Severe Potential Update

Just a very quick update as the SPC has updated their graphics as well.  There is now a moderate risk area outlined that is just to the south and west of the immediate Harrisburg area.  Take a looksie...

Very warm temps have made their way up to central MD and the DC region.  The higher dew point temps have been held at bay due to the persistent onshore low level easterly wind from the cooler Atlantic Ocean.  That is quite a surface low pressure over northern Ohio!  Note the red isotherms pushing northward just to the west of the Chesapeake Bay!  Our dew points remain in the upper 50s.

As a result of the warmer and much more humid air, the CAPE values are also increasing.  Here's the latest map. 1,500 J/Kg is the usual threshold for strong thunderstorm development.  Values much higher indicate a near certainty!  2,500 J/Kg would be considered extreme...as in south central VA at this time.

And here is how the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) has changed since 10 am this morning...

We are still looking for heavy rain to break out later this afternoon into the evening hours.  Here is the rainfall total as per the NA from the wx system that will pass through Friday evening...Again, very difficult to model exact locations as to where the banding thunderstorms materialize...

Enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Still monitoring the severe wx threat later today...