A November to Remember

From the political upheaval on both the state and the federal level to the plunge of oil and ultimately gasoline prices to having a "so close but yet so far" highly improbable intra-district PIAA District 3 AAAA football final, I believe November 2014 will be remembered for its premature winter-like conditions and the upcoming potentially disruptive Thanksgiving storm to cap off the month.  Lets take a look...

Sorry...I digress.  Now onto the month that is nearly behind us...look at the deviations from normal for the last week and the last 2 weeks!  Quite a cold month across the bulk of the nation!

Last 7 days...

Last 14 days...

This November was a real slap in the face as our recent month of October had a nearly opposite look in terms of chill; mostly missing across the CONUS...

And with close scrutiny of the above graphic, the only cool places compared to the norms were FL and the Great Lakes.  Remember, the Great Lakes lost their ice from last winter not until very late in the spring; in fact Superior still had ice into June!  This kept the lakes cooler than normal which made this lake effect outbreak that Buffalo just experienced even that more impressive!  Here is a nice depiction of why Lake Effect occurs...

With the anomalously cold air straight from the arctic along with the near perfect trajectory of the winds over Lake Erie, locations just south of Buffalo NY were rocked with persistent bands of white out conditions complete with thunder and lightning that will be long remembered by those who are hardened winter folk...the below radar loop is about 3/4 of a day!  Unreal!

The view from topside was quite awesome as well...compliments of the MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer)....

And after this brief warm up Sunday and Monday (let's go for a near record max of 70ºF on Monday), the potential exists for a surge of arctic cold once again to spin up a Thanksgiving storm that will impact the major metros during the busy travel days of Thanksgiving time...of course the devil is in the details, but the Euro has been relatively consistent over its last several runs for the snowfall placement across the Mid-Atlantic and northeast!  The map below valid by Wednesday evening...

One thing for sure, cold again will be served as the arctic air is directed towards the lower 48; this time more eastward than the last bout...that is quite a negatively tilted 500 mb trough that should spin up quite a blow along the coast if this skillful Euro model verifies!

So it appears that at the very least this November will end up quite cold for us here in the KMDT region and could be record setting in more ways than one.  However, if you think this is the onset of never ending winter weather from now until March...well...it's not!  The 1st week or 2 of December look to relax winter's grip...take a look...here's the GFS's 5 day average temps centered on the "Day of Infamy".

OK...that is all...enjoy your Thanksgiving week and what remains of this crazy weather month of November!  And as always at this time of year...a great time to reflect on all of our blessings in life.  Maybe this Johnny Lang tune will assist you...

Smitty

AA: Record warmth Monday?  Rain ends...then watching a potential coastal storm for the Wed-Thursday time period that would likely bring snow here...then quite cold to end the month!