Firecracker Hot for Memorial Day

Just a brief post to confirm my suspicions for a very hot Memorial Day 2011 as the modeling is suggesting at least a 15+ temp for a max on Monday.  Normal highs for Monday are ~77F and 15+ would get us to the low 90s at least.  Rain will also be out of the equation as we will have a strengthening high pressure at all levels of the atmosphere keeping a lid on any instability and subsequent convection that may even think about developing.  The map below indicates such an anomalous max temp for Monday.

But once the feel of summer makes it presences felt, the jet will allow for much cooler air to advect SE into the mid-Atlantic from our neighbors to the north.  When the air masses change next Wednesday afternoon, we are looking at the potential for some energetic storms to quickly move through our area.  But this is good news as we are then looking at the likelihood for some beautiful wx for the end of next week.  How does sunny and 75F sound?  In fact, I'm so tired of all of these nasty wx warnings, I'm going to issue a BEAUTIFUL WX WATCH for next Friday and Saturday.....of course this is only a watch.  But once we move into the shorter range, it is likely that this watch will be upgraded to a warning early next week!  The map below shows both the European and the GFS in agreement for a nice NW flow ushering in seasonable temps for early June. 

The max temp map for the 2nd week in June indicates near normal temps or even slightly below normal for our 1st week's end in June!  This suggests that baseball fans should have good wx to take in a PA baseball extravaganza of the Phillies clashing with the Pirates at PNC Park. In fact the map below lacks much heat at all for this time frame.

As I sit here and pound away at the keys as only my Econ colleague can so eloquently paint a graphic image of, I would be remiss in not mentioning thunderstorms and severe weather.  I am experiencing very heavy rainfall with vivid lightning and gusty winds at this time....so what else is new....right?  In fact, the light show out my picture window is much more entertaining than the Phillies ugly win over the Mets!  My other compadre suggested that this has been some of the worst weather that he can remember, and he is a geezer as he utilized Hurricane Hazel (1954) as his comparison!  Well, the graphic below shows that 2011 has been very active in terms of damaging wind reports.  In fact, we have essentially doubled our wind reports in the US to this point in the season compared to our 5 year mean of 2005-2010!  Astounding!

Thursday's storms were violet, but no confirmed tornadoes have been documented in PA to this point.  The graphic below does indicate how widespread the severe wx was for Thursday and how south central PA was most certainly in the cross hairs.

Many of my attendees today shared stories concerning their experience of the nasty weather they endured Thursday night.  The unifying factor shared by all was the fact that many were "scared" from the storm, and rightly so.  The darkness that overtook Etters at 6:30 pm had me thinking ONLY BRIEFLY that maybe Camping was just a few days early!  With the increased media presence espousing the awesome power of nature, many people, young and old alike, are becoming more aware of the incredible forces of nature.  Are these recent storms out of the ordinary in terms of the frequency and intensity?  To some extent yes, (last 100 years) but human records are but a blip on the timeline of how the wx has played out here on earth.  In fact, I often find myself wondering what the Little Ice Age would have to offer or what the day to day wx would have been like walking with Tyrannosaurus Rex!  I will share this snapshot taken by a student of the mammatus clouds he observed just after the storm became intense in the Harrisburg area.  Awesome photograph!  This could be used in a textbook describing these clouds.  These clouds remind me (in name only) of days gone by of a brief encounter following a canoe trip on the DE River in NE PA! 

I hope everyone enjoys their Memorial Day week's end and for those of you wishing for the heat, it's coming in spades!

Smitty

AA:  After some unsettled wx through Saturday, and possibly Sunday, it will be getting very hot for Mon-Wed then turning beautiful for the end of next week.  Beautiful Weather Watch for next Friday-Saturday!