Severe Wx Potential For Friday PM

This is simply a quick "heads-up" as to the very real potential of severe weather affecting us in the Harrisburg area for Friday afternoon and into very early Saturday morning.  A vigorous surface storm with its attendant fronts will materialize thanks to strong upper air support especially at the 500 mb level as shown below...

The closed low in the mid levels will push a strong jet over central PA late Friday afternoon further enhancing the upward motion that is necessary for severe wx events.  In addition, a triple point (occluded, warm, cold fronts meet) will saunter across PA late Friday afternoon and should be the focus of the greatest surface forcing that will produce heavy precip...Take a looksie.....

The precip that affects us here in PA will come in 2 stages I do believe...the first will be overrunning from the warm front advection and the 2nd bout will be convective as the cold front and triple point low passes over the state.  Take a look at the precip potential for Friday into Saturday...I'd say 1-2" is a very real likelihood by Saturday noon for KMDT!

And the Storms Prediction Center seems fairly confident about the possibility of severe wx.  That is a rather large area for "slight" from 2 days out for the SPC.

And note that we are in the 30% region for severe wx to occur within 25 miles of any point within the shaded region.  The majority of the "red" area is associated with the passage of the cold front Friday evening into early Saturday.

So just a quick heads up as to the severe wx potential....and have a good end of your work week!

Smitty

AA:  Potential for heavy rain and severe weather for Friday pm into early Saturday.