Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Just a very quick post to my loyal readers that this is indeed a hideous wave of heat, not just for us, but the entire northeast quadrant of the USA. Please be careful when you hear of record heat in major cities as I've seen many pundits and talking heads quoting the heat index (real feel temps) vs the actual thermometer reading. Clearly, the heat indices are 100°F+ in many locations across the northeast; however, the actual temps are having trouble rivaling the triple digit temps that are records in many places for this time of year. Frankly, it is due to the extreme humidity and the wet ground from all of the recent rains...
First the heat advisories and warning in effect as of this writing...
And the current observations as of 4 pm eastern...
Note how the rain from the cluster of T-storms both in the Carolinas and the WI-MI region cool the air...and tomorrow, the 500 mb ridge is still holding strong in the northeast quadrant...the yellow colors show above normal temps in the upper atmosphere still tomorrow...
...but by Tuesday, check this out! Relief, O Canadian style! The blue colors are below normal temps aloft, and the deeper blues are much below normal! And much below normal for July will feel just fine!
OK...with me saying blues so much, maybe a blues tune. Well, not so much! My lovely bride loves Linda Ronstadt and here's a song that's quite apropos...enjoy!
Relief is on the way...
Smitty
AA: Hot yet Sunday; transition day with numerous storms Monday, temps dropping below norms for middle of next week and becoming normal by week's end. 50 years ago tonight, we landed 2 humans on the moon! Show your kids the moon tonight (though it rises late at 11 pm) and mention to them that only 12 humans have ever walked on the moon (and 4 are still living today!)
I absolutely abhor how science has fallen prey to being politicized as much as it has in recent times, especially the topic of climate science. Most of you reading this have heard of the phrase "starving artists". Well, in reality, there are also many starving scientists and the numbers would be far greater if it were not for government funding. I guess this could be argued for many various government funded programs; however, my point is the funding by government to research a topic with a predetermined agenda will create a bias towards the outcome. And I truly believe that is the current case with climate science. All we hear about is the earth is getting warmer and warmer! Indeed, the data below shows that to be the case as per the UAH (University of Alabama Huntsville) satellite data of the lowest 5 miles of earth's atmosphere. And much of the global warmth anomaly is enhanced by warmer polar regions of the globe.
However, I am a firm believer that what drives the climate system of the earth and essentially all of the external processes of the earth (and possibly some of the internal processes as well) is 'ol sol! That big ball of ionized plasma gives earth plenty of heat and light, albeit not evenly distributed, that drives the physical processes of the day to day weather changes and the ultimate long term climate of the planet. There have been ups and downs with the climate over the millenia; ice ages to interglacial warmth. The question begs why? The answer with the agenda attached is CO2 and the fact that we humans are creating an atmospheric increase of this trace gas that is creating a catastrophic change in the earth's atmosphere's temperature. Indeed, CO2 has increased over the last 100 years...
The zig-zag red line fluctuates annually due to increased photosynthesis during the warmer season; greater growth and therefore depletion of atmospheric CO2 by thriving plants. But my point is let's look at another factor of weather and ultimately climate...the sun! Most of you are aware of the 11 year sunspot cycle from maximum number of observed sunspots to very few or none in an 11 year cycle. This has been observed and measured for nearly 300 years; Galileo is credited with first seeing these imperfections on the sun and used them to note the sun's rotation. Here is the graph of these cycles and a pic of the sun with many spots and none.
The Space Weather Prediction Center has just released its prediction for our upcoming solar cycle 25 and their thoughts are it will be well below "normal". That's a good thing for space exploration, satellites, space station visits, etc...due to a lesser threat of major flares and energetic coronal mass ejections. Here's their latest graphic of confirmed sunspot activity through last year.
But what about earth's weather and climate? Note the graph above the sun pics and in particular the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum. These were periods with fewer than normal sunspots and the corresponding weather that followed was rather brutal. Extensive cold outbreaks and freezing temps in the mid-latitudes all year long created famine and hardship. The Little Ice Age (1650-1700) and the The Year Without A Summer (1816) are often tied to the fact that 'ol sol was not very active! So why aren't we hearing about a weakening solar cycle about to occur? And possibly a subsequent drop in global temperatures as the oceans cool over the longer term. Study carefully the graph below. I stumbled upon this excellent depiction of our current solar cycle minimums compared to the Dalton Minimum.
According to the graph, the colder times came nearer the end of the Dalton Minimum. Will our climate begin to shift again over the next decade or two? Will my son's newborn daughter live during a period of time when shouts of an impending ice age is the norm? Will there be classic novels written with anomalous cold in a region where snow and ice are rare, similar to Dickens' "A Christmas Carol"? This is what fascinates me about the complexities of the natural world. There are so many variables that to blame just ONE is in my humble opinion just plain nuts!
OK...I'm done. I just wanted to make sure y'all know where I stand on climate science. It's complicated to be sure, but not this tune! Enjoy...
Smitty
AA: I'm not happy how politics drives science research. I believe the sun is the ultimate earth system driver. As for the weather, typically summer over the next week with above normal temps and below normal precip. A time to dry and a time to fry!
As many of you who read this know my wife and I are early risers. Very early risers to many. Recently, upon our early morning awakening, my wife asked in confirmation, "Is that bright object Jupiter?" Well "yes it is" was my reply! I went on to explain that in a few weeks, Jupiter would be in opposition to Earth and thus causing it to get so bright in the sky. It was a quick explanation and I think I'll give a quick blog post explanation to y'all.
First...just what is opposition? It is when an object (planet) is opposite of the sun in our sky. When that occurs, the superior planet (a planet whose orbit is outside of earth's orbit around the sun) is closest to the earth and therefore appearing very bright as the reflected light travels a shorter distance to us earthlings. In addition, opposition places the planet at its highest point in the sky at midnight...opposite of the sun. So with the darkest skies and the reflected light traveling through the least amount of earth's atmosphere, the planet will be quite bright!
So tonight, June 10, Jupiter will be in opposition of the earth. For the next several nights, if you are up and it is clear, take a gander at the king of the planets. If you are so inspired, you might even see a moon or two of Jupiter with a good pair of binoculars or simple telescope. Opposition is the best time to do this; however, an opposition near the summer solstice is not the best opposition. You see, the night time ecliptic is low in the sky during our summer. In the day, the sun is obviously climbing higher and higher in the sky until the summer solstice on June 21 at 11:54 am. On that day, we here in Harrisburg will have the "noon" time sun at about 73.5° high in the sky. Conversely, at midnight, the highest Jupiter could be is about 26.5° assuming it is directly on the ecliptic path. But if the opposition occurred in the winter, Jupiter, or any superior planet would be much higher in the sky! The same is true about the full moon. Tonight, "midnight" occurs just a tad after 1:00 am when the sun is farthest below the horizon. Here's a graphic showing how short dark night really is near our summer solstice!
So where should I look? South...and you won't miss both Jupiter and Antares, the heart of the scorpion. Funny enough, Jupiter is actually in the constellation Ophiuchus (o-Fee-uh-cuss). This is what has become known as our 13th zodiac constellation as the moon, sun, and planets spend more time technically in the region of the constellation of the snake handler as opposed to the scorpion! In fact, it only takes the sun 1 week to travel through Scorpius. Ophiuchus is not very bright and in our light polluted skies, it is very difficult to locate. However, Antares (not Mars) is easy to locate along with the 3 stars above.
Below is a map showing the ecliptic and the short amount of time the sun spends in Scorpius...you see the blue line is where the sun, moon, and planets travel in the sky. And also note how skinny the area is of Scorpius where the blue line crosses through. Thus, the wanderers spend more time with the snake handler than with the scorpion!
OK...gonna roll. I just thought I'd mention the astronomical opposition of Jupiter to y'all and for those of you that are often awake after midnight, look south to see those two bright heavenly bodies. Here is a tune that can accompany your viewing! Enjoy!
Smitty
AA: Jupiter reaches opposition June 10 this year. It is when the planet is closest to the earth and therefore appears very bright in the sky. The next opposition for Jupiter will be July 14, 2020 and Jupiter will actually be ~12 million miles closer than tonight! Look south to locate the very bright planet (white) and the not quite as bright red giant star Antares to its right. Antares is 600+ light years away while Jupiter tonight is about 35 light minutes from earth! That's kinda funny...at least to me!
Just a bit weather here with this blog post. But more importantly, a genuine and sincere "thank you" to all who have encouraged me to (especially during winter wx events) voice my opinion as to what I believed the sensible weather would be. Or more directly; how much snow? We goin' to be in school tomorrow? I never thought I'd be doing a "blogger"; I thought my email was being forwarded to those who wanted to see my thoughts...why?...I'm not sure? Then, I linked on FB. My point is this; I never thought anyone really was that interested, but obviously a few glances were taken. And that's how I persevered through my 35 years...a few were listening, interested, caring...etc! And likely, many of you reading this understand that sentiment, but believe me, we all had more than a few cursory impressions upon our cherubs. And many of you reading this will be recharged next fall to carry on that mission of public schooling...and to that end I applaud and thank y'all! Now onto a brief look into the weather...
First, the 500 mb temps as per the Euro 10 days hence...for my buddy Z...
OK...what the heck is that showing? It's showing a surface cold front will likely be pressing south towards PA after what will be a reasonably "normal"weekend weather wise moving into the first full week of summer vacation! I like to look at surface dew points to get a real feel for the guidance trends. Note that next Monday, we in PA will have similar dew points (humidity) as the Floridians who love it!
But 24 hours later, here comes the refreshing air from O Canada! Note how it presses all the way to the Gulf Coast! Impressive for June!
Thus...making the first 5 days kinda normal temperature wise in these parts!
But for late next week and next weekend, substantially cooler (and drier) air will envelop much of the lower 48 with the exception of the Pacific northwest...enjoy it!
And in terms of precip...slightly above normal for the next week's worth of rain...most falling in these parts around Monday and then again Thursday...still uncertain for those rain events however...
OK...gotta roll. The birds are hammering the feeders and I promised my lovely bride I'll keep our feathered friends and their fledglings well nourished on her extended work morning today. So I'll leave y'all with this ditty from Gordon Lightfoot; Kay turned me onto the lyrics of this song, and I found it somewhat germane for my present working situation...
Happy Summer y'all and many genuine thanks to all my co-educators for the many kind words and well-wishes for my days ahead! And as always, thanks for reading!
Smitty
AA: Normal summer wx through next Monday, then a strong and possibly a gusty frontal passage with possible severe storms Monday pm. We could get some showers Sunday, but much more likely Monday pm and again Thursday-ish! Don't work too hard this summer; enjoy those youngins!
Just a very brief discussion this morning concerning the 500 mb level in the troposphere...up about 18,000' or so. You see, the altitude varies due to a number of reasons, temperature being a major factor. When the 500 mb heights are low, the air is colder and more dense dropping the 500 mb constant pressure level closer to the surface of the earth. The converse of this statement is also true. With that said, when the upper air is colder than normal, often clouds and precipitation result at the surface of the earth. Well, this Easter weekend 2019 sees one heckuva trough (low heights) digging into the old, deep south and lifting and dying right over PA through Monday. The jet stream which can often move these pools of cool aloft is well displaced to our north...I'll let the maps do the remainder of the discussion. I will display the 500 mb level every 12 hours beginning Good Friday morning...
Good Friday evening...this is when we will likely see our heaviest precip into early Saturday morning as a strong surface low and cold front slowly push across the state...
Saturday sunrise...
Saturday evening...
Easter sunrise...note the jet running parallel to the USA-O Canada border with the isobars closely packed together...winter cold across northern O Canada; spring warmth across the US except under the dying trough...
Easter evening...
Easter Monday am...again the jet is zonal running west to east just north of US 2; really looking forward to driving that glorious route across the north country (Maine to Washington) in the not so distant future!
As for the rain Friday night into Saturday morning in these KMDT parts, well, the global models are consistent with ~1.0-1.5" of rain whereas the short-range regional models are indicating much less than that in the Harrisburg area with the heaviest rains falling both to our NW and to our east...here; take a look...
Either way...Happy Easter y'all. I'll leave you with this very timely & poignant negro spiritual number performed nicely by Willie...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: The goods (rains) being delivered for grass growing season! (see crop soil moisture map below...) A bit more sun next week and it will be off to the races for you and others trying to keep pace with the lawn farmers! Ample soil moisture, mild days and cool nights make for a tired Timmy and an irritable one when those BoSox keep losing!
In my book, it is now officially spring! And for many reasons; some theoretical and others empirical. The most obvious experience was the slow moving cold front that managed to pop a thundershower in our region Friday afternoon! With temps in the mid 70s and a strong southwesterly jet about 1 mile up, enough lift was generated in the relatively dry air to manage a nice little spring surprise. Couple that with the bomb cyclone producing record low pressures over Kansas earlier this week and the spring blizzard across the northern plains, it's clearly evident we are in a transitional season. Frankly, now that sunset is approaching 7:30 pm local time, how can anyone deny spring has sprung? Many have asked if we are done with winter and snow...and I believe we have a reminder skiff coming, (after all, it is still March)...but winter's spine has been broken for 2018-19. Please allow me to expound...
First piece of evidence, our little "surprise" thundershower. It was enough to upset our 11 year old girl who within the year has become the best barometer in the house. Zola, our border collie mutt, has recently realized she has the innate ability to detect rapid atmospheric changes and tends to become highly agitated. Friday evening was a prime example as a few small convective cells popped in our neighborhood. Here is a still shot of the radar...note the snow back over Lake Michigan...a sign of the cold advection on NW flow for the weekend.
In addition, all time record low pressures were set (preliminary data only; not yet confirmed) in both Colorado and Kansas. The lowest pressure officially recorded to date was 968 mb in SW Kansas...this is nearly as strong as a Category 2 hurricane...3 mb shy! The satellite presentation was spectacular...the real spin occurs at the end of the loop. Look at the "atmospheric river" coming off the Pacific Ocean feeding the water vapor into this monster. Simply awesome meteorology!
Here is a 1 minute video link of various views, notably more visible imagery!
Of course, we were on the warm side of this magnificent atmospheric mammoth! That brought our warmth for both Thursday and Friday...below was Friday afternoon and its glorious warmth!
But lurking to the north and west is winter. I shared the graphic below with a colleague earlier this week and the response was "that's crazy!". It's been a cold winter in the Great Lakes and northern plains and with the deep snowpack along with the extensive ice over the lakes, any NW flow at low levels will try to inhibit warming in the Ohio Valley and points east. At least we have the Appalachians to help orographically downslope the air and bring at least a few degrees of warming south and east of the mountains. From the looks of the ice compared to the "norms", I believe we need a New Green Deal! Lots of ice on the Great Lakes when compared to the 30 year average...
And speaking of averages, this upcoming 3rd week of March will be below the 30 year average. Here's a graphic for the PA averages from my favorite meteorological television offering...
...and it appears we will likely fall short of those temps most of the upcoming week. Take a look...that's a 5 day anomaly of ~10ºF below norms for this weekend into later next week as per the Euro; my go to model as its skill score continues to out dual the GFS!
However, the following week appears to warm into spring and the longer range modeling suggests a warm April might just be in the cards, but that is a different story for a different day! Here's the Euro's take for next weekend into the last week of March 2019. By the way, that is NOT a severe weather signature for the south...good news for them!
And for what it is worth, here is that potential "skiff" I alluded to earlier. Some just might call it the "onion snow". For me, simply a reminder that the upper atmosphere is still quite cold, but that the March sun is getting stronger and stronger to warm the lower levels as observed yesterday!
So come 5:58 pm EDT on Wednesday, the sun will be our side of the equator and continue to head north until 11:54 am EDT June 21, 2019. I bet being at the location shown below would be a wild time...don't cha think?
If it's still standing?
Sorry...I digress! OK...I've rambled long enough. The song Smitty; get to the song! Well, I mentioned thunder earlier and one of my favs that mentions thunder is from who my wife affectionately refers to me as "my girl". I hope you enjoy this Fleetwood Mac classic as much as I...
Happy Week's end (and Saint Patrick's Day for those of you so inclined)!
Smitty
AA: Nature of convection; rain south and sun north of your location! We had a faint rainbow upon shower's passing. Back to normal and below this upcoming week and mainly DRY! Time for the yardmaster to get his mowing equipment ready for the soon to be upon us mowing season! MLB season, along with spring starts this Wednesday!
Just a very quick post this evening to update this 1st part of March. Good news/bad news...Good news is once past the Ides of March, things should definitely improve in terms of the weather, albeit still a tad on the coolish side...no record warmth that I'm seeing. Bad news...we've got to endure winter's final fury until things tend to settle down a bit...
First off...another quick hit of snow during the overnight into early morning that will make the Friday morning commute somewhat of an adventure I do believe...the Euro has been most consistent and the GFS just got bullish as well on the snow in the KMDT region...the graphic below is about as textbook of a turnpike snow that I've ever seen!
And temps will be stubborn to rise tomorrow, but the higher March sun angle will help in spite of the cloud cover...Saturday will also have some light precip, frozen style, but the bigger ticket is Sunday night into Monday. Here is where the models have wavered back/forth, but the axis of heaviest snows looks to go directly through our region once again. The trend for the Euro, seen below, has been to slowly shift the axis south...while the GFS is moving it north. This has the POTENTIAL to be our biggest snowfall of the winter season. Still much uncertainty, but the global models have begun to hone into a PA special...the graphic below does not include tonight's 2-3" skiff...
I will just mention...but no graphics...another coastal is modeled for next weekend! But I will show this; the temp anomalies for next week at 850 mb (one mile up for better representation of air mass movement)...Brrrrr! Barney purple cold! Bright side? The means are slowly rising...and the days (daylight) are getting longer!
OK...enough...I said quick update. Just get to the tune...In spite of the Harper signing today, I'm ready for spring and the crack of the bat. Maybe one these March blogs will someday come from sunny Sarasota or Clearwater...or BOTH! Enjoy...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Cold and stormy for the 1st 2 weeks of March; then a break I do believe. I'm not a fan of the Harper signing by Philadelphia.
PS: Check your home barometers if you have one next week...just wonder how that 1050+ mb holds together as it advects SE towards the CONUS and PA. That's the true "Arctic Slide"...
