Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Hounds of Winter Howlin' Next Week

If one is to believe both the GFS and the ECMWF, the hounds of winter will be howlin' next week.  Both numerical solutions depict not just one but 2 deep troughs diving SE from Canada.  Along with the trough will come very cold and dry air that will ignite a vigorous round of lake effect snows in the lee of the lakes both on/about Tuesday and then again about Friday.  Here are the 850 mb temps first from the GFS.  The large region of bright lavender indicates temps at a mile up would be close to ~0-5 above F.  Surface temps would be in the 20s to near 30 if this would verify!
The Euro is in close agreement...take a look.  That's as far out as I can run this model, but 12 hours later would have the core of the cold over PA and points northeast.
Then next Friday comes along and another shot of very cold air comes a callin'.  Here is the GFS for next Friday, or about 10 days from now.  That is an expansive area of cold and places on the Tug Hill plateau of upstate NY will get slammed with lake effect if this verifies.  Most of the US will have below normal temps the middle to end of next week as indicated by the map below.
As for the nearer term and more importantly this Saturday evening for the football District 3 AAAA championship game to be contested at Hershey Park Stadium, the weather appears to be quite "fair", albeit a tad chilly!  That is one large elongated high pressure ridging SW to NE over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  The lighter blue suggests surface temps will be in the 30s with the darker blue in central PA closer to the freezing mark.  Winds will be light from the south thanks to the retreating high pressure off to our east.  So wx should not be an issue in deciding the outcome of this game!
$254 million was quietly claimed today by 3 Wall Street moguls who certainly suggest that the "rich keep getting richer"!  At 195,000,000:1 odds against winning the grand prize, I would suggest you continue to dollar cost average into your favorite mutual fund and allow time to compound your savings into a meaningful "prize" that you'll be grateful to have during your "Golden Years".  You actually have better odds of catching lightning in a bottle than hitting the power ball number!  Unlike what these cats do with their clients' moolah, they'll likely take their lump sum of dough and place it in guaranteed securities and depositories!  I doubt if they'll be buying Italian or Greece bonds!
Enjoy your mid-week.

Smitty

AA:  Coldest air will blast over lakes early and then again later next week.  And the "Rich Keep Getting Richer"!

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