I will try to be brief. Really! The map below shows the GFS depiction of this upcoming weekend's upper air anomalies. This run was from Saturday morning. Note the area of "warm" colors over PA.
Now, 12 hours later, the GFS is hinting at a less than desirable solution as it begins to cut-off an upper air low over the lower Miss Valley. This would lead to cooler and wetter than normal conditions for the upcoming holiday weekend.
Meanwhile, the Euro (seen below) is indicating a deep trough over the eastern US with just simply ugly sensible weather implications for the weekend. The Euro had an even stronger trough in its previous run but nonetheless, a cut-off low from the main jet, which is scooting through southern O Canada, will make the weather here in PA ugly........AGAIN!
If the map below verifies, we are looking at a deep fetch of moisture from the tropical Atlantic which could lead to copious amounts of rainfall over the Memorial Day Weekend. The 1st part of the weekend looks OK at best as a cold front will pass through on/about Friday. Saturday could be the day to get the lawn mowed, garden weeded, state track & field events completed, etc. as by Sunday, the weather looks to quickly deteriorate. The 850 mb low looks to be centered just to our west leading to a favorable low level jet region to give us ample opportunity for rainfall!
The last map is a 500 mb look for the same period. It too shows the cut-off low over the Ohio Valley and portrays U-G-L-Y, you ain't got no alibi weather for us here in PA. If it is any consolation, the Pacific NW will also be experiencing UGLY weather with a deep trough off the coast. I was watching the SF Giants broadcast the other evening and the announcer stated that he can't remember a May that has been this wet and cold for them in SF! It's that global warming thing you know!
And this rain will fall on already saturated ground! Below is the soil moisture map:
Well don't shoot the messenger.....I'm just trying to give a possible "heads-up" to some potentially heavy rainfall and possible wet basements and flooding streams for the holiday weekend. On a lighter note, no triple crown winner again this year. But if you thought that Shackleford with his speed could be at the line first when the mile and 3/16 were completed and hold off all the closers, then you were smiling after Maryland my Maryland! Note how clean the boy looks in the photo below as he and Flashpoint lead every call including the most important one with his wire to wire finish!
Have a good work week!
Smitty
AA: Warm and summer-like with some T-storms early week, followed by cooler and damper as the week progress. Saturday could be nice for states. Could get quite ugly around here for next Sunday and Monday....and a few days beyond!
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