 2 weeks! Quite a cold month across the bulk of the nation!
Last 7 days...
Last 14 days...
This November was a real slap in the face as our recent month of October had a nearly opposite look in terms of chill; mostly missing across the CONUS...
And with close scrutiny of the above graphic, the only cool places compared to the norms were FL and the Great Lakes. Remember, the Great Lakes lost their ice from last winter not until very late in the spring; in fact Superior still had ice into June! This kept the lakes cooler than normal which made this lake effect outbreak that Buffalo just experienced even that more impressive! Here is a nice depiction of why Lake Effect occurs...
With the anomalously cold air straight from the arctic along with the near perfect trajectory of the winds over Lake Erie, locations just south of Buffalo NY were rocked with persistent bands of white out conditions complete with thunder and lightning that will be long remembered by those who are hardened winter folk...the below radar loop is about 3/4 of a day! Unreal!
The view from topside was quite awesome as well...compliments of the MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer)....
And after this brief warm up Sunday and Monday (let's go for a near record max of 70ºF on Monday), the potential exists for a surge of arctic cold once again to spin up a Thanksgiving storm that will impact the major metros during the busy travel days of Thanksgiving time...of course the devil is in the details, but the Euro has been relatively consistent over its last several runs for the snowfall placement across the Mid-Atlantic and northeast! The map below valid by Wednesday evening...
One thing for sure, cold again will be served as the arctic air is directed towards the lower 48; this time more eastward than the last bout...that is quite a negatively tilted 500 mb trough that should spin up quite a blow along the coast if this skillful Euro model verifies!
So it appears that at the very least this November will end up quite cold for us here in the KMDT region and could be record setting in more ways than one. However, if you think this is the onset of never ending winter weather from now until March...well...it's not! The 1st week or 2 of December look to relax winter's grip...take a look...here's the GFS's 5 day average temps centered on the "Day of Infamy".
OK...that is all...enjoy your Thanksgiving week and what remains of this crazy weather month of November! And as always at this time of year...a great time to reflect on all of our blessings in life. Maybe this Johnny Lang tune will assist you...
Smitty
AA: Record warmth Monday? Rain ends...then watching a potential coastal storm for the Wed-Thursday time period that would likely bring snow here...then quite cold to end the month!
Add another log to the fire...stoke the coals...fire the furnace before Thanksgiving...any and all of these will be heard throughout PA as a bona fide Arctic outbreak will be occurring over the next 2 weeks across most of the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48. In addition, some serious snow pack will begin to be placed across most of O Canada and the northern tier of the US as a somewhat vigorous sub-tropical ridge tries to hold sway across the western Atlantic and create a storm track that will undecidedly have many places with a substantial snow pack prior to Thanksgiving Day! This is all in the name of ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING!
To the maps...1st the next 10 days for temps as per the Euro for KCXY (CapCity Airport since I'm a West Shore kinda guy!)...looks mid-winterish to me! The horizontal red line is freezing.
And now, lets look at 5 day increments of temp...1st for the period ending this Friday evening...and this includes the mild days of today and Veterans Day! Note the ominous "purple" lurking in the northern plains...pointed right at us! Also keep in mind that these graphics are in °C so one can roughly double the numbers to determine °F...
Now the 5 day period ending the 21st...next Friday...
Here is the coldest 5 day period for us here in PA...essentially the next work week...M-F! That is incredible for a FIVE DAY AVERAGE for temps... Brrrr...
The overnight control run of the Euro was quite bullish for snowfall in these parts...
But it has come to its senses with the midday run...looks more reasonable to me, but certainly hinting at some fierce cold for this time of year on tap...
So there you have it...looking as if the cold season will arrive a week or 2 prior to Thanksgiving...hard to believe as we had quite a nice fall to this point in terms of temps and precip...no tropical troubles, no early freezes. In fact, my wife's green thumbs' efforts were still blooming up until the hard freeze we experienced Sunday night. But now we transition quickly to the cold season...with the million dollar question being is this what the winter forebodes or is this just an anomalous cold shot? From all I read, it appears that this cold pattern might be perpetual through the winter months...time will tell. Which means I'll be drinking some cold coffee and cold tea this winter as my ADD kicks in when I'm in a flow state perusing this weather stuff...so I'll leave y'all with a Cowboy Junkies tune...Cold Tea Blues...a nice acoustic bluesy song! Enjoy...
And enjoy your Veterans'/Armistice Day...which coincidentally there was a major blizzard back around the WW II times in the Midwest on this day I believe...but if any of you are interested, simply google it...you don't need to know it to read about it! Oh well...
Smitty
AA: The cold will be large and in charge for the next 2-3 weeks of November in these parts!
