Precip On The Way For The Week's End

I'll start this off with the statement that we could sure use some rain!  Imagine that...after record rainfall for 2011, we are a bit dry in these parts.  The anomalous warmth without any wetness hasn't helped alleviate the dry conditions.  Gotta get some rain so Ronnie can commence his grass farming activities for the 2012 lawn growing system.  Let me tell ya, this dude grows some great grass!  Anyway, here is the observed precip over the lower 48 for the last day, seven days and 2 weeks...
First, the last 24 hours...

Then the last week...Note the heavy rains and mountain snows in CA, OR, WA!

And now for the last 2 weeks...look at the fact that southeast PA has had less than 0.50" of rainfall!  It is becoming dry out there...

But all of that is about to change.  The most recent IR satellite pic clearly indicates the large cyclone over the middle of the country.  This storm will slowly migrate eastward bringing with it its moisture and instability in the form of colder temps aloft.  This will allow showers and even a few thundershowers to develop...but the convection should be limited due to the persistent marine intrusion from the Atlantic thanks to a gentle SE flow. 

Fog at 7; sun by 11...that should be the forecast for Friday.  However, Saturday might dawn truly overcast with the threat of rain relatively early in the day.  The modeling seems to have quickened the pace of the arrival of the rainfall, although I'm not completely sold on that!  Here are the ensemble plume graphs showing the sporadic showery nature of this upcoming precip event.  I tried to highlight the most likely time on Saturday (16-18Z for KMDT) for the greatest rainfall and that would be somewhere around noon or slightly after...but really a shower could pop up at any time during Saturday.

Here is the graphic that indicates the perceived radar returns during Saturday noonish...again note the hit and miss pattern of these springtime showers.

And by Sunday morning, here is the model's depiction of the total amount of precip that is forecast to fall.  If the banding moves further east, then obviously more rain will fall upon us.  To me, that doesn't look too likely for Saturday.  Sunday will also be wet, but the heaviest of the rain should have fallen by Saturday night...

So there you have it.  Nice Friday with near record warmth.  Cooler and most decidedly damper for both Saturday and Sunday.  Looking into next week, the temps will not be as warm, but we will still experience slightly above normal temps as offered by the GFS and its 7 day running mean ending next Saturday.  Tuesday will be the coolest day while temps will begin to moderate and become "warmer" by next weekend.  The warmest air will migrate a bit further west than where it was centered this past week.  Here is the 7 day running mean for next week...

So spring has most certainly sprung and with it will come the spring showers.  Enjoy this ditty from Jimmy Page and Robert Plant as they perform the "Rain Song".  Listening to Page and Plant can get anyone through a rainy day! After all, upon us all, a little rain must fall.....

Enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Nice Friday with sunshine by noon and near record warmth.  Rain will arrive in a showery fashion for the weekend.  Clearing out by Monday with temps cooling back to closer to the 30 yr average.  Tuesday will actually be the coolest day next week.  Here's a graphic for that...