The Fat Old Sun

I absolutely abhor how science has fallen prey to being politicized as much as it has in recent times, especially the topic of climate science.  Most of you reading this have heard of the phrase "starving artists".  Well, in reality, there are also many starving scientists and the numbers would be far greater if it were not for government funding.  I guess this could be argued for many various government funded programs; however, my point is the funding by government to research a topic with a predetermined agenda will create a bias towards the outcome.  And I truly believe that is the current case with climate science.  All we hear about is the earth is getting warmer and warmer!  Indeed, the data below shows that to be the case as per the UAH (University of Alabama Huntsville) satellite data of the lowest 5 miles of earth's atmosphere.  And much of the global warmth anomaly is enhanced by warmer polar regions of the globe.

However, I am a firm believer that what drives the climate system of the earth and essentially all of the external processes of the earth (and possibly some of the internal processes as well) is 'ol sol!  That big ball of ionized plasma gives earth plenty of heat and light, albeit not evenly distributed, that drives the physical processes of the day to day weather changes and the ultimate long term climate of the planet.  There have been ups and downs with the climate over the millenia; ice ages to interglacial warmth.  The question begs why?  The answer with the agenda attached is CO2 and the fact that we humans are creating an atmospheric increase of this trace gas that is creating a catastrophic change in the earth's atmosphere's temperature.  Indeed, CO2 has increased over the last 100 years...

The zig-zag red line fluctuates annually due to increased photosynthesis during the warmer season; greater growth and therefore depletion of atmospheric CO2 by thriving plants.   But my point is let's look at another factor of weather and ultimately climate...the sun!  Most of you are aware of the 11 year sunspot cycle from maximum number of observed sunspots to very few or none in an 11 year cycle.  This has been observed and measured for nearly 300 years; Galileo is credited with first seeing these imperfections on the sun and used them to note the sun's rotation.  Here is the graph of these cycles and a pic of the sun with many spots and none.

The Space Weather Prediction Center has just released its prediction for our upcoming solar cycle 25 and their thoughts are it will be well below "normal".  That's a good thing for space exploration, satellites, space station visits, etc...due to a lesser threat of major flares and energetic coronal mass ejections.  Here's their latest graphic of confirmed sunspot activity through last year.

But what about earth's weather and climate?  Note the graph above the sun pics and in particular the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum.  These were periods with fewer than normal sunspots and the corresponding weather that followed was rather brutal.  Extensive cold outbreaks and freezing temps in the mid-latitudes all year long created famine and hardship.  The Little Ice Age (1650-1700) and the The Year Without A Summer (1816) are often tied to the fact that 'ol sol was not very active!  So why aren't we hearing about a weakening solar cycle about to occur?  And possibly a subsequent drop in global temperatures as the oceans cool over the longer term.  Study carefully the graph below.  I stumbled upon this excellent depiction of our current solar cycle minimums compared to the Dalton Minimum. 

According to the graph, the colder times came nearer the end of the Dalton Minimum.  Will our climate begin to shift again over the next decade or two?  Will my son's newborn daughter live during a period of time when shouts of an impending ice age is the norm?  Will there be classic novels written with anomalous cold in a region where snow and ice are rare, similar to Dickens' "A Christmas Carol"?  This is what fascinates me about the complexities of the natural world.  There are so many variables that to blame just ONE is in my humble opinion just plain nuts!  

OK...I'm done.  I just wanted to make sure y'all know where I stand on climate science.  It's complicated to be sure, but not this tune!  Enjoy...

Smitty

AA:  I'm not happy how politics drives science research.  I believe the sun is the ultimate earth system driver.  As for the weather, typically summer over the next week with above normal temps and below normal precip.  A time to dry and a time to fry!