Hints of Summer Begin This Week

It's beginning to appear as if summer will make an appearance prior to the solstice in the eastern half of North America.  The longer range modeling is suggesting that a ridge will establish itself in the eastern third of the US while cooler air will dominate the western half of the US.  While the Euro and the GFS do have different solutions as to how this evolves, both are hinting at a warm start to June as a ridge is forecast to develop over the eastern US.  This jet configuration will establish a SW flow at all levels to usher in heat and humidity from the lower Mississippi Valley towards the NE.  There is one major fly in the ointment however with this solution and that is the warm anomalies over SE O' Canada.  This tends to promote surface high pressure which could establish a "back-door" frontal play as warm humid air lies just to our SW.  If this would occur, temps would be much cooler and precip much higher in the first week of June.  I'm not seeing that occurring however and will go with the bulk of the ensembles suggesting a northern displaced jet stream becoming established.  The maps below show the anomalies and the various jet stream runs of the ensembles during that 1st week of June.

Before we get to the Memorial Day Weekend, this upcoming week once again suggests that PA will enjoy above normal precip as an approaching front from the upper Midwest dies out over us here in the east.  This atmospheric weakness will allow for numerous showers and T-storms to develop essentially at any time during the Monday-Friday period.  Temps will be much warmer than last week's however and the precip should not be as great.  The maps below show the accumulated precip through next weekend and the warmer than normal temps for our area.  Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 70s.  I expect next week's maxes to be closer to the low-mid 80s most of the days. We may touch 90ºF on Tuesday (I thought Monday last week) but that is difficult to do with so much water in the ground.   Here is the temperature forecast for next week as per the GFS:

And here is the accumulated precip as per the GFS.  You can clearly see as to how the front looks to stall just to our north and west placing us in the warm sector of the atmosphere but also allowing for ample opportunity for precip to occur.

In a touch of irony, the last map shows the soil moisture index across the states.  It's no surprise that PA is quite wet (and this doesn't take into account this past week!) but the ironic touch is Cajun country.  The area presently becoming inundated with Miss River flooding has been undergoing a drought this past late winter and spring.  It's very obvious how nature tries to balance out her imbalances.

If you have nothing else to do for the next 7 minutes of your life, here is a very timely tribute to those suffering in harms way from one of the most versatile bands of the ages.  I don't think Cajun Music falls into their genre, but there were a few ditties they performed that weren't too far off.  This, however, is most certainly a rockin' blues tribute for those at the mercy of the Mississippi's walls.

Enjoy the week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Gradually pulling into summer with an upcoming warm and wet week followed by a true taste of summer 1st week of June.