Authur?

No, not the 1981 film starring Dudley Moore (made famous from Bo Derek's classic; "10") but the potentially soon to be named tropical storm here in the western Atlantic basin...and just in time for the July 4 weekend where numerous vacationers will be enjoying the east coast beaches!

Here is what soon-to-be named Arthur looks like at this time as seen through the eyes of a weather satellite hovering at about 22,200 miles above the earth and using software to create this enhanced infrared view of the present cloud structure and organization just off the SC coast.  I believe with a little imagination, you can clearly see the beginning stages of closed rotation and the deep convection starting to align in a favorable position.

The usually conservative National Hurricane Center (NHC) even has a moderate outlook for this area of disturbed weather to become a named system...

Here is the latest view of what many of the tropical models are doing with the development and subsequent track of this soon-to-be named storm...

The good news about all of this is that this warm core storm looks to want to follow its primary energy feed; that being the infamous Gulf Stream.  Here is a year long animation of the Gulf Stream.  Note the colder ocean water creeping down along the NE US coast while the warmer ocean water is driven to the north and east and gets kicked oceanward thanks to the Carolina coastline as well as the by the denser, colder Labrador current origin water!  Pretty cool...don't cha think?

The Euro which had an ugly scenario for us here in PA for next weekend just 12 hours ago...

...now has the storm driven much further away from the coast implying a dry weekend in these parts.  Big surf will be a likely cause for concern for those officials along the east coast beaches who need to have a balance between being overly cautious and yet promoting their so called economic "bread & butter"!

The above map has a stronger storm; however, it is clearly much further from the mainland.  The one part of the forecast over the next week looks to be the fact that Monday-Wednesday will become quite uncomfortable as the upper air pattern promotes surface temps around 90ºF with moderate to high humidity.  Here is the Euro's warm 850 mb temps for Wednesday pm...

...but by Saturday morning, some rather chilly air for this time of year will be moving into the northeast.  Take a glance at these 850s!  What's pretty neat is the model is detecting the tropical system about 150 miles east of Hatteras!  Fluids!

But before we get to enjoy next weekend's potentially stellar weather for here in PA, we must endure what the GFS has for us for early this upcoming business portion of the week!  The all too often HHH will invade these parts...Wednesday appears to me to be the peak of the uncomfortable wx.

So...soon-to-be Arthur looks likely to commence our tropical season here in the western Atlantic basin.  Thus, I'll leave y'all with what was in my opinion the most recognized song from the 1981 film crooned by Chris Cross.

Enjoy your Sunday...and for all of you World Cuppers, enjoy the next 6 games in the knockout round of 16.  Looking forward to a US victory in their match with Belgium on Tuesday!

Smitty

AA:  Another nice day here today, but heat and humidity return until a cold front will sweep through later Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Then another spectacular weekend for the 4th!  Looks like our 1st tropical storm/hurricane will develop off the east coast by Wednesday as well and move harmlessly out to sea!