Thursday, November 15, 2012

Tranquil Thursday...and Beyond

This is just about as quiet as the weather can be nationwide...look at the Home Page from the NWS and the LACK OF WATCHES & WARNINGS that are indicated on the map below.  This is quite tranquil, to be sure!  The "Tan" areas are simply Hazardous Wx Outlooks which are issued at a dime per dozen rate!  The 2 areas of any real concern are off the SE coast and the NW coast.  There is one lonely winter wx advisory in No. CA...and that is it!
Here is the satellite pic to verify the rather humdrum wx of this day.
A rather large area of high pressure is flexing its muscle over the intermountaine region with a weak jet stream disturbance moving into the desert SW.  A feisty onshore flow around SC is the reason for the storm flags flying along the coast....and that is it!  In fact, it appears that the weather will remain rather tranquil over the next several days...here is the GFS solution for Saturday.
The above map has minimal precip nationwide...with a large and in-charge high pressure system over the NE!  As for the storm next week that had to be monitored, well it now appears that it will be well off the coast.  Here is the Euro's depiction for next Wednesday.  Looks like a great day to prep the Turkey!  You might even feel a bit under "pressure" if the holiday crunch time doesn't get to you!  Look at the map...it's a joke!
However, enjoy the moderate wx as by the time next weekend rolls around, it is now beginning to appear the the cold that gathering on the north slope of AK and the land of Nunavut, it is starting to get unleashed for the lower 48.  Here is a graphic from the GFS 2 weeks hence that is simply brutally cold for late November!  I believe that the long wave pattern is such that cold will invade eastern NA and linger for many weeks to come beginning sometime late next weekend into early the following week...

The GFS Ensembles suggest cold to come with the negative NAO being forecasted for later this month...
And it is quite cold in the north country...
...as it is in many parts of the US as of 3 pm EST as per the map below...
So there you have it...mostly tranquil...followed by a bit more tranquillity Turkey week, with a chance of invasion of some true winter-like air by the end of the month!  LFS has taught me good...don't cha think?  If these pesky clouds clear out, look heavenward this evening or tomorrow morning early as the peak of the Leonid Meteor Shower will be occurring.  These are noted for very few meteors; however, one might be treated to a bright longer streak or possibly a fireball!  So be part of the 5% club and look skyward when you go outside the next 24 hours or so....or beyond...because nature is offering quite a show up/out there!

Have a great week's end...enjoy this Thanksgiving Song...
Smitty

AA:  Very mundane wx...not much exciting to talk about.  Meteor shower to peak early Friday morning...but these pesky low clouds will block most of that as well...I think Turkey Day and Black Friday will be the warmest of the next 3 weeks...and maybe longer...just a hunch!


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