Sunny Saturday Followed by 90 on Monday?

It will be a cloudy dreary week of weather where rain can and will fall at any time through Friday.  The map below shows the NAM's interpretation of the amount of precip that looks to fall here by Thursday.  The heaviest of the rain will fall Tuesday and Tuesday evening followed by a chance of showers and even the occasional rumble of thunder at anytime through Friday.  The shift in the heaviest rain bands could have our area receive anywhere from about an inch of rain to about 4 inches of rain through the period.  Truth be told, I'm looking realistically about 2.00 inches of precip through Friday.

Once this blocking pattern finally breaks down, and this will not occur until Friday at the earliest, it appears as if drier air will sweep in from the north both at the surface and aloft creating a mostly sunny day Saturday and most certainly a LAWN MOWING WARNING will issued at this time for Saturday!  The map below shows the 700 mb level where the darker pinkish colors indicate dry air at 10,000 feet and ultimately sunny skies once the morning fog evaporates.  After all, once the fog evaporates, it won't be missed!

On Sunday, a stray shower or t-storm may surface as a surface warm front invades from the SW.  This will allow a boundary of instability to develop and the possibility of a shower or two as the warm air advects into PA.  This leads the to the possibility of a very warm Monday where the temps in the lower Susquehanna Valley will easily reach the mid 80s and possibly flirt with the 90 degree mark.  The 2 maps below show the surface map with the warm front near PA and the surface temperature anomalies for next Monday!





The map above is the ensembles of the GFS's 15 different runs. There are many of the ensembles that show a more extreme solution of 15-20 degrees above normal. I'm not convinced that we will hit 90F, but the pattern is certainly suggesting a very warm day on Monday. It is very difficult to hit extreme high temps with so much water in the ground, but I am saying temps will approach our 1st 90F reading of the warm season.

As many of you know, the Space Shuttle Endeavour launched today from 39A at Cape Canaveral.  On its final flight, the space shuttle Endeavour is carrying equipment for one of the most important experiments yet to be undertaken by the International Space Station's crew: a massive $2 Billion apparatus that will search for cosmic rays and high-energy particles from deep space. The data from this experiment could help reveal the origin of the universe, lend more evidence to support the Big Bang, and help explain the incredibly elusive Dark Matter!

Enjoy your election day!

Smitty

AA:  A dreary, rain filled week, followed by a nice Saturday, and then possibly our first 90 degree day on Monday.  At the very least, we should hit the mid-80s on Monday.