Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Cool Damp Weekend

Enjoy the next couple of days because the wx will turn sour over the weekend.  The modeling is in remarkably good agreement with the synoptics and the timing of these features, so the confidence is rather high in what should transpire over the next several days.  After we reach a max temp today (Wed) in the low to mid 80s...yes that's right...the temps and the humidity will back down the next 2 days making Thursday and Friday splendid fall days.  Although there is a slight chance of showers Thursday morning, most of the next 3 days will be rain free.  Take a look at the SREF plumes...
Then, a rather potent front will be making its way across PA on Saturday.  Along with that will be widespread showers and some gusty conditions following the frontal passage.  Here are the temps one mile up as per the Euro model for Saturday.  Note the strong temperature gradient...ie...the front!

And the Euro spins up a little storm along the front as seen in the model below for Sunday.  This will give us a rather cloudy and rainy day of sorts for Sunday, especially in the morning hours...
...and EVEN SNOW across the northern parts of PA!  Wow!  The snowfall will be even greater in parts of the interior further northeast; say like up in New England and the Adirondacks!  Also note the deep snow pack beginning north of Lake Superior in O Canada!
Here is the official forecast for max temps for Sunday.  Note that a large part of western PA stays in the 40s for highs!  It's early for this type of chill! 
And here is how the NWS handles the official map for Saturday with the frontal passage.  They have the position of the front east of central PA by late morning.  I believe the passage will be more like midday.  The little wave down in LA and the deep south will be the rainmaker for us on Sunday...
So there you have it warm followed by cold and damp!  But I must quickly leave you with this.  I was listening to XM baseball this morning on my commute and the discussion was whether Migs Cabrera or Mike Trout should be the AL MVP?  Cabrera looks as if he will win THE TRIPLE CROWN!  Are you kidding?  This guy is by far the best offensive player in all of baseball and is earning a baseball title that only few have ever earned (16 I believe) and most of those triple crown winners were NOT FROM Modern baseball times!  Carl Yazstremski in 1967 was the last TC winner!  So this is a no brainer for me...
Enjoy your warm wx as this week comes to a close...

Smitty

AA:  Nice for a couple of days; the a cool and damp weekend!  Cabrera should easily be the MVP!  A TC winner...c'mon!

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