Analyzing August 2012

I've had many people mention to me over the last several days (since I've been ousted out of my humble abode due to the advent of school's onset) as to how hot the summer was.  Frankly, July was hot!  No doubt!  However, August was a slightly different story in terms of the absolute measurement of heat.  Just take a wild guess at what the hottest temp was in August 2012 for KMDT....c'mon...I dare ya!  If you guessed 90F, you were spot on!  We had 2 times when the Hg hit 90F and not a notch higher!  ONLY 2!  Because of the humid conditions, we had an August of merely 1 degree F above the 30 year average.  Here is a graphic representing the temp and precip for KMDT...YTD.  Note that August was also a wetter than normal month; hence, the humid conditions that were prevalent during August 2012. Quantitatively, KMDT received 5.99" of liquid sunshine which is 2.79" above the "norm".  And quite frankly, we needed that rain...

As I hinted earlier, I believe that the 1st 2 weeks of September will feature above normal rainfall as we may be affected by 2 tropical systems.  Isaac's remnants will be the first to deliver the goods to central PA...primarily during the later Sunday to mid-day Tuesday time frame.  Some modeling keeps the wx unsettled in these parts through most of Wednesday.  According to HPC, here is the total rainfall through Wednesday...that's 3-4" by Thursday morn'...

I also like this graphic which is the ensembles of the GFS.  What this does is that it shows the mean or average of 16 runs of the model with ever so slightly different initial conditions...and the subsequent feedback as to where the wx systems will travel and how they behave.  The map below shows the likelihood of 0.75" or rain is very high for the 24 hour period ending Wednesday am. 

Here is the operational run of the GFS for the the total precip over a 60 hour period (2.5 days) ending Thursday morning...note the purple over central PA.  Also, be wary of the hurricane that lurks out in the Atlantic...

So where is Isaac now?  Here is an IR picture of the USA as of Saturday afternoon...note the curculation over Mizzou and Illinois.  That will gradually migrate eastward and affect our sensible wx over the next several days.

So what to expect?  I'd say that rain could fall anytime from early Sunday to later Wednesday.  It will not be raining all of the time...but it will be damp...and could be very wet in parts depending as to where the thunderstorms develop.  As seen with the current radar pic, note the "hot" cells that would be putting down at least 0.5"/hour of rain.  Here are the current radar returns (4:40 pm EDT Saturday) from the Pittsburgh, PA radar.  This will be the nature of these tropical troubles...

Speaking of trouble...those damn Yankees.  I actually thought the Os could close the AL East lead down to ONE GAME.  But noooooooo....the Os found a way to bobble the game away.  At least Jeter earned a game tying RBI bases loaded walk before Swish grounded into what should have been an inning ending 6-3.  Oh well....here's cheering for the Os to not only to keep pressure in the Wildcard, but to actually keep pressure on the front running Yankees.  Go Os!

OK...it's Labor Day weekend...I'll just quit rambling and end with this 1978 Styx classic...

Enjoy your celebration of the American worker!

Smitty

AA:  Looks to be rather damp and dismal through Wednesday.  Certainly warm and humid...probably get about 2-3" of rain when all is said and done.  Happy Labor Day my friend.