Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Cement Mixer?

Just a very quick update as to my thoughts as y'all will hear many different ideas from many different sources...My thoughts are as follows:
1- Uncertainty remains as to frozen precip types and amounts
2- Plain rain will be difficult here with a big high to the north and arctic air pressing strongly
3- Confidence is gaining as to a very impactful storm Saturday evening into Monday
4-Very high confidence to bundle up and clear things quickly Sunday before a flash freeze occurs!

The maps...Euro ensembles as to the low pressure's location...uncertainty.
...and where it moves to 6 hours later...note how the surface low stays south of PA and keeps PA in the cold air, at the very least at the surface.

As for temps, the warmest progged by the Euro is Sunday morning where a hodgepodge of precip types will be falling in these parts...but the temps will be upper 20s to near 30°F...you do the math.
And by nightfall...well...brrrr...and this doesn't include the gusty NNW winds!  A good time to watch football if you have everything cleared!  

I am humbled by the many comments from y'all who read these and like to hear my ideas on things.  The one adage I have seen fairly consistent over the years is "Predict the high, predict the snow"...and with a 1035 mb high in Quebec and and 1042+ arctic high plunging into the Great Lakes, cold air is abundant at all levels...so time will tell.  I do think this will be a rather impactful winter event...and that is my call.

Enjoy this old jazz tune as did I looking for an appropriate ditty...


Smitty

AA:  Still a 2" precursor snow Thursday night into Friday morn to our impactful snow, sleet, frz rain mess to concrete by Sunday night!

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