No Major Storm...Just An Arctic Boundary

And that said boundary will serve as an atmospheric slope to make relatively warm and humid air overrun the front of much colder, denser, and drier air creating bouts of snow, icing, and even pockets of liquid rain when the precip is not very heavy.  The next 10 days after a relatively "warm" Thursday will be quite cold and damp in these parts with snow and ice accumulations continually piling up from time to time.  The Euro has even suggested that a sub zero day is possible later next week...but I'm not buying that...yet.  This implies the model has a relatively moderate snow and ice pack on the surface in these parts for such serious cold to manifest itself this early in the season.  But the cold is something to behold...look at these impressive 24 temp changes in the high plains!

...and the current apparent temps across the northern plains.  That cold will slowly ooze south and east towards us by Saturday.  It will be moderated to be sure from its present state, but the cold mass will advect towards us unrelentingly!  Here are the current "real-feel" temps...

Near 80 in north TX today.  Not so much tomorrow...the Big D will not know what hit them overnight!  The Big D is gonna experience the Big Chill and I'm not talking the 1983 flick!  I liked...FYI.

And that air will be working its way towards us as well...take a look...1st here is 7am Friday.

And then 7am Saturday...

Finally Sunday at 7am...

What the map above doesn't show, but the upper levels are quite cold as well.  Thus, when the air starts to push from the southern US later on Sunday, much frozen precip will break out all along the Ohio Valley and up into PA.  Just where the axis of heaviest precip sets up is a real question.  But the Euro has been rock solid in suggesting that ample frozen precip will fall in these parts by Monday pm and once again later in the week as more warm air tries to erode the arctic air that is in place.  Suffice to say, winter will be felt in these parts through next week...and of that I am fairly sure.

Take a look at this meteogram from the Euro for the next 10 days...enjoy the warmth of Thursday kids!  3+ days of below freezing temps later next week following a lot of frozen slop and gooply glop!  At the very least, many places across the US in the northern states will start getting into the Christmas feel by simply looking outside at nature's frosting...

One thing to me that certainly indicates that it is coming on Christmas is the short days we are now experiencing...sunset at 4:45 pm after a 7:15 sunrise in these parts...and with that low sun angle, it is very difficult to mix and erode any of these low hanging clouds that have obscured our sky.  Joni Mitchell sings about other observations she remembered indicating that Christmas was a few short weeks away...I hope you enjoy as much as I.

And as always, thanks for humoring me by reading my take on this wonderful natural world in which we are but such a small part!  Everyday, I become even more in awe at how this natural world operates!

Enjoy your end of the work week...and by the way, that OK-OK State game might be the new college "Ice Bowl"!  Temps in the low teens at early kickoff!  Snow on the sidelines and in the stands...could be fun!  Them Sooners and Cowboys won't know what hit them!

Gotta run...

Smitty

AA:  Mild Thursday, but then some serious cold will slowly bleed into these parts and then hang tough for the next week or so.  A few bouts of frozen precip to boot along with some liquid sunshine. Ellsbury a Yankee...how 'bout that?

Very Interesting!

For those of you my age and a tad bit older...you'll remember Artie Johnson's famous quotes...

...and I don't think he was studying the Euro snow output for the last several days over our neck of the woods!  The axis of heaviest snow is essentially aligned along the I-81 corridor!  How very convenient to show that this might be the heaviest snowfall for most of us experienced this early in the season!  It is only Thanksgiving after all!

One thing that seems to be nearing certainty is that this will most decidedly be a disruptive storm for many in the northeast quadrant of the US over what is oft proclaimed to be the busiest travel day of the year! Note where the GFS places its axis of heaviest snowfall...um...in the hill country of the south lands!  Veeeeeerrrrryyyy interesting......but Stoooopid! (I think)...?

Here's the O Canadian...if you care...it too keeps the axis south of PA...but I'm not so sure...and I'll let y'all know why!  One thing for sure, cold will be ample to support frozen precip if the storm decides to venture up the coast...

You see, with the ocean temps at their warmest of the cold season, this should pump the SE ridge making the storm push up along the coast and seek its natural baroclinicity between the ocean and the land. The oceans are warm and thus a poleward bulge is likely keeping this storm a "hugger" as opposed to a "fish storm"!  Note the anomalous warmth in the Gulf and along the east coast....

Hey...y'all know my bias and that is for winter being long and strong!  But whatever happens...happens.  I just think next week could remind people more of celebrating Christmas as opposed to Thanksgiving! But both are obviously worth celebrating, no matter the weather!  But having a memorable snowstorm on Thanksgiving is one of those "extreme" events that is undoubtedly caused by the disruption of the natural weather patterns by humans...ie...GLOBAL WARMING! Sorry I digress...Here is one of my more memorable Thanksgiving winter events...what a bonehead!

Leon...don't Lett the game get away!  Oh well!  How 'bout them Cowboys?   In terms of updates about this upcoming winter wx situation, I may not be able to opine as oft as I like as I will be playing around in "Cajun Country"...hopefully singing and dancing to something that might sound like this...

Although that version is a bit tame for my blood!  But I will say I was disappointed to some extent when I saw the operational temps come in at this for Sunday...man that is chilly for "Cajun Country"!  Oh well...it is what it is!

Enjoy your Friday everyone...and your potential Thanksgiving snow event!

Smitty

AA:  Here's hoping you and your young family have an awesome Thanksgiving holiday time and enjoy the season leading to Christmas.  As for the wx, I think it will be mid-winter cold with a good chance of plowable snow for Wed-Thursday!  Ye-haw!

Quite The Blow!

The storm that ripped through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes region is doing exactly what mid-latitude lows are supposed to do; thoroughly mix the atmosphere top to bottom or bottom to top and left to right or right to left...whichever your preference.  The earth is in this constant IMPOSSIBLE battle to balance its heat.  The transition seasons of autumn and spring are when the fight is often greatest.  Thus, severe wx outbreaks as observed yesterday in the Midwest are the sensible wx result of this imbalance...take a look...84 tornadoes reported November 17, 2013!

Now the gale center is located northeast of Lake Superior on the south shores of James Bay with pressures down to 968 mb!

And here is how the IR topside view appears...

Our crystal clear skies and dew points in the mid 20s are a result of air getting pulled into this system from the high plains and central Rockies! High pressure is progged to rule the roost the next several days as it ridges east over NY...

And after a storm system works its way from the southern plains NNE into the lower Lakes on Saturday...

...a very large and COLD arctic high will move across the lower 48 the 1st part of Thanksgiving week.  If the model verifies below, Sunday will be quite cold and blustery across PA with lake effect snows widespread across the lakes including the favorite parts of PA.

But then, later on nearer Turkey Day, storminess could be evident across much of the eastern USA disrupting travel either by plains, train, or automobile....here is the Euro's map for Thanksgiving morn...
that low pressure would've caused ample precip as it moved from the gulf coast to its progged position...and with the arctic high retreating, much of the precip has the likelihood of being in some type of frozen forms once to our latitude!

In fact, the Euro thinks turkey week will be quite cold in these parts...for a 5 day average, that is a cold map!

Alright...gotta run.  I'll try to update later this week...but if you are so inclines, between 5am-6am this week under what should be quite clear skies, you might want to try to spot Comet ISON low in the eastern sky?  This is a neat interactive...

http://www.solarsystemscope.com/ison/

You won't see this...

...but if you wait until ISON heads back out to outer reaches of the solar system, you might get a better naked eye glimpse...here is a good map over the 1st 2 weeks of December...

So give it a shot; albeit a cold shot I do believe....to try to spot the comet...

Smitty

AA:  Nice wx through end of week then another frontal passage for the later part of the weekend.  Quite cold early next week with the potential for wintry precip by Thanksgiving. When it's clear, look east early in the am to try to spot a comet.

If You Like Your Wx Pattern...

...You can keep your wx pattern, period!  Here is November as we completed half of the month in terms of temps...

Here is the CFSv2 forecast for the remainder of the month...

For us here in PA, the remainder of the month looks like 2nd verse, same as the 1st!  But there are some changes spinning around the roulette wheel of wx! Note how AK is now forecast to get cold and look at how that cold axis is focused towards the eastern lower 48.  Also note how Greenland is turning a bit warmer as before it was cold.  This is known in the biz as a "blocky" pattern, or one that will suppress and slow air masses across the lower latitudes of the contiguous states.  If all of this comes to fruition, then the first part of December looks to be quite cold...and possibly stormy!  The CFS seems to agree...here are the temp anomalies through the 1st 10 days of December...

Now if we can get any precip to attack these "Arctic Highs" that keep coming south and east, we are looking for the potential of a White Christmas.  I'm not rushing the season, but I've had several already ask about such potential...I'd just like to remind y'all that a "White" Christmas is not a frequent occurrence here in the sub-tropics of southern PA!  Take a look...we are roughly a 1 in 4 chance...

But the probability of yet another rotund arctic high paying us a visit is rather high as the WPC shows on its latest maps!

If this map verifies, then Wednesday morning will be quite chilly...no...COLD...in these parts! All indications are that this air mass will be ever so slightly "warmer" than the last; however, with a 1032 mb monster sitting right over PA for the pre-dawn hours would mean the possibility of near record cold by sunrise...just sayin'...The Euro says cold mid-week to be sure!  But it does keep the coldest portion of the air mass over O Canada...

Here are the temps for 1 mile up come later Tuesday evening...

This air will be ushered in compliments of that robust area of higher pressure as shown above.  The predicted rainfall later Sunday night into early Monday morning will mark the cold frontal passage announcing the arrival of the colder air once again...or in the GFS' words, If you like your current wx pattern, you can keep your current wx pattern, period!  The map below depicts 4 hours of radar ending daybreak Monday morning.  

So by Tuesday afternoon, the GFS suggests the surface map to look something like this...a large area of high pressure controlling the eastern part of the USA.  Note that it is really only slightly above normal in terms of its forecasted pressure; (~1.5 SD above norms)...

But a larger and stronger area of High Pressure will be coming for the following weekend, essentially assuring another colder than normal period!  Interesting feature is obvious in the map above (tropical system), but in the map below, a more subtle look to the map is showing low pressure developing in the western Gulf and must be monitored for "Fowl" wx for Turkey Week.  

OK...enough said for now.  But I will leave y'all with this...I was once again very much entertained by the sport of high school football last evening and often look back at a game and try to understand how or why?  The East High tailback carried the ball 30 times once again for 170 yds...but in all honesty, I didn't think he had that many carries!  East High won that game in all aspects last night except in 2 very important categories; special teams (that 70 yd punt by the Dallastown punter was a "game-changer" as was the PI call on the "fake punt fade" play to the DT gunner in my opinion) and the ultimate category...THE SCORE! Nonetheless, the Panthers had a fine season, playing well into November when the majority of teams completed their season's 2 weeks back.  It's just tough to lose a game with only 16 seconds remaining...congrats to both Cats, but most definitely East High.

So who will come out of District 3 AAAA?  An Eagle or a Wildcat, or a Falcon, or a Bulldog?  That's a prediction I'll let y'all make.  I'll stick with the cold wx for the remainder of November!

Enjoy your week's end...and as always...thanks for reading!

Smitty

AA:  It's been cold so far this November...and more of the same is coming!  My favorite time of the year for high school football...but it is just a little cold at times! 

Under Pressure

High atmospheric pressure that is!  Once the arctic front passed through this morning with a temperature drop that would make the Plains' states proud, high pressure will be building to the south and east over the next several days.  Take a look at the NWS WFC prog for tomorrow...

For this time of the year, that is one gnarly HIGH!  High pressure, that is where the air presses harder down towards the earth, is characterized by dry and cold air, thus making the air mass heavier and more dense.  And note the 24 hour temp change!

And it's no wonder the northern plains are rebounding as their max temps weren't so much....

It will take the remainder of this work week for the air mass to moderate back towards normal temps.  In fact, for those of you with weekend plans, the high pressure should hold out long enough and fend off any overrunning SW advection that might cause clouds and light precip by Monday?  The Euro seems to think that Sunday will be relatively mild and nice for this time of year.  Here is its prog for the 850 mb temps Sunday morn...

But...another arctic front is on the way!  Here is the Euro's depiction of one mile up for next Wednesday am!  Some of the ensemble members actually have a wave of low pressure on this boundary from deep in the heart of Texas and it marches precip along the boundary towards the Mid-Atlantic.  That solution is seen on all of the global modeling, but none of the actual operational models have anything to get excited about.

HPC plays it by the vest as they have another huge arctic high taking wx control; albeit earlier than the Euro.  We have assumed control...we have assumed control...

And by next Thursday, HIGH PRESSURE will once again rule the roost...at least the GFS thinks so...

OK...I made a reference to a song I heard this past summer that I still can't get out of my head!  It is a pretty awesome 5th inning mid-game song...maybe as good as The O's "Thank God I'm a Country Boy" in their 7th inning stretch.  But seeing east TX has only whetted my appetite to visit west TX now...I hope you enjoy this as much as I...and don't feel "pressured" to agree with my tastes!

Enjoy your mid-week...and your 10°-15°F below normal Wednesday...and that doesn't include the wind!

Smitty

AA:  High pressure to control our wx through the weekend.  Then another frontal passage for yet another arctic high for later next week!  By the way, not an American League guy as you know, but I had a blast at Texas Rangers game!

One Thing For Sure

And that is that the cold is coming! The graphic below shows the precip marking the arctic front as it advances to the south and east...

...and the cold that is advecting SE towards the eastern US!  Look at these apparent MID-AFTERNOON temps! Ouch!

And the GFS' take on a deviation from norms for Wed morning!  Very cold in the deep south compared to norms...just cold for everyone else in the east!

The Euro suggests the that the cold coming will be transient, and some moderation is coming by later this weekend into early next week before the bottom drops out once again!  The top left is Tuesday and moving left to right and down...the bottom right is next Wednesday...so next Monday and Tuesday look rather mild when comparing temps to the norms.

The CFS suggests that the remainder of  November to be cold on average....

So just a very quick cursory look at temps for the rest of November.  No big snows and a phasing split flow that the Euro showed us last week in 4 consecutive runs...oh well...the GFS got 'em that time!  But "King Euro" will take the GFS to school a few times more prior to this calendar year ending.

OK...enjoy your Monday Night Football...and doesn't that last regular season game look somewhat intriguing now between the Cowboys and The E-A-G-L-E-S...EAGLES!

Smitty

AA:  Pretty darn cold for time of year rest of the week.  Wednesday the coldest.  Then moderating (mildest next Monday and Tuesday) until another arctic blast middle to end of next week...