Likely Louie

Over the past week, I have evolved quickly from "Doubting Dennis" through my ambivalent stage of "Nervous Nellie" to a now just less than certain "Likely Louie".  As most of y'all know, this is my hobby; to peruse the weather systems not just around our region, but across the CONUS and for that part, anomalous weather across the globe.  I was seeing the teleconnections from the Pacific Ocean hinting at a return to winter for a period here in March (MJO, EPO)..."O" in those previous abbv. represent oscillation where there are well known swings of a back-forth nature in the oceans and subsequently in the atmosphere as well.  For our sensible weather in these parts, simply think of it as warm-cold-warm-cold for the winter months.  But when these swings occur at the end of winter, major storm systems can fire.  I believe we have one waiting to spin up early next week...Here we go...I'll start y'all with what you want; accumulations from the models.  I'll show just the GFS this time as it has been rock solid for the last several runs; not that the Euro hasn't been, but the GFS a tiny bit more consistent...

If you look very closely, that 2' spot in York County is close to where our humble abode sits!  Anyway, analog weather forecasting is one of many tools to help predict future weather systems; take a snap shot of the atmospheric conditions from surface to stratosphere and compare the physical conditions to those of the past and let the computers sort through the myriad of data to determine the outcome of those initial conditions "x" number of days later.  Well, I will share with you the top 3 analogs from late this afternoon for early next week...Drumroll...First...#1; March 18, 2007...

Looks reasonable with the exception that coastal ME had a changeover which limited snow accumulations.  Also, the overall amount of precipitable water looks to be less than what I believe will be made available early next week.  Number 2...February 15, 2014...

This also is quite believable; however, just a tad too much snowfall down into the Smokies, but keep in mind, we are 1 month later than this analog.  A solid 1-2' through our immediate region...now #3...this anaolg just keeps showing up through all of the different time frames as well; never a top dog, but always within the top 5 analogs...the infamous March 1993!  A fully phased longitudinal planetary wave...I just get the heebie-jeebies typing that!  Essentially the arctic branch, the polar branch, and the sub-tropical branch of the jet stream all come together and play nicely together.  Clearly a difficult task; but not impossible.  (In fact, THREE branches of the jet stream are far more likely to work together than TWO PARTIES in our government.)  Sorry...just needed to be said.  That solution is certainly on the table, but I personally believe that happens about 3-4 times a century climatologically.  But come to think about it, 1993 was nearly a quarter century ago...?  Just sayin'...

The March 1993 nor'easter is the Number 1 NESIS (Northeast Snowfall  Impact Scale) system of all time.  Take a look...I remember that weekend like it was yesterday complete with sleet, thundersnow, and an entire week to get things back to normalcy due to the brutal cold that followed!  Again, I'm not saying that is this sytem next week, but it is certainly a possibility...

OK...I've hyped this enough for this evening.  Stay tuned.  Thanks for reading...And I'll leave y'all with a different story for a different type of snow...most are familiar with Clapton's take so I'll share Jackson Browne's lyric...enjoy at least the tune...

Smitty

AA:  Watching and waiting on our biggest snowfall for the 2016-17 cold season.  COULD be a doozy.  Double digits for many in/around our area.