Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Just a very quick update of the myriad of modeling now available for one with an insatiable appetite for this sort of thing...so much data; so little time! First, here is the latest out of the NHC. Many of you are familiar with these locations along the Outer Banks and the Delmarva...
And a topside IR view of our soon to be first hurricane of 2014...moving N at 8 mph; sustained winds at 70 mph; 365 miles SW of Cape Hatteras (HSE); 31ºN, 79ºW; 988 mb...a strengthening menace to be sure!
Closest buoy obs...first the locator map...it is the largest yellow polygon...waves were measured at 12'...
And the wind & pressure plot...note how the pressure is falling precipitously as the winds are rapidly becoming gustier and stronger...Buoy 41004 for those of you so inclined to follow over the next several hours...
Now the multi-million $$ question is will this storm come inside the OBX or remain offshore??? Most of the models paint an ugly land falling scenario and much heartache for those with OBX interests. Hurricane forced winds appear very likely for a several hour period along the OBX. Just how much surf will accompany these powerful winds; again determined by the EXACT center of this storm! So here is the modeling...
Offshore GFDL...
Land falling HWRF...
Land falling NAM...
Land falling O Canadian regional model...affectionately named Reggie...
Land falling GFS...since this is a global model, the scale will be much smaller in scope...
Just offshore Euro...
The 500 mb winds will keep this well away from the Jersey shore; however, winds and rains will certainly be experienced Friday along most of the Atlantic seaboard from VA Beach points north and east...
The official forecast from the phenomenally talented scientists at the National Hurricane Center looks like this...
To continue to follow and monitor the storm at your own desire, here is the link for the NHC directly for the Arthur updates. The updated NOAA sites are at first a bit confusing but once you get the hang of navigating about, they are second to none! Again, so much data...so little time!
I sincerely hope everyone enjoys their July 4 celebrations and this storm along the east coast doesn't wreak havoc with plans or property or worse yet...life! Heavy surf WILL BE A MAJOR concern at all east coast beaches this weekend...so just be aware...and be safe!
Smitty
AA: Monitoring the east coast tropical storm and hurricane Arthur. Central PA spared from most effects. Just some gusty NW winds Friday into Saturday and high clouds off to the east...my 2 would never let us dress them like that above!
Just yesterday morning upon awakening, my wife stated to me something that essentially amounted to "well it's July 1...summer is half over!". Frankly, she is almost correct meteorologically. With the 3 warmest months being June, July, and August in these parts, summer is a third over. So let's see how summer is doing in terms of temps to this point and what is forecasted for the upcoming month of July, the warmest of the summer months. The temperature anomaly map below shows what this past June served the US...a slight bias to the upside in PA. By the way, KMDT's June temperature anomaly calculated out to +1.4ºF with only 2 days surpassing 90ºF. Our precip for June was slightly above the 30 yr average with 0.18" to the upside.
With that said, the month ahead looks to be slightly cooler than norms over the eastern Rockies, plains, & Great Lakes...moderating towards the Atlantic if you believe the CFSv2. Thus, the heart of the continent appears to be heading for a rather pleasant summertime.
In these warm days, just remember it was a few short months back that most of the continent endured very cold winter...here's the graphic for a vivid reminder!
In terms of the sensible weather in the much nearer term, the 5 day temps centered over the upcoming July 4 weekend look like this...maybe a bit cool for some heat loving folks in these parts...
And the current heat and humidity will be a thing of the past once a strong cold front sweeps off the east coast by Thursday. As it approaches PA later today, numerous showers and storms will fire in the hot and humid air mass. Thus the Storms Prediction Center (SPC) has placed essentially the entire NE under the "Slight" risk category of having a severe thunderstorm...
...while one of their newest forecast products indicates a rather high probability of experiencing at least a strong thunderstorm as shown in the graphic below.
Finally, I would be remiss if I did not address the first tropical system of 2014, Arthur. Currently, here is a top view of this tropical storm with 60 kt sustained winds as of 2 am EDT. The Bahamas appear to be getting raked with huge thunderstorms at this time!
The current modeling is in remarkably good agreement as you can see as well...
Big surf along the east coast; the bulk of the heaviest precip will stay well east of PA. That's not to say that some of the tropical moisture will not get involved with some potential leftover Thursday storms. Here is the HPC forecasted precip over the next few days; the bulk of ours will come later Wednesday into the overnight into early Thursday morning with another round of convection later Thursday pm...
The "purples" from VA to ME in the graphic above are primarily from the storms that will fire Wed & Thursday. Clearly, the rain swath offshore is associated with Arthur. But as the close-ups from the modeling show, the effects of Arthur will not be too far from our region...1st, when the storm will have its greatest impact over the Outer Banks of NC and HSE...
Then 6 hours later as it translates towards the NE and begins to accelerate away from the continent...nature will supply her own fireworks for Delmarva & Jersey shore beach goers this July 4!
Alright, gonna run...literally. So I'll leave y'all with one of my favorite tunes which really assists me in cranking out a good workout whether throwing around some weights or pumping the gauge on the cardio equipment...nothing to do with weather; just some good old KA Rock & Roll! I hope you enjoy...
Enjoy your 4th...and for beach goers, pay attention to the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) advisories and updates! Be aware and be safe in the surf!
Smitty
AA: Storms Wed and Thursday will break this heat/humidity. Weekend looks spectacular again! Again, typical summertime wx with recurrent short bouts of heat/humidity followed by periods of cool/dry relief for the next couple of weeks. Keep apprised of soon to be Hurricane Arthur off the SE coast of the US. Enjoy your 4th of July my friend; can the O's go into Bean-town and take 2 of 3 from the Bosox?
No, not the 1981 film starring Dudley Moore (made famous from Bo Derek's classic; "10") but the potentially soon to be named tropical storm here in the western Atlantic basin...and just in time for the July 4 weekend where numerous vacationers will be enjoying the east coast beaches!
Here is what soon-to-be named Arthur looks like at this time as seen through the eyes of a weather satellite hovering at about 22,200 miles above the earth and using software to create this enhanced infrared view of the present cloud structure and organization just off the SC coast. I believe with a little imagination, you can clearly see the beginning stages of closed rotation and the deep convection starting to align in a favorable position.
The usually conservative National Hurricane Center (NHC) even has a moderate outlook for this area of disturbed weather to become a named system...
Here is the latest view of what many of the tropical models are doing with the development and subsequent track of this soon-to-be named storm...
The good news about all of this is that this warm core storm looks to want to follow its primary energy feed; that being the infamous Gulf Stream. Here is a year long animation of the Gulf Stream. Note the colder ocean water creeping down along the NE US coast while the warmer ocean water is driven to the north and east and gets kicked oceanward thanks to the Carolina coastline as well as the by the denser, colder Labrador current origin water! Pretty cool...don't cha think?
The Euro which had an ugly scenario for us here in PA for next weekend just 12 hours ago...
...now has the storm driven much further away from the coast implying a dry weekend in these parts. Big surf will be a likely cause for concern for those officials along the east coast beaches who need to have a balance between being overly cautious and yet promoting their so called economic "bread & butter"!
The above map has a stronger storm; however, it is clearly much further from the mainland. The one part of the forecast over the next week looks to be the fact that Monday-Wednesday will become quite uncomfortable as the upper air pattern promotes surface temps around 90ºF with moderate to high humidity. Here is the Euro's warm 850 mb temps for Wednesday pm...
...but by Saturday morning, some rather chilly air for this time of year will be moving into the northeast. Take a glance at these 850s! What's pretty neat is the model is detecting the tropical system about 150 miles east of Hatteras! Fluids!
But before we get to enjoy next weekend's potentially stellar weather for here in PA, we must endure what the GFS has for us for early this upcoming business portion of the week! The all too often HHH will invade these parts...Wednesday appears to me to be the peak of the uncomfortable wx.
So...soon-to-be Arthur looks likely to commence our tropical season here in the western Atlantic basin. Thus, I'll leave y'all with what was in my opinion the most recognized song from the 1981 film crooned by Chris Cross.
Enjoy your Sunday...and for all of you World Cuppers, enjoy the next 6 games in the knockout round of 16. Looking forward to a US victory in their match with Belgium on Tuesday!
Smitty
AA: Another nice day here today, but heat and humidity return until a cold front will sweep through later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Then another spectacular weekend for the 4th! Looks like our 1st tropical storm/hurricane will develop off the east coast by Wednesday as well and move harmlessly out to sea!
Just a little different post to make sure y'all stay somewhat informed as to what is ACTUALLY occurring in terms of global ice melt, especially in the polar regions of our planet. In spite of the present political climate concerning "green energy" and the like, I simply want y'all to see graphically what is occurring with the earth's sea ice; nothing more, nothing less. You see, the earth's heat balance is simply a "zero sum" game meaning that while there will be areas of heat and areas of cold, the final result over a certain period of time will balance out to, well, zero net. It's actually quite involved, but to keep it simple, energy in = energy out. Sometimes we here in the middle latitudes find ourselves between a lower energy air mass to our north and west while one with greater energy, often to our south and loaded with water vapor want to collide and we caught in between experience all heck breaking loose. This is nature's way of balancing that energy...as is the polar ice ebbing and flowing over the decades! Remember when this politician seen below made preposterous claims that the North Pole would be 'ice-free" by 2013! Gore cited "man-made global warming" would create such warming of the planet that polar ice would reduce to zero in the melt season at our north pole! Many other media outlets touted this claim as well!
Well Al, I have some inconvenient graphics to show you! First, the current arctic sea ice level as compared to the last 10 years...nearly the greatest amount of ice in a decade at this time of the year! As you can see, 2014 is the BLACK LINE and although melting at a quicker rate than recent weeks, still near the highest levels in the last decade!
Here is the total northern hemispheric ice...basically Greenland included...oh yeah, still quite healthy in terms of areal coverage!
When comparing the northern hemispheric sea ice to the satellite era averages, well, yes, we are below the "norms", but not quite to ZERO! And the trend over the last decade is clearly obvious, but now tends to be leveling off.
And the last time I checked, Antarctica was part of this globe! Well, look at how global warming has affected our southern hemispheric counterparts! 1.8 million square km above the satellite era "norms"! Wow!
And using a similar graphic as the one for the arctic, note how the ice has increased greatly around Antarctica in the recent years! As the oceans slosh back and forth, their heat content distributed about the globe, melting and re-freeze are a direct consequence! Zero sum game...
Speaking of games, gotta love those Os as they took another series from an American league foe, gained another game on the 1st place Blue Jays and looking forward to some very winnable contests versus the Rays and the Rangers! Sorry I digress...nice HR walk-off Monday and a wild-pitch walk-off Wednesday! Let's Go Os!
OK...gonna run. Enjoy your slightly cooler and slightly drier air of Thursday through Sunday. Heat & humidity will return by early next week, but nothing extreme...here you can see the drier air bleeding south from New England & O Canada by this weekend.
And here's hoping the US Soccer team advances into the next round...
Smitty
AA: Global warming has helped keep the grass-cutters in business! More rain + more heat = more profit! Os are 6 games over the Sox; 1.5 behind the Jays!
Really, not much to say here other than we are settling into a pattern of typical summertime wx. Humidity will fluctuate from quite steamy at times to brief periods of dry relief. The bulk of the time, dew points will remain in the 62°-68°F range for the next week. Temps will fall within a few degrees of climatological averages as well over the next week or so. Frankly, this is just what most people picture as summertime wx. Today, most of PA is in an excessive rainfall forecast zone...(afternoon thunderstorms accompanying a cool/dry frontal passage...)
But over the next week, the only precip that will fall is from any thunderstorm that can develop from the borderline unstable air that gets created from the heating of the day. Here is the total precip as progged by the Euro for the next week. I believe a slightly drier time is on the way for the next week as the "storm track" is displaced further north across southern O Canada. Keep in mind on the graphic below that most of the rain shown in the northeast is what is likely to fall today and tonight...there are hints at some tropical influence along the west coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
So why the moosha-moosha wx? A rather large upper level sub-tropical high pressure will keep the SE quadrant of the US under a relatively benign regime of wx. Both the Euro and the GFS are in good agreement with all of this...here is the 500 mb level from the GFS for Saturday afternoon...
And the Euro for the same time. Very good agreement! The upper low off the New England coast will try to help keep some drier air in place across New England and down the coast into eastern PA. Again note the poleward bulge of the isobars (RIDGE) over the eastern third of the USA...
In the above 500 mb progs, also note the cool pool out to the northwest of PA over the northern plains. Both the Euro and the GFS bring this ESE and shear it out so that a zonal (west to east) flow with an ever so slight WNW bias will dominate the flow into next week. This is a relatively warm to potentially hot flow dependant on the upstream surface temps. However, with all of the rain that has fallen in the northern plain, extremely hot wx will be hard to come by. So I'm looking at a typical summertime pattern of mid 80s by day; mid 60s by the early am. Look at this rainfall over the plains from the last 30 days, most of which fell within the last week with all of the severe wx over the central and northern plains! Heat is difficult to develop over wet ground...and look for some good agricultural yields as this pattern looks likely to continue...
Both the Euro and the GFS wash out the cool pool towards PA...1st the Euro...
And now the GFS...
Again, fairly remarkable agreement for a week out...note the tropical development in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of Mexico...but as long as cool pools continue to advect SE from central O Canada, any real heat will have trouble to hit and stick for any length of time...look at the deviation from norms of this cool pool over the northern plains. This will certainly beat back any attempt of a major heat wave...but this is a nice healthy sub tropical high over the SE US...(valid this weekend)...
So typical summer weather; lets root for a not so typical World Cup outcome Thursday! Everyone says the US will be no match for Germany and that might be the case...but like they say in the sporting biz..."that's why you play the game"...or match...sorry; this world football thing is new to this soccer novice! But I'll be cheering on the Red White and Blue and hopefully they will advance into the knockout round with a competitive game against the Germans...& a little help from Portugal...?
Enjoy your mid-week...and your typical summer wx...
Smitty
AA: Some thunderstorms Wed. afternoon and night. Then some "normal" summer weather for the next week. Time to catch up on the mowing!
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