Wx Not Fit For Golf (or Baseball Either)

After emptying my 1.04" of liquid sunshine from my rain gauge this afternoon (with a bit more heading my way), I decided to really peruse the modeling for this upcoming "no alibi" weekend
(U-G-L-Y).  Thanks to a very anomalous trough digging into the eastern US, cold arctic air will slide directly into the east all the way deep into the south on strong NNW winds.  Here are the progged morning lows for the 3rd Round at Augusta National...

The final round has a real chance to have morning lows sub-freezing...

This is an incredible trough for this time of year...sub 528dm heights here in south central PA!

The Euro suggests some frozen precip in these parts early Saturday...

The GFS even more bullish on the white stuff...

Either way, cold blustery wx will accompany the showery precip on Saturday.  And after what has been a rather dry March, much more precip looks to be coming our way in the next 10 days; here is the Euro's take...

And our GFS...

Basically, the Euro is a tad further south with the storm track than the GFS; however, both are quite wet for eastern PA in the next week to 10 days.  And cold!  Next 5 days as per the GFS...

Couple that with the last 5 days (removing April 1, last Friday which hit 80°F), this will be one of the coldest starts to April that I remember!

OK...off to watch the Astros take care of the Yankees...I hope anyway.  So far; so good.  But just not baseball weather.  I know, be careful what you wish for as the heat and humidity will be coming on strong sooner rather than later!  So I'll leave you with a Jackson Browne tune that is appropriately titled "Before The Deluge".  "Now let the music keep your spirits high" (since this cold spring wx will not)...Enjoy!

And enjoy this week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Another cold and wet 5 days plus coming our way.  Enough said!

Wx Not Cooperating With Opening Week of Baseball

Or the Masters Golf Tournament for that matter!  Look at these lows progged for Saturday am...there will likely be frost around the course!

And it was cold today under crystal clear skies, single digit dew points and blindingly bright sunshine...but this is all temps managed at the warmest time of day!

Up across NY and southern New England where the recent snows have fallen, temps really struggled under this arctic air mass!  Note the newly fallen snow from this past weekend.  The Finger Lakes are quite obvious!  The bright sun was unable to remove much of this snow cover by this afternoon.  Remember that the sun is now at a similar position in the sky as it would be around Labor Day!

Here are the 3 pm temps; 27°F at the Broome County airport is quite cold even for Binghamton, NY! Brrrrr...

The way this looks to play out through this upcoming weekend is very similar to what we just experienced.  Thursday should bring another band of light to moderate rain in these parts announcing another shot of arctic air for the weekend.  Here is the surface map as per the Euro for Thursday...

This will allow a digging trough in the mid levels to strengthen in these parts; this looks brutal for Saturday pm...

And Sunday's lows will be very cold; 15-20°F below the 30 year norms!  Air will be coming straight outta Hudson Bay!

The CFSv2 looks to keep April cool through most of April, but the cold will certainly relax...it has to...right???  Here are temps averaged days 10-20 into the future; trust me this is the warmest of the next "10 day chunks" of time...

OK...off to continue to watch the Royals v the NYMets.  Thor looks tough; 5Ks, 0BB through 3!  It was also lovely to watch the Yankees looooose; the...the...the...Yankees LOSE!  I can't say it like John Sterling...

I'll leave y'all with this Billy Joel song from COLD SPRING Harbor; I believe many of you will remember this one!

Remember the heat and humidity is just around the corner; it's just be a brief set back until we see that corner thanks to this cold April to date!  Enjoy your mid-week...

Smitty

AA:  Another repeat of what just occurred; rain then cold.  Weekend might just be ugly with very cold air aloft. Hey the mid-April sun helps if it shines like it is today!  Another cold walk in the am...

Sensational Sunrise

Since I TOTALLY and COMPLETELY missed my last prognostication of a late winter/early spring snowfall, I am treading lightly going forward...NOT!  The only satisfaction from the last blown forecast is a push with Mr. RSC...KMDT is still hanging tough with 37.9" snowfall for the year!  I'd rather win or lose; not kiss my sister...no offense Nanc!  We will still get together for a few quaffs and laughs Mr RSC!  Who knows, there have been a few surprises in April in these parts, but I only see cold, not cold and stormy...?

But as for the title of this post, for those of you who venture out for Easter Sunday sunrise services...(1 minute prior to 7:00 am at KMDT this Easter Sunday am), skies should be clear, winds calm, a waning gibbous setting towards the WSW, and temps in the mid 30s.  A dome of high pressure will be asserting its force over our region this glorious early spring weekend!  Take a look...as per the Euro...

Sunrise mins will be in the lower 30s; here's the Euro's take on mins Sunday am...the global models tend to keep local minimums slightly warmer than what is observed...dress warmly in other words...ice likely on the bird baths...(I think you get the picture).

After Easter Sunday, a glorious day regardless of the wx, temps will be close to normal until they tank for a couple of days the first few days of April.  The Euro has a deep trough and all of the teleconnections support this cold shot...but as it has been all winter, it will be short lived!  That is ONE DEEP TROUGH coming through on April Fool's Day, but should lift out by the early part of the following week...

Many of you will like to see what the Climate Forecast System (v2) has for the month of April.  Here is a culmination of the last 10 days' runs of the model in terms of temps for the CONUS...that is in spite a few quite cold days to start the month in these parts...

OK...off to paint Easter eggs...not!  Actually, I like the chocolate that gets tossed about on Easter.  For those of you who actually care, no less than 85% cacao for me; the darker the better.  I've over the years acquired a taste for 100% raw cacao beans and cacao nibs.  Very dark chocolate with some type of nut butter (I prefer almond or cashew or even sunflower; Kay loves peanut butter!) or a few nibs with the whole raw nuts works as well...but this cartoon always gets me this time of year.

OK...gotta go.  I will leave you with this ditty...one of my favorites for this Holy Week.  By the way, I watched The Passion of the Christ earlier this week on Netflix; that is one brutal film.  Viewer Discretion advised...

Enjoy your Easter weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Typical early spring weekend other than it is Easter!  The 1st Sunday (the 27th) after the first full moon (the 23rd, tonight) after the Vernal Equinox (the 20th at 12:30 am, last Sunday).  You have The First Council of Nicaea AD 325 as well as Pope Gregory the XIII to thank for all of that...

LBC or ABC Mr RSC?

The title is in reference to an annual friendly wager (which by the way I lose EVERY year) concerning the yearlong snowfall total at KMDT.  Well, I thought I was styling as December played out as I gave 35" as the over/under and my compadre choose the over...(I believe I told him El Nino winters are generally wet; just trying to attain some semblance of forecasting).  Nada snow through the middle of January and I was feeling pretty good!  Then...BAM...BLIZZARD of historical proportions.  A year's worth of snow in one storm...unreal!  In case your memory is REAL SHORT...a Category 4; Crippling Event! (all of the font enhancements for you Yokes!)

Personally, I believe we have "on tap" yet another snowstorm within a few days of St. Paddy's celebrations.  I was with my siblings the other evening discussing the major snowfall in 1956 when my parents returned home from the week long stay in the hospital from the 2nd week of March birth of my elder twin bros!  The stories were humorous; but I mentioned that 1956 was an analog year in terms of an El Nino year.  Two years later; repeat!  I believe there was also a major snowfall in 1967 which also was an El Nino year where it was crashing to a cooler Pacific.  I would have to digress and research this, but I want to disseminate this info for my loyal minions so I can catch a few buckets this evening of this year's March Madness...By the way, here is the 1956 event; notable only Yokes...

If the Euro control run of the ensembles verifies, this will notable and then some!

If the Canuck verifies, this would be nasty...I believe this is just a tad too far west!  I honestly believe I-81 to I-78 to southern New England will bear the brunt of this later winter/early spring storm.

And for a touch of true irony, the Vernal Equinox will occur Sunday at 12:30 am EDT when the vertical rays of the sun will strike earth's equator and continue northward!  But come Monday morning at 12:30 am EDT, it sure won't look too spring-like outside; no way, no how... not at least if you believe the top 15 analogs from the 72 hour run of the GFS.  Here is the mean snowfall accums from the top 15 analogs...

So RSC, ABC or LBC or FeHillBC?  I'm kinda fond of 'em all!  I'm sure you're real surprised...Al's or Fed Tap works too.  And I did just mention irony (as I did last time too), so I will leave y'all with this Alanis Morissette 1995 ditty.  I don't think she mentioned ..."It's like a foot of snow on the first day spring..."  Enjoy!

And enjoy this first day of spring, March Madness, PIAA State BB Championships weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Good day for a fantasy baseball draft; snowy outside, baseball fever inside!

"Nothing Is Over 'Till We Decide It Is!"

One of my favorite scenes from one of my favorite movies...

And it is now becoming increasingly more likely that this unique winter of 2015-16 will not go quietly!  Earlier in the week, I shared with my daily encounterees that ALL of the global models had some type of winter mischief up their numerical sleeve!  Then, as usual this past winter, the models were all over the place.  Well, it is now looking more and more likely, at least to me, that what would be a major winter event for January will affect our region Palm Sunday into Monday...please let me explain...1st, as some of you know, I like to use analogs and the #1 analog using the GFS for this upcoming weekend delivered this in terms of snowfall!

Here is the upper air and surface low low-cation (top left) for those of you who like this sort of stuff...

And although the models lost this storm the last 36 hours, it's a comin' back.  First, take a look at the Euro from overnight (in terms of snowfall)...

And the Euro from this afternoon...

And the GFS from earlier today...

And the latest GFS run...and this will continue to shift further west IMHO...

And just humor me with yet another comparison.  The NAM was best with the blizzard earlier this year; many in the field "knock" the NAM until it's with 12-18 hours of an event.  Well, I believe the NAM is pretty good with large scale atmospheric synoptics even at its 84 hour end. Compare the low location between the GFS and the NAM at 84 hours...1st the GFS...note the storm forming off the GA-SC coast...

Now look where the NAM has the low...western GA/eastern Sweet Home Alabama...

And I've had many tell me that it's too warm for snow to accumulate; well not when temps are in the upper 20s and low 30s and AT NIGHT when the snow is likely to be the heaviest...look at the 850 mb temp anomaly for early next week (the graphic below is once the core of cold is lifting out NE)...You'll know it's plenty cold come Friday/Saturday as a direct discharge of arctic air will come straight down from O' Canada, more specifically, from frozen Hudson Bay!

But, not all bad; note the warm-up over the plains heading east; however, the warmth will be blunted by the wet/white ground for a bit once again (ie. a "Pennsylvania Spring").  Hey don't shoot the messenger; just trying to keep those who want to be informed just that.  So I'll check out with this 1989 song released on one of my favorite albums...Don Henley's "The End of the Innocence".  This is what the winter MIGHT be screaming on the Vernal Equinox in these parts...and Isn't it Ironic...I could play that one too, but I'll stick with my 1st thought!  Enjoy!

And enjoy your Thursday...dangerously close to the end of the work week!

Smitty

AA:  Monitoring what might be a memorable end to a very unique winter; warmest December, heaviest snowfall in January, top 5 wettest D-F periods...and now this.  It will give you time to prep the mowers for what will be a warm April once we get past the 1st week!  Won't be freezing my butt off watching the Os in April!  Nor will BoSox fans in Beantown!

I Have a Theory

Humor me for just a few paragraphs...and for those of you who want to know just about the sensible weather...just skip down to the AA at the end of this post...but I have a theory, and I would truly like your thoughts in return.  I think the numerical modeling of the atmosphere has become too good!  What I mean is that every little minutia of detail is now incorporated and thus leads to wilds swings in the outcome of the initialization of the input of the atmospheric data.  Personally, I'm a pattern recognition guy...and what happened before will likely happen again.  I'll not bore y'all with the maps, but ALL of the global models have gone from 12"+ snows to 2"+ rains and just a bit in between for the unsettled weather that WILL manifest itself next week.  As for the computer modelers...I have the utmost respect for what they do; essentially build the atmosphere at multiple levels into a binary yes/no equation.  Trust me...I have no desire to venture into that realm coming from a guy whose last comp sci class at PSU involved IBM punch cards and you better be damned sure they were in the correct order...enough said.  Okay...so what's the weather Smitty?

Darn Nice Saturday!  You best enjoy it!  The graphic below supports my position that modeling is detailing too much...note the lower temps along the colder Susq River... pretty darn good for a global model!  But, Sat will be the nicest,  I believe of the next 10!

And here is why I say that...a constant trough into the eastern part of the US for the next several days/weeks...You have a trough that deep with a ridge that maxed in BC...watch out below...just plain wintry ugliness; rain, sleet, freezing rain, snow...you get the pic...UGLY you ain't got no alibi...the 500 mb pattern is UGLY!

I will not show snow maps...but I will show precip maps.  Keep in mind that some will be dendrites, some ice pellets, some liquid sunshine...personally, I like it all!  But Wednesday am will be UGLY across all of PA...and this system is juicy...Again, note the incredible resolution of the enhanced precip over the warmer Bay near Baltimore...can't wait for Os baseball...Let's Go O's!

Once I have a more definitive answer for y'all, I will issue something forthwith.  I do truly appreciate all of your personal comments and am humbled by the fact that you value my opine about this inconceivable system that we try to analyze called the atmosphere and the wx!  Honestly...I liked IBM punch cards.  Times were simpler.  My wife even states so many times that she was born late...I could see us hanging out with the Ingalls near that little house on the prairie...

Time to run...actually sleep so I can "run" at the gym tomorrow.  Running for me consists of lifting fast (deadlifts and squats) and then cardio on the arc trainer...it's a good endorphin rush!

Enjoy your week's end!  Oh yeah...tunes...I've been on an Eagles kick of late and IV shared with me his "4" favs of the Eagles...so just "Four" him...another Eagles tune to sign off...one of my favs as well!

Enjoy the week's end...I know I will in spite of that pesky wave of cloudiness/spittyness later Sunday; trust me Saturday will be nice!

Smitty

AA:  Love Sat wx... because it simply gets ugly and uglier once again from that point forward into the medium and longer range!  March looks cold...sorry Z!

Uncertainty Abounds

As I sit here and evaluate the synoptics of next week, the general pattern is fairly easy to depict.  An upper air trough in the east; a ridge in the western portion of the continent...take a look...

The orangish colors over the west have led to a warmer and drier S California and the deserts of the SW.  In fact, Phoenix set a record for its earliest 90°F for the calendar year earlier this week.  Personally, I believe that the blue colors over Hudson Bay will "phase" more strongly with the low heights over the deep south and create a rather potent surface disturbance which will travel north and east up along the natural baroclinic zone of the coastal interface.  In fact, for those of you who are rooting on a snow storm, be concerned that a stronger phase will pull the surface storm further inland allowing for a wet event in these parts as marine air would invade the piedmont.  A lesser phase will allow for the coastal commute for the low pressure system and generate yet another major snowfall in these parts.  IT'S JUST TOO EARLY TO CALL!  In fact, the 51 runs of the Euro ensemble are quite confused...check it out...

As per the Euro, temperature is not an issue with this event for the precip type, nor is it with the even weaker GFS, which has been as convicted with a solution as an eligible bachelor is looking for his "flavor of the week"!  Sorry...I needed a metaphor for this flip-floppy GFS which is so often frustrating.  Take a look at the "warmest" 850 mb temps for the event next week...

There is plenty of time to scrutinize next week; let's enjoy the potential 60°F temps we may experience Saturday under sunny skies...here is the temp modeled for Saturday pm...the yellowish colors are 60°F+...

OK...gotta go...just trying to keep everyone updated on this endless siege of moisture from the deep tropics which is often encountering stubborn cold air both here at the surface and aloft.  Personally, I believe this pattern will last well into the middle of March.  Sorry, Z!  But as a tradeoff, once the pattern switches...spring will be coming on gangbusters with a warmer and drier than normal spring I do believe...we will see?!?!

I'll leave y'all with this...in memory of one of my favorite musicians (group) which has nothing to do with the weather other than we can all love a little CA weather from time to time.  (At the time of this LAX is reporting 64F with a 50F dew point and a wind off the Pacific at 12 mph...)  Enjoy!

Enjoy your Friday and even more so your week's end...

Smitty

AA:  Watching yet another winter storm potential next week after a mild/warm weekend.