Seeing that Europe is in the financial news EVERY DAY of recent times, I thought I'd give the Euro some press time as well. What we will do with this post is focus exclusively on the European model and look at how well it forecasts the upcoming week of weather. I will post maps for every 2 other day. Another reason why I am doing this is because its solutions seem to be more plausible with the day to day sensible weather as opposed to our lovely GFS which I believe is completely out of touch with the severity of the cold that is poised to make a run at the Mid-Atlantic specifically and the eastern part of North America in general. Let's first look at the "initialization" of the atmosphere in terms of the 850 mb temps (colors) and the mean sea level pressure (black lines or isobars). The initialization is very important in numerical modeling as to this data is what every subsequent action and reaction of the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere will respond. As you can clearly see, there is our huge area of high pressure over the eastern third of the US providing awesome weather for tonight's AAAA semifinal games in District 3 PIAA football. This evening's weather will be in completely and total stark contrast to what next week's version of Friday Night Light's will offer!
By Sunday, we can now see our area of high pressure departing eastward into the Atlantic. This will then allow the weakness or trough from the west to make inroads towards the Mississippi Valley by the early part of next week. With this deep and energetic trough, the Euro spins up two surface lows; one over the Great Lakes and one down over Dixie rounding the trough. A front will be slowly grinding its way towards PA Sunday and rain should break out over most of the commonwealth by nightfall. This rain will be scattered and showery in nature, but quite frankly we need no more rain for awhile!
By Tuesday afternoon, all eyes will be peered towards the Gulf of Mexico as this trough is now really going to work and develop a surface low over the deep south. How that complex low actually develops and ultimately its path will determine how much rain OR snow we will receive here in PA. With all of that cold air just to our NW, one must be very wary about the potential synoptic set-up for a potential nor'easter for the middle of next week. Right now, odds are against that....but we must keep watch!
By Thursday, the action will have moved off to our northeast. Heavy snow will most certainly be in the cards for the Adirondacks into central and northern New England. Again, depending upon how the pattern evolves the surface low will have a major impact on how our sensible weather manifests itself for the middle part of next week. As of this writing, I would venture to say that it appears as if we will have a rain changing to some snow showers scenario as well as some minor lake effect for the northern part of PA.
By next Friday, the cold will be on the move! Blustery and cold conditions will prevail as the cold air advects SE through the Mid-Atlantic. Sometime early on Friday, an Arctic front will have passed through delivering the coldest air of the early winter season for next week's high school football games. A much more impressive lake effect outbreak will be occurring and some of the flurries and snow squalls could make it as far SE as to be seen in the Harrisburg area. With that tight pressure gradient to our north, blustery will be the operative wx word next Friday with wind chills mainly in the teens and 20s for PA!
By the end of next weekend, more cold air is poised to move into the eastern part of the states. The passing shot of cold for Friday into Saturday will be lifting out; however, note the Arctic high located over Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. That burly high means business and is of true Arctic origin. Only time will tell how that affects our weather here in the eastern part of the US. And that will be a different story for a different day!
In closing, the Euro zone modeling looks to have a clue for this pattern that is becoming very active and stormy for locales in our latitudes. Climatologically, it is that time! Unfortunately, it does look like the Euro zone has a clue as to how to manage their spending, entitlement programs, and ultimately their debt...I just hope the US is not in that chain of dominoes!
Enjoy the remainder of your holiday weekend!
Smitty
AA: Very nice weather Friday, Saturday. Transition through Monday with showers. Very unsettled through mid-week. Major cold front passes through Friday ushering in winter like weather for next weekend! Let's hope Euro rightens their ship someway, somehow!
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