It Is Now Officially Spring

In my book, it is now officially spring!  And for many reasons; some theoretical and others empirical.  The most obvious experience was the slow moving cold front that managed to pop a thundershower in our region Friday afternoon!  With temps in the mid 70s and a strong southwesterly jet about 1 mile up, enough lift was generated in the relatively dry air to manage a nice little spring surprise.  Couple that with the bomb cyclone producing record low pressures over Kansas earlier this week and the spring blizzard across the northern plains, it's clearly evident we are in a transitional season.  Frankly, now that sunset is approaching 7:30 pm local time, how can anyone deny spring has sprung?  Many have asked if we are done with winter and snow...and I believe we have a reminder skiff coming, (after all, it is still March)...but winter's spine has been broken for 2018-19.  Please allow me to expound...

First piece of evidence, our little "surprise" thundershower.  It was enough to upset our 11 year old girl who within the year has become the best barometer in the house.  Zola, our border collie mutt, has recently realized she has the innate ability to detect rapid atmospheric changes and tends to become highly agitated.  Friday evening was a prime example as a few small convective cells popped in our neighborhood.  Here is a still shot of the radar...note the snow back over Lake Michigan...a sign of the cold advection on NW flow for the weekend.

In addition, all time record low pressures were set (preliminary data only; not yet confirmed) in both Colorado and Kansas.  The lowest pressure officially recorded to date was 968 mb in SW Kansas...this is nearly as strong as a Category 2 hurricane...3 mb shy!  The satellite presentation was spectacular...the real spin occurs at the end of the loop.  Look at the "atmospheric river" coming off the Pacific Ocean feeding the water vapor into this monster.  Simply awesome meteorology!

Here is a 1 minute video link of various views, notably more visible imagery!

Of course, we were on the warm side of this magnificent atmospheric mammoth!  That brought our warmth for both Thursday and Friday...below was Friday afternoon and its glorious warmth!

But lurking to the north and west is winter.  I shared the graphic below with a colleague earlier this week and the response was "that's crazy!".  It's been a cold winter in the Great Lakes and northern plains and with the deep snowpack along with the extensive ice over the lakes, any NW flow at low levels will try to inhibit warming in the Ohio Valley and points east.  At least we have the Appalachians to help orographically downslope the air and bring at least a few degrees of warming south and east of the mountains.  From the looks of the ice compared to the "norms", I believe we need a New Green Deal!  Lots of ice on the Great Lakes when compared to the 30 year average...

And speaking of averages, this upcoming 3rd week of March will be below the 30 year average.  Here's a graphic for the PA averages from my favorite meteorological television offering...

...and it appears we will likely fall short of those temps most of the upcoming week.  Take a look...that's a 5 day anomaly of ~10ºF below norms for this weekend into later next week as per the Euro; my go to model as its skill score continues to out dual the GFS!

However, the following week appears to warm into spring and the longer range modeling suggests a warm April might just be in the cards, but that is a different story for a different day!  Here's the Euro's take for next weekend into the last week of March 2019.  By the way, that is NOT a severe weather signature for the south...good news for them!

And for what it is worth, here is that potential "skiff" I alluded to earlier.  Some just might call it the "onion snow".  For me, simply a reminder that the upper atmosphere is still quite cold, but that the March sun is getting stronger and stronger to warm the lower levels as observed yesterday! 

So come 5:58 pm EDT on Wednesday, the sun will be our side of the equator and continue to head north until 11:54 am EDT June 21, 2019.  I bet being at the location shown below would be a wild time...don't cha think? 

If it's still standing?

Sorry...I digress!  OK...I've rambled long enough.  The song Smitty; get to the song!  Well, I mentioned thunder earlier and one of my favs that mentions thunder is from who my wife affectionately refers to me as "my girl".  I hope you enjoy this Fleetwood Mac classic as much as I...

Happy Week's end (and Saint Patrick's Day for those of you so inclined)!

Smitty

AA:  Nature of convection; rain south and sun north of your location!  We had a faint rainbow upon shower's passing.  Back to normal and below this upcoming week and mainly DRY!  Time for the yardmaster to get his mowing equipment ready for the soon to be upon us mowing season!  MLB season, along with spring starts this Wednesday!