Wet First Part of the Week (05-02-2011)

Upon looking at the modeling this morning, it appears that the first 3 days of this work week will be damp with the greatest likelihood of rain and storms falling Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The front that is shown to our west will slowly progress through our area, but get stalled basically over eastern PA.  Then a series of storms, one fairly vigorous Tuesday afternoon and evening will move over PA up into New England.  The map below shows Monday's forecast:

As for the short range ensembles, they suggest a bit of rain after dark overnight, but a shower could fall at any time.  Again, the timing for tomorrow looks to be afternoon and evening, although the consensus is not obvious.  What is agreed upon is that yet another 1.0" rain event looks to be nearly certain for Tuesday and into Wednesday.  Yesterday, it appeared that snow might actually fall to the NW of the storm track in the mountains of PA.  Snow will still be observed, however, in the northern and western mountains of PA.  The modeling has backed off of that scenario for the most part, but the air behind the front is quite cold for this time of year!

As for the 2nd week of May, it looks cool and damp as promised.  The maps below are both the European"s (left.....figures) and American's model interpretation of the mid-atmosphere (500 mb) anomaly for the middle of next week!  Cool looks to rule May.......

Have a good Monday!

Smitty

AA:  Damp and possibly stormy for 1st part of the week.....East v CD meet in question.......cool and damp to persist through next week!