Severe Weather Outbreak Potential for Middle of Next Week (05-03-2011)

There will be quite a bit of weather to observe over the next several days, but the pattern is such that the middle of next week looks potentially troublesome once again.  After a cool and damp persistent NW flow over the northeastern US through this upcoming weekend, a brief period of warmth will surge NE, much like what occurred today.  And although today's threat is nothing to sneeze at, next week's outbreak may be whooping cough!  A spectacular surge of warm humid air will set the stage for an advancing powerful cold front that can be depicted with the maps shown here.  In this first map, note the strong cyclone (992 mb) up in Quebec and its attendant cold front with copious amounts of rain falling from Albany to Austin.

In the map below, we are looking at the ensembles for next Wednesday.  Please note the ridge over the eastern US allowing for the high dewpoint air to surge NE.  Also note the blue area back over the mid-west.  This is the anomalous cold air mass that strengthens as it progresses east by the second map below for next Saturday morning.

Note how the "blue-blob" advances SE with time.  A strong cold front would be pushing ahead of the "blue-blob"!

It appears as if May looks to be again quite volatile as is usual for this time of year.  However, with the great contrast in air masses we are seeing forecast to develop for next week, another major outbreak of severe wx could be in the making.  This graphic shows the current number of tornadoes to this point in the year on the black line.  Let's say by next weekend (May 15), we are at or above 1250 tornadoes for the US.  This is one forecast that I hope I am completely offbase; however many of my closest friends will inform me that any severe weather that might have developed for next week just received my kiss of death!

As for Derby Day at Churchill Downs, the morning will dawn cool and bright, but an advancing shortwave from the NW may increase clouds by the Run for the Roses.  Hopefully, you'll have the winner (not Uncle Mo!) and sunny fortunes for the first Saturday in May!

Enjoy your mid-week!

Smitty

AA:  Potential for some more nasty storms the middle of next week!