The Pattern...It Is a-Changin'

With sincere apologies to singer/songwriter Bob Dylan, the pattern; it is a-changin'!  I'd like to quickly state why I believe the hounds of winter of getting ready to pounce south and east, probably by the first week of December.  We have enjoyed a rather serene and placid November to this point, and frankly with the little bump in the November road this mid-week, November 2011 will be one that was easy to take!  Sure, we had some cold mornings, but the afternoons often rebounded nicely with daytime maxes frequently achieving above normal status.   So let me quickly explain why I believe the pattern, it is a-changin'.

First, there is a prolific amount of intense cold available to mix into the pattern as Alaska has been suffering its coldest November in recent memory.  How does -40ºF sound for Fairbanks, AK.  By the way that would also be -40ºC since that is the only place on both commonly used temp scales where they express the same numerical value and heat energy quantity...sorry I again digress.  But that is some serious cold and that dense low level air is going to sooner than later get involved with this pattern!  Take a look at the cold in our 49th state!  The map is for next Monday.  During the last 3 weeks or so, the Polar Vortex has been established over AK with no signs of moving.  It is now appearing to indicate movement to the SE while the pool of warmer than normal air is advecting eastward towards Greenland.  If you are a lover of winter weather, this is a good sign.

Secondly, the ensembles in the medium range are all convoluted and far from agreement.  This is often the case, especially in the winter when the cold dense air is seldom handled properly by the numerical modeling.  These mathematicians and physicists who design and program these models are clearly incredible intellectuals, however, binary number crunching has not yet been able to adequately model the movement of extremely cold, dense air.  That is why the AO and NAO are so scattered in their ensemble progs as seen below.  Here the NAO progs...look at the control and how it tanks!  Good news if you like winter...

As does the AO....

And remember; the trend is your friend.  The last 4 runs have the AO dropping off a cliff once to next weekend!

Third, the snow cover is quickly increasing in the northern hemisphere.  Take a look for yourselves.  The anomalous amount of snow and ice is quickly increasing when compared to the last 10 years in our hemisphere...and we all know that winning breeds winning (CD) and snow breeds snow!

Here is a graphic representation of the extensive snow and ice cover as of Saturday, November 19, 2011.  That Alaskan cold will be able to slide right down into the lower 48 without much modification of its lack of heat energy properties; thus another supporting reason for my contention that winter is knock, knock, knockin' on central PA's door......so sorry Bob!

Lastly, whenever a major amplification of the jet stream occurs, this is the atmosphere's way to announce a pattern regime change!  In America, we have numerous debates, quarreling within Congress, demonstrations in the streets prior to a regime change (one can only hope...), but in the atmosphere a major buckling of the jet stream often announces a major pattern change.  And I believe this map below qualifies as a meaningful and substantial amplification of the jet!  Look at that contorted creature for next weekend!  With this configuration, I believe Highway 61 might be revisited with winter's worst...even all the way down to Dixie...once again, sorry Mr. Dylan!  Wow!

So that is my story and I'm sticking to it.  December looks to become cold and potentially stormy sooner rather than later.  For those of you who are lovers of winter storms, December most certainly holds potential.  I actually believe, dare I say, that a White Christmas in these parts looks likely!  For those that don't like winter weather events, you can hope that once again my thesis for the upcoming month proves worthless...and about as insightful as drafting a fantasy football team with the 3 worst QBs (or so it seems) this year.  Heck, Tebow would have been a better choice than my guys...but that is a different story for a different day.  So with my occassional referencing to Mr. Dylan above, I thought I'd leave y'all with this ditty from 1964 and still quite relevant in today's world....enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  It looks to me for numerous reasons that December will turn cold and stormy; probably within the 1st week of December!