Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
A very brief update as to my thoughts for this Sunday's snowfall. I am becoming more and more confident that snow will fall and possibly heavily in the Harrisburg area from overnight Saturday into the afternoon hours of Sunday. This should be a major winter event. The reason that I am becoming more bullish on this (although we are living through one of the most wimpy winters I've ever experienced!) is that both the GFS and the Euro are solving the atmosphere's players nearly identically.
Here the GFS for Sunday evening.....
Here is the Euro for Sunday evening...
Clear my eyes......
When both show the same solution from this far out in time.....watch out!
I hope to look at this a bit more later this evening.....
Why not; it's President's Day Weekend and it seems that we always have some type of wintry weather centered around this time. Recent memories of the Valentines Day storm of snow and ice in 2007 or the monster President's Day Weekend storm of 2003 argue that we should see some type of wintry wx this weekend climatologically and with this favorable upper air set up. HOWEVER, the persistence of the winter of 2011-12 argues that we should NOT! When I have more time to look at things further I'll brief y'all on a more extensive discussion, but as of now, here is the GFS snapshot for early morning Sunday. If this would verify, we would most certainly be looking at a major snow event that would indeed be plowable (Bush) and blowable (Yokes), but fall short of memorable. But when compared to this paltry winter, it would be the largest storm to date. Here is the model depiction.....
Whenever I see the GFS at this time frame with a low in this position, it may even veer further NW which would bring in more precip, but also more warm air....but a low at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay high pressure building to our north is a nice synoptic set up!
By the way, beware of just a touch of ice Thursday morning on UNTREATED surfaces; not the salt laden roads which we've traversed over the last few days!
Enjoy your Wednesday!
Smitty
AA: Watching for a major weekend snowfall centered on Sunday.
Today, as most of you are now aware, will be a snowfall of a "piddly proportion", but a snowfall nonetheless! We are looking at ~1-2" here in the KMDT area with the bulk of it fall between the hours of 2-4 pm or so....take a look at the plumes which are in nice agreement. I do believe the NWS will go with a winter wx advisory by their late morning shift....just my opinion....
Thursday will be nice for February...a seasonable day. Friday will become cloudy by afternoon with an approaching Arctic Front. Overnight Friday into Saturday, there will be a brief snowfall accompanying the Arctic front, but the wintry weather will be the cold with possibly our coldest temps Sunday night Monday morning if we have fresh snow on the ground from the Arctic Frontal passage.....
OK...sorry for the brevity...gotta go! Be careful this afternoon as a brief burst of snow will occur in the mid-afternoon.....
Smitty
AA: Brief snow Wed pm...and then waiting for the Arctic Front for the Saturday morning! Go Rams Wrestling!
What do Mitt Romney, Senator Joe Manchin (WV), and the winter of 2011-12 all have in common? They are associated with their respective affiliations IN NAME ONLY. As many of you are fully aware, Mitt Romney has numerous political ideals that are far more moderate than many of the planks of the conservative Republicans or dare I now say, the "Tea-Partiers". That is also the case of Senator Joe Manchin of WV who has more often voted with the Republicans than his own Democratic leadership in the Senate! Romney, some say a RINO, and Manchin, some calling him a DINO, and the Winter of 2011-12...our current winter season...which is simply a WINO or Winter In Name Only!
Look at this data:
December: 38.9ºF while normal should be 34.6ºF
January: 34.3ºF while normal should be 30.3ºF
February: 42.3ºF while normal through 1st 4 days should be 30.3ºF
Here is a graphic look at the last 31 days of temperatures for KMDT! There were only 5 days where temps in the last 31 days fell into the below normal range! Yes...it's been quite mild!
It's also been snowless as well. 4.6" of snow to date if you don't count the Halloween snow! That is a pathetic excuse for a Harrisburg snowfall season. Here is a graphic look at our last 27 years of snowfall at KMDT...
And a map of "normal" snowfall for PA...
This week promises to be at or above normal...AGAIN! Take a look at the 7 day running mean for this upcoming week. To explain, this is a forecast of temps compared to what they should be for this upcoming week. 6-9ºF is quite the deviation from normal...more $$ savings as less heating costs are needed. But note the blue in TX. That is the potential "storm" for us late this week into the weekend.
Clearly, there is some potential for a widespread major event with the 500 mb pattern setting up as seen below. Again, I circled in red the areas that must "phase" and join their respective energies in order to spin up a snowstorm for us here in the east. The potential is there; will the match and the gas be united? We will see...
One thing to be sure is that the period from Feb 10 to Feb 17 will be much colder than this upcoming week. That is some serious cold that will slide SE into the eastern part of the US once this trough digs south. Next weekend does have the potential to be a very wintry time...
But the core of the gelid air will still remain well north of the lower 48 as seen in the day 10 GFS' temps...so maybe one week of winter is what we will get this year with the WINO of 2011-12! That is a broad SW flow aloft with a "Bermuda High" sitting off the east coast of the US. That actually is a classic ice storm signature with cold air holding at the surface and light overrunning precip falling into the cold surface air. Way to early to speculate on something like that, but the bottom line is that once that trough moves through, the cold does not look to hold and Pacific air seems to want to dominate the US once again! However, with the deep cold just to our north, any precip must be carefully monitored for snow and ice potential.
The experimental re-forecast of the 500 mb ensembles for the medium range does not look too threatening either for a prolonged bout of winter wx here in the eastern US. It does show however a "split" flow across the lower 48 with the lower heights out over the desert SW...and there is a saying about a split flow...it's a wx man's woe! These are often tricky patterns to time and analyze. When looking at that map below, if you could simply move the blue areas to the east by about 500 miles, it would spell trouble through the month of February...
To date, this WINO has not been to hard to take. Even when there was a good potential for a light wintry event, the precip fell apart as it moved east into the dry air that was in place over PA. Here is the dying radar returns as of early Sunday morning. Just not enough moisture to fight through the dry air at the surface. And no real organization to the moisture that gave the plains states quite a snowfall over the last 24-36 hours.
And the Snow-Ice-Rain radar from Accu-Wx...
Here is the snow that fell over the plains the last day or so...it was a major event from Colorado into western Iowa.
But not so much here in the east as has been the case during this WINO. We may not see another "snowless" winter like this for 100 years...or it could happen again next year. It's just crazy how the wx patterns play out over time. Thus the need to examine "normals" which are more accurately 30 year averages. Running means are also used extensively to look for anomolies. And thinking of extraordinary, how about FIVE consecutive District 3 titles. That is what the CD Ram wrestling machine has accomplished this weekend...FIVE STRAIGHT D3 titles...Wow! Since 2002, it has been either CD or CV as the D3 champ with LD crashing the wrestling party in 2007. CV and Dallastown have made 17 appearances in the D3 tourney, but to win 5 straight is astounding! In addition, 93 straight dual meet PIAA wins and counting. We may not see something like this again in 100 years. Let's see...100 years, five...reminds me of Five for Fighting and the 2003 prolific piano hit song. Enjoy....
...and enjoy your Super Sunday!
Smitty
AA: Poor excuse for winter thus far. Another mild week upcoming. Looking for a storm possibility this weekend. It will be colder the next 7 days beginning this Friday. A genuine congrats to the CD Wrestling program for 5 straight D3 titles!
However, I do think we will see some very light snow for Sunday, probably arriving in the pre-dawn hours and giving KMDT ~1" (MAYBE...with this winter!) by mid-morning Sunday. It is an overrunning scenario with marginally cold but dry air to the north and a rather moisture filled system shearing off to our SE. Here is the most recent print out of precip by the NAM by early Sunday afternoon. Most, if not all, of the precip will fall as snow, but not all will accumulate due to warm surface temps of recent days. It could be a bit tricky early Sunday morning on your way to mass, worship, breakfast, the beer distributor to obtain Super Bowl refreshments....or even if you sleep in! Just be advised...
But if you sleep in too long you might just miss all of the action! By kickoff Sunday evening and most certainly by Monday, it will be all but a memory...look at the anomalous warmth once again! The map below is for Monday...
Now with this "winter" of 2011-12, and I use that term loosely, there does exist potential for late this upcoming week and the weekend time period. If all of the potential comes together, it will be the largest snowfall of the season. The modeling is suggesting that a cold and stormy remainder of the month is setting up beginning with this set-up. However, the modeling has been suggesting this change for a couple of weeks only to disappoint those of us who enjoy the winter weather! So pardon me for being a bit skeptical...but here is the potential in terms of the 500 mb chart. We need to get these 2 energies (circled in red) to phase and ultimately unite the northern and southern jets to produce a major east coast storm. It is one of the first times this year where from a week out it looks somewhat promising. However, don't hold your breath! Cold is almost a near certainty; will it be stormy?
Here is a map from the GFS trying to sniff out the possibility of a storm with the cold & dry to the north and the warm & humid to the south. I circled the areas of interest...the potential exists; now if the atmosphere would simply cooperate and manifest this into a major coastal development! It might be an exciting week to watch...but the realist in me is reminding me it is the winter of 2011-12!
The snow depth in the US is absolutely abysmal for those of you who enjoy nature's icing on the landscape. Northern New England, the northern lakes, and the high terrain of the west...THAT IS IT!
However, across the globe since mid January, snowfall has been above normal. And as some of you are aware, Alaska has had a record breaking January in terms of both snow and cold. At least 5 climatological stations had their COLDEST JANUARY EVER! Take a look at the graphic indicating the above normal snow cover...Just like the market had its "flash-crash" in 2010, that was a "flash-freeze" back in December! Sorry......
Here is a map showing the widespread snow cover in the northern hemisphere....just not in our backyards! It is fairly extensive...even over in Europe and Asia Minor at present. Europe has just suffered through a very cold week and snow was flying around the Vatican, a relatively rare event for that region! Even note the snow in the high Atlas Mountains of NW Africa!
But the winter of 2011-12 has been very benign here in the lower 48. That has not been the case across the globe. Take a look at how temps have plummeted over the last couple of weeks! Wow!
With the above graphic, I thought this is as good of time as any to introduce to some of you and replay for others what I feel should be a classic in a few short years to come! It's sad to say that Michael Mann is a PSU fellow!
Enjoy your Super Bowl weekend!
Smitty
AA: Very light early Sunday snow...and then once again looking for winter; this time there is real potential for a sizable event near the end of this upcoming week. But don't hold your breath!
The potential for a Super Bowl snow is still very much a possibility as the modeling is correcting further north...as is so often the case. Below is the NAM for Sunday afternoon...it brings a small amount of precip up towards the Harrisburg area. I don't have enough time to show you the maps, but the 500 mb vort max is actually moving eastward and consolidating its energy a bit more to help "phase" the moisture with the northern jet energy and soon we might be looking at a 2-4" snowfall for Sunday evening......If I have time in the am.......or if much changes, I will go more in depth then. As for now, gotta get over to CD for the CD-CV round ball games.
I just want to thank everyone for asking about Kay and her CT issue. As I said, I am weak; she is strong! Things are on the improve and before you know it, she'll be back to her engaging "firm handshake"....or like Pink Floyd stated in Dogs...
And after a while, you can work on points for style. Like the club tie, and
the firm handshake, A certain look in the eye and an easy smile.
OK...gotta head out!
Smitty
AA: Still looking at snow potential Sunday pm...and a Giants Super Bowl victory!
...but it is now becoming clear that winter will arrive beginning this weekend and possibly lock in through most of the month of February. Again let remind y'all that February is our snowiest month climatologically and it is looking as if that will once again be the case in the winter of 2011-12! It is hard to fathom that we will be looking at some rather severe winter weather after this rather mild upcoming mid-week period. Take a look at the raw temperature deviations from normal for this Wednesday...that is 18-21+F over southern PA!
But when we look at the GFS ensembles, look at how we trend to a ridge west, trough east configuration by this weekend...that is a sharp trough which has the potential to spin up a potent storm that should affect us here along the east coast sometime this weekend. Trust me, the ensembles are all over the place, but the theme is for a storm to develop over the lower Ohio Valley and transfer to a 2nd storm off the the NC coast. We often get sizable storms in a synoptic set-up of that nature!
Then by the middle of next week, some intense cold will enter the pattern as cross-polar flow discharges directly into the lower 48! That map below is a very cold map!
Look, the AO and the NAO are tanking...the numerical modeling is clearly suggesting the trend towards cold and stormy here in the east. Below, the last couple of runs are off the charts so to speak for the AO as per the GFS! Wow!
And here is the Euro's interpretation numerically of the NAO for the upcoming couple of weeks...it too wants to drop off the charts...kinda exciting if you like winter storms.
I was even a bit surprised the discussion coming out of HPC actually discussed the possibility of an east coast storm this weekend. Usually, they are very cautious about getting the public up in arms about the possibility or even probability of an east coast event at this time range! This is their published map as of Sunday afternoon for next Saturday. Note the high pressure over Quebec and albeit a weak low sitting just west of the 40-70 benchmark! Could be interesting! At the very least, it is something to monitor this week and that hasn't happened much, IF AT ALL, to this point in the winter season.
One thing looks nearly certain...it will be colder than normal starting this weekend. And most likely, stormier than normal as well. Mix those two ingredients together and we get a rockin' February if you like winter weather. My fear is that this pattern locks into March and spring is once again delayed; but obviously it can't be denied! So we are halfway through winter as marked by this Thursday's celebration of Groundhog Day...an astronomical cross quarter day between the Winter Solstice and the Vernal Equinox. If you've never taken the time to view Groundhog Day, it is most certainly worth the 2 hours of your time.
Have a great week and good luck to the CD Rams in their quest for yet another District 3 Wrestling Team title!
Smitty
AA: Mild week after a feisty cold front Sunday evening; then very mild for mid-week...followed by potentially a rather wild time beginning this weekend in terms of winter weather!
