Beautiful Thanksgiving Weekend and then...?

After this damp and downright wet pre-Thanksgiving period, the Thanksgiving holiday weekend looks to be beautiful for late November weather.  Temperatures will moderate from a rather breezy and cool Turkey Day to above normal for the weekend.  The progged surface map from HPC shows that a large area of high pressure will dominate the wx over the eastern US through the weekend.  Here is the map for Friday; no wx issues for high school playoff football this upcoming Friday night to be sure!

Before we get to that point, however, we have to receive our obligatory moderate to heavy rain event for this month.  Seeing that we are living through the wettest year as recorded officially at KMDT, why should November be a below normal month in terms of precip?  We could be looking at close to 2 inches of rain when all is said and done by Wednesday morning; the heaviest of the rainfall coming overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  There is mucho energy with this system as evidenced by the thunderstorms breaking out over eastern TX at this time (see blue circle).  There is also a deep moisture feed from the tropical Pacific (red arrow) adding plentiful water vapor for our obligatory heavy rain event for this month.  Take a look...

HPC paints a widespread area of 1.25" rainfall over PA with amounts over 2.0" not too awfully distant from KMDT!  It would not be out of the question to hear thunder sometime overnight into Wednesday in our parts.  There is ample energy to support such convection with a strong jet flying overhead.

Then our attention will shift to the end of the weekend where the modeling is difficult to ascertain to say the least.  Both the Euro and GFS are depicting a powerful trough to dig deep into the eastern US.  How the sensible weather plays out is impossible to determine at this point.  I do believe that there will be a severe wx outbreak in the southeast US, say AL, GA, MS, or even SC.  But this is one deep trough creating a cutoff low over the lower Ohio Valley.  Unsettled weather will be in place from late Sunday into Tuesday and possibly beyond depending on how progressive the trough is.  Here is the deep trough as shown by the Euro...

And now the GFS...

And the upper air support for the development of above storminess from the GFS...

The above map shows that there is plenty of energy and vorticity remaining to create a secondary storm system somewhere in the Gulf Coast states or the waters of the southeast Atlantic coast and get pulled northward once the cold air becomes established.  If that occurs, we are looking at a substantial snowfall for somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast early next week.  Even HPC's prog for next Monday shows the potential of a "triple point" low forming somewhere in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras; only time will tell.  With that high pressure over Quebec, things could get interesting...

As for the very short term, the light rain, drizzle, fog and dampness creates a unique quiet in Penn's Woods.  Few creatures scurry about, except those disturbed by my 2 hounds gallivanting wildly about, loving life in the Michaux Forest!  Unfortunately, vistas are obscured by the clouds, but the softness and the stillness of the forest persists without the dry crunching of leaf litter or twigs snapping underfoot.  Eerily peaceful in the woods!  While driving back to my warm and dry abode, with a hot cup of coffee in tote, I listen to the words of John Denver's "Rocky Mountain High".  That's a great tune and the lyrics from the 4th verse are awesome, perfect for a Thanksgiving week reflection for all of us...especially those of us who love and respect nature and spend quality time outdoors.  Here are those words and a video of John Denver performing on the Tonight Show from 1972 his fairly well-known song:

Now he walks in quiet solitude the forest and the streams
Seeking grace in every step he takes
His sight has turned inside himself to try and understand
The serenity of a clear blue mountain lake

Have an outstanding Thanksgiving holiday!

Smitty

AA:  Wet through Wednesday (possibly 2.0"+ but 1.25" is much more likely), then clearing, breezy and coolish for Turkey Day, becoming warmer through the weekend.  Then watching the wx get wild for early next week.  Happy Thanksgiving my friend.