Adding Insult to Injury (05-06-2011)

The Ohio Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley are experiencing some moderate and major flooding that has been brought on by the recurrent bouts of severe weather in the nation's heartland.  As I opined about a couple of week's ago, the pattern is one that continues to support the repetition of numerous showers and thunderstorms in that part of the country.  That will not change over the next 5-10 days.  Copious amounts of rain will fall in areas that quite frankly just don't need anymore!  As you can see below, the temps for the Ohio Valley is forecast to be several degrees above normal for the middle of next week.  That also means a surge of higher dewpoint air to boot.  In addition, a strong cyclone is forecast to spin up over the southern plains and slowly move north and fill through next week.  As a result, strong thunderstorms should develop in the "active" sector of the storm, that being to the ESE of the cyclone's central lowest pressure. 

The large blue area over the northern plains and Rockies will move east and forcibly push the warm air right out of the picture, not too different than what the Bruins are doing to the Flyers thus far.  This brief warm up has no chance to hang, analogous to overmatched NL East batters facing Doc Halladay!  By next Sunday, there is strong agreement among the ensembles that the cold will invade the SE US and bring continued unsettled conditions to our region on a persistent NW flow.

The map below shows the Euro's take on the situation by next Tuesday evening.  I outlined in blue the area that should have the highest risk of severe weather as the cold front marches eastward during the mid-week period.  I believe that most of PA will be spared of any severe weather, especially the locations east of the Appalachians as cold air damming is entrenched from the anomalous cold air that is banked to our north and the strong ocean vortex to our NE.

With such strong agreement from 10 days out with the ensembles, this is beginning to look like a "sure bet"!  This is quite a deep trough for this time of the year, and the numerous runs of the modeling are in significant agreement for this medium range period.  Frost could be a potential for later next week, but that is a different story for a different day....

In closing, and speaking of sure bets, I received some highly insightful information concerning the 137th Run for the Roses.  I was told through this tout that Midnight Interlude, the Baffert trained 3 yr old colt with 4 bullet workouts on all different track surfaces is the one to beat in the greatest 2 minutes in all of sports.  Maybe he will see a repeat of the Santa Anita Derby?!?  Couple that pick with Soldat, who "bounced" in the Florida Derby last time out, and Master of Hounds, the turf-running import from Europe (I heard you can't go wrong with European imports....St. Pauli, Becks, Guinness, even Heineken....sorry I digress.....), and who knows, you may be styling in your own "Winner's Circle" this Saturday afternoon.  As for me, I will be

sitting back, but not in a rose pink Cadillac, making bets on Kentucky Derby Day.....and with apologies to Mick Jaegger, trying to score the WPS and exacta of the not too "Dead Flowers" of the Run for the Roses!

 

 

Have a great week's end!

 

Smitty

 

AA:  Cool unsettled weekend, brief warm up next week, severe wx to our SW, and then cool again into next weekend....confidence is high...but not with my Derby Picks from my secret "Tout"!