If You Like Your Wx Pattern...

...You can keep your wx pattern, period!  Here is November as we completed half of the month in terms of temps...

Here is the CFSv2 forecast for the remainder of the month...

For us here in PA, the remainder of the month looks like 2nd verse, same as the 1st!  But there are some changes spinning around the roulette wheel of wx! Note how AK is now forecast to get cold and look at how that cold axis is focused towards the eastern lower 48.  Also note how Greenland is turning a bit warmer as before it was cold.  This is known in the biz as a "blocky" pattern, or one that will suppress and slow air masses across the lower latitudes of the contiguous states.  If all of this comes to fruition, then the first part of December looks to be quite cold...and possibly stormy!  The CFS seems to agree...here are the temp anomalies through the 1st 10 days of December...

Now if we can get any precip to attack these "Arctic Highs" that keep coming south and east, we are looking for the potential of a White Christmas.  I'm not rushing the season, but I've had several already ask about such potential...I'd just like to remind y'all that a "White" Christmas is not a frequent occurrence here in the sub-tropics of southern PA!  Take a look...we are roughly a 1 in 4 chance...

But the probability of yet another rotund arctic high paying us a visit is rather high as the WPC shows on its latest maps!

If this map verifies, then Wednesday morning will be quite chilly...no...COLD...in these parts! All indications are that this air mass will be ever so slightly "warmer" than the last; however, with a 1032 mb monster sitting right over PA for the pre-dawn hours would mean the possibility of near record cold by sunrise...just sayin'...The Euro says cold mid-week to be sure!  But it does keep the coldest portion of the air mass over O Canada...

Here are the temps for 1 mile up come later Tuesday evening...

This air will be ushered in compliments of that robust area of higher pressure as shown above.  The predicted rainfall later Sunday night into early Monday morning will mark the cold frontal passage announcing the arrival of the colder air once again...or in the GFS' words, If you like your current wx pattern, you can keep your current wx pattern, period!  The map below depicts 4 hours of radar ending daybreak Monday morning.  

So by Tuesday afternoon, the GFS suggests the surface map to look something like this...a large area of high pressure controlling the eastern part of the USA.  Note that it is really only slightly above normal in terms of its forecasted pressure; (~1.5 SD above norms)...

But a larger and stronger area of High Pressure will be coming for the following weekend, essentially assuring another colder than normal period!  Interesting feature is obvious in the map above (tropical system), but in the map below, a more subtle look to the map is showing low pressure developing in the western Gulf and must be monitored for "Fowl" wx for Turkey Week.  

OK...enough said for now.  But I will leave y'all with this...I was once again very much entertained by the sport of high school football last evening and often look back at a game and try to understand how or why?  The East High tailback carried the ball 30 times once again for 170 yds...but in all honesty, I didn't think he had that many carries!  East High won that game in all aspects last night except in 2 very important categories; special teams (that 70 yd punt by the Dallastown punter was a "game-changer" as was the PI call on the "fake punt fade" play to the DT gunner in my opinion) and the ultimate category...THE SCORE! Nonetheless, the Panthers had a fine season, playing well into November when the majority of teams completed their season's 2 weeks back.  It's just tough to lose a game with only 16 seconds remaining...congrats to both Cats, but most definitely East High.

So who will come out of District 3 AAAA?  An Eagle or a Wildcat, or a Falcon, or a Bulldog?  That's a prediction I'll let y'all make.  I'll stick with the cold wx for the remainder of November!

Enjoy your week's end...and as always...thanks for reading!

Smitty

AA:  It's been cold so far this November...and more of the same is coming!  My favorite time of the year for high school football...but it is just a little cold at times!