'Twas the Week Before Christmas...

...and all through the meteo house
All the numerical models were buzzin'
With the solutions all loused!

Sorry for that...

What numerical turmoil.  There is so much energy that is diving into the eastern half of the continent that the modeling is frankly all over the place in terms of how this will play out in terms of the sensible weather!  My oh my, this is a tricky call...especially for the impact of the timing of this MAJOR EVENT!  I mean, look at that crazy prog from WPC from 6 days out...very complex to say the least!

Gut feeling at this time; limited precip (less than 1"; mostly wet not white here) with much wind!  Cold for after Christmas with mostly cloudy conditions.  But without all of the features yet to be sampled over the continent, the modeling is struggling greatly to hone in on a solution.  Take the Euro for example...here it is 24 hours apart for the same time frame...looking at the 500 mb level.
Today...

Yesterday at the same time...

To many, I'm sure it looks largely the same.  However, the trough was much deeper and further west than the run today.  In fact, that has major implications for the surface features.  Here is today's surface map from the Euro for Christmas Eve...

But yesterday's run had an Edmund Fitzgerald type storm heading for the Lakes!

It will be interesting to see how this all pans out.  The meteorology this fall and early winter has been quite interesting.  How many cyclones have come our way and then sat and spun over the Gulf of Maine for like what seems an endless eternity of clouds and gloominess.  Couple that with solar winter (lowest sun angle and least amount of sun time) and the winter blahs are running prevalent without the big one!  The Euro does build a glacier to our north by next weekend!  Wow...

The GFS has the glacier further west... (a warmer solution to be sure, too)

You can clearly see similarities between the 2 premier models.  The major takeaway for me is that there is not much white here in southern PA around KMDT.  But this pattern is ripe with promise!  There will be a major phasing storm next week in the eastern 1/3 of the US...of course the devil is in the details as is always the case in terms of the necessary cold air aloft to create a snow event for KMDT.  The depth of the trough suggests cold is near; but it would be nice to have a large high to our north where there are none to be found.  So I'm still looking for a green Christmas in these parts, but not nearly as warm as I would've thought yesterday with what was to be a major cyclone over central Ontario.  I'm sure tomorrow afternoon will give us something different again...like some sunshine!  Enjoy it as it will be hard pressed to locate once past Saturday!

OK, I've rambled enough...enjoy this Christmas ditty!  It should get you movin'!

Smitty

AA:  Tough call for Christmas Eve and Christmas.  Still thinking wet; not white.  And much cooler than what I thought yesterday.