Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
It really doesn't get much better than this synoptically for a coastal storm to develop and then sit and spin off the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few days. ALL, and I do mean ALL of the ingredients came together to deliver copious amounts of rain to the Lower Susquehana Valley. A vast high pressure system to the north, deep tropical moisture from the Gulf (Karen remnants), deep tropical moisture from the tropical Atlantic, low level vorticity from what once was TS Karen, and a cutoff upper 500 mb low over the central Appalachians, anomalously warm waters off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and a strong 700 mb-850 mb jet driving in mid-level moisture from the warm ocean, and finally the low level air upsloping the Piedmont to rain out over the KMDT region! I'll try to show some of this...1st, here is the visible satellite of this Coastal Crawler as of midday Friday. Note the "eye" just east of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
Below is a satellite view of the Atlantic this past Monday. In blue is the remnants of Karen; both spin and moisture. Off to the east is deep tropical moisture from the very warm tropical Atlantic. Thanks to the weak upper air pattern, these 2 decided to get together and create the Coastal Crawler! For those of you who recall, this was the front that passed through and gave us 0.75" rain Monday. The old frontal boundary also aided in the development of this storm!
As for the warm oceans...note the anomalous warmth off the Delmarva!
As for the mid-level jet, look at the initialization of the Euro...look at that fire hose, that starts out around Bermuda, pointing right at KMDT! Unreal! When this happens in the Pacific, and heavy rains fall in Cali, it is known as the "Pineapple" connection. What would we connect with in Bermuda?? I was even thinking...if this were a winter set-up, that jet is so strong and so long that if this were a no-doubt about it snow storm, at the height of the storm, the precip would switch to sleet with the mid-levels warming to above freezing with the ocean air!
High pressure...ok...here is that current map! Look at that huge dome (1032 mb) centered over Quebec ridging south and west and east blocking the Coastal Crawler from...well...even crawling!
So now we have the perfect set-up for the perfect storm. As for the upsloping; well, sea-level to 500' and then some in many places above sea level with an easterly flow spells trouble with all of the above in place. That's why the rain has come...and will stay yet for a little while...here is the official call from NOAA for the next 6 hours...
And the current 24 hour total derived by radar...would not be surprised to see some purple show up when all is said and done! As of 1 pm...these are quick additions...York Airport: just under 8", Cap City ~7.5", KMDT: just over 7", Smitty: same...Sky Hawk: can't tell since his gauge overflowed early this am at 5", as did my buddy from New Cumberland, the Captain from days long past, and my Bro down in Lanco. What is it with you guys...get larger gauges or get out there and dump prior to overflow! Seriously, I love the obs being sent my way...keep them coming!
I don't want an ob from my Hummelstown connection telling me about a severely flooding Swatty. Here is the latest for it...
And the Breeches for the West Shore clientele...
And finally for you "River Rats"...
Speaking of "Rats" enjoy this Grateful Dead song concerning rats of a different variety...if you have 9 minutes, just let the song play in the background; it really is very good!
OK...gotta run and monitor my wet basement. The rain has picked up in its intensity once again, and there is still ample moisture advecting this direction! Remember, that swath of rain is moving from east towards the west! Ouch...
Enjoy your week's end! Stay dry...
Smitty
AA: Lots of rain...I know...No $&#!...but still not over...might see some brightening by Sunday pm...but not too much! Lawn mowing warning for next week!
As now the modeling has depicted for the last several runs, a coastal crawler will slowly meander in the Mid-Atlantic for several days creating rather damp and dreary conditions right through the week's end. The timing is not good for most as this is the lone fall holiday weekend in celebration of the discovery of the new world...quickly evolving into the present old world...but I digress and will refrain further from any political commentary. Here is the Euro temps and precip for the next 10 days...a solid 3.5" rain filled time...and temps remaining in the 50s for some time! Rainy and raw...
The Mid-Atlantic precip map shows a wider view of the Euro's bullish precip amounts...through Monday morn...
...and a day by day analysis of the Euro starting today in the upper left panel and ending Sunday in the lower right panel...
The GFS, while not as wet, is still showing plenty of precip in these parts...
But maybe the real wx worry will lie with beach interests as the tight pressure gradient will slam the coast with gales from Long Island to Hatteras for a prolonged period...look at the peak wave activity as shown by the Wave Watch model...
...oh yeah, that's right...non-essential....sorry, but I digressed once again! Trust me, big water along the coast this weekend with a long, stiff NE fetch! But the wx in St. Louis tomorrow evening will be awesome for the Pirates to clinch the NLDS and move onto the NLCS vs the Dodgers! Clear skies and temps falling through the low 60s during the division series clinching game! Go Bucs!
OK...gotta roll and listen to the A's clinching game over the Tigers! Enjoy this all-time baseball classic!
And enjoy your mid-week!
Smitty
AA: Looks like rain will be a main-stay Wed pm through the weekend!
This week will play out in a very similar fashion as this week that just past. There is one fly in the ointment, however, and that could lead to a rather damp Saturday if the east coast hybrid develops like both the GFS and the Euro suggest. In fact, both are in remarkably good agreement from this time frame, so I am worried that our wx could get a little "mucky" come this weekend. Here...take a look at the sea level pressures progged by both the GFS...
...and the EURO...
A strong NE wind will be blasting the NJ and Delmarva coasts and if the storm strengthens to any degree, rain will get driven westward into our region by Friday at some point...so maybe the windows will be down for Friday night lights? Just sayin'...
As for the rain tomorrow, there will be plenty. Most will fall in the daylight hours between 8 am and 4 pm. Showers will linger I believe until after sunset...However, the threat of a flooding rain is becoming less likely as the true remnants of TS Karen will stay south and east of PA. Thus, totals of ~1-1.5" should be realized as opposed to the 2-3" I thought possible yesterday. Here is the official prog from WPC...
Here is the map as per WPC for Monday afternoon...note that the remnants of Karen are well south of PA and delivering its deep moisture to places in the mountains of GA, SC, and NC.
That's not to say that we will not get heavy rain! Our air mass in place is quite warm and humid as evidenced by the current "real-feel" temps!
Once the front and its rains move through Monday evening, high pressure will rule the roost for the remainder of the week. Wednesday morning should be our coolest morning so far as a huge dome of high pressure will support radiational cooling well into sunrise Wed am...
By the way, look at the current snow cover over the western US where the storm moved this weekend!
And how the temps reacted to the cold from below...
But in these parts, it's been a very warm start to October! Look at this graphic...wow! And this week will have a deep trough into the west with a warm ridge in the east!
I'm just hoping that the Pirates stay as hot as air masses have been that have been visiting Pittsburgh! Go Bucs! Also hoping I see more of this...
OK...gotta roll and get my pre-game face on for a pivotal Game 3 Pittsburgh...this will undoubtedly be part of the festivities...good music from many artists, Iron City included! Hope you like...
Enjoy your much needed and beneficial rainy Monday...
Smitty
AA: Hoping the Bucs win today...oh yeah, and ~1" rain on Monday...maybe a tad more....
How about a little of both? Just depends where you fancy your wx tastes this glorious October morn! How about a tropical menace approaching the central Gulf coast? Or a raging blizzard in the northern plains? Not feisty enough? Does the thrill of tornado chasing catch your fancy? Well, that could be your Saturday in the Mississippi Valley. Personally, for now anyway, I prefer this late season taste of summer! Look at these current temps...
And the current dew points to accompany this taste of late summer here in the Mid-Atlantic & Miss Valley.
However, upon a wider view, you can clearly note the advancing cold season as noted in the 24 hr temp change over the inter-mountain region of the US.
A very large, deep and powerful mid-latitude cyclone is advecting this taste of early winter south and east as seen on the early Saturday surface map...
As this front pushed into the warmer and much more unstable air mass ahead of it in the mid Missouri and upper Miss Valley late Friday, nasty storms developed producing numerous supercell thunderstorms and tornado formation. Here are the preliminary reports from yesterday...
Note the correlation of the front, the 24 hour temp change, and the severe reports! North and west of the storm's center, early winter is being manifested in the form of a fall blizzard. This is a rather common event for the northern plains in the transition seasons as the air masses battle for control for their representative season! How about waking to the the potential of 12-18" of windswept whiteness? That's what the NAM says should occur!
And the wx system to ultimately affect our region looks rather innocuous in this IR satellite pic of the nation this Saturday morning. Aw, but, great things come in small packages...and look at that mesoscale system we call a tropical storm in the Gulf.
TS Karen will slowly meander with an ever so slightly increased strength prior to making landfall in the Delta Blues country. Technically, the center may stay just far enough offshore that it really never makes "landfall". And for what it's worth, there's not too much land in that part of LA from what I observed anyway...but Karen's effects will be felt especially in the heart of SEC Country later Saturday into Sunday. Here is the NWS official prog for early Tuesday as the remnant low pressure becomes absorbed in the approaching cold front from the center portion of the continent. In the wake of Karen, high pressure will slide SE into the deep south.
A week from now, the 2 highs in the map above will join forces and ridge another spell of beautiful early fall wx right over PA! Yes, the windows will be open next Friday guys and it will actually be more comfortable as opposed to the what felt like the 1st week of the season last evening!
Here is the WPC's official QPF forecast for the next 5 days. I've seen these scenarios numerous times over the years and I just have a "gut feeling" that an easy 2-3" rainstorm is in store for us starting as showers sometime Monday and falling quite heavily overnight into early Tuesday morning. Where the heaviest bands of precip set up is any body's guess right now, but the Piedmont of PA often gets soaked with these joining forces of the north country and tropics.
By the way...and sorry I digress...but go Bucs!
OK...'nuff said...gotta go prepare for my Saturday and wake up at PF. There are so many potential tunes to leave you with but since I mentioned the "North Country" just above, I'll leave you with one of my wife's favs...Johnny Cash coupled with Bob Dylan...I hope you enjoy as much as she!
And enjoy your week's end!
Smitty
AA: Heavy rain Monday night (2-3" possibly). Lawn mowing warning for later next week!
But tropical storms do! And I believe that we will finally snap out of this prolonged dry spell and with some ummph! This unseasonably warm start to October will help create this natural boundary for the remnants of Karen to traipse NE through Appalachia and deliver a 2-3" rainfall next Monday into Tuesday. First, take a look at the 1st 2 days of October...and this anomalous warmth will only be continuing through the weekend! We've had a slight NW wind the last few days, and the warmth has been delivered from O Canada!
And the Euro...which y'all know I like even with some of its quirks, says early next week will be very wet here at KCXY! Temps will also be trending back to norms...or slightly above once the ground dries out again.
Without the tropical influence, this passing frontal boundary would give nothing but a few passing sprinkles...You can see the approaching front as per the GFS by Sunday am...I believe the tropical system will be slightly slower and more westward than depicted below...note where the isobars are bending SW through western OH...this is the approximate frontal position.
But with the tropical moisture feed up the spine of the Appalachians in conjunction conjunction what's your function, sorry I digressed to Schoolhouse Rock, ample rainfall should fall in these parts next Monday! Here is the GFS for Monday pm...
And here is the Euro showing the same time parameter...clearly the Euro has the stormiest wx already through PA and up into New England at this time period...
Here's the O' Canadian...much slower...averaging the 3, I believe Monday daytime will be a wet time in these parts...
But not white like this run of the NAM for the Black...soon to be white...Hills of SD! That's the cold air pressing slowly east for our little wx fun next Monday...
OK...gotta go root on the Bucs! Have a good feeling about the Pirates taking care of business against the Cards...just kinda like their chances in the NLDS!
Enjoy your Friday and unseasonably WARM and somewhat humid week's end!
Smitty
AA: Looking for a good rain event on Monday after another warm and dry 3 days!
In analyzing the visible satellite pic this Saturday morning, many meteorological phenomena can be discerned. 1st look at north central PA and western NY...the fog that developed in the dendritic drainage tributaries of the major drains in that region. Clear skies allowed the air temp to drop sufficiently for saturation to occur over the moisture laden air over the streams...pretty cool, huh? Or how about the N-S cloud line that marks the 1-2 mile wide Hudson River north of the Big Apple. It too indicates a vast area of low clouds in the vicinity of the major river known as the Hudson. Or the expansive area of cloudiness in the south central PA region and the piedmont of MD and VA. Upsloping air, and therefore enhanced cooling air, from the east wind emanating over the warm Atlantic has created this stratoculumlus cloud deck that we have awoken to this Saturday. The clouds over the Delmarva are simply a result of the marine layer air advecting westward onto the land. Did I ever say a picture is worth 1000 words?
The surface analysis clearly indicates large and in charge high pressure ridging over the eastern US. However, the low level easterly air flow has done its dirty work to moisten the air and the upsloping of the air combined with radiational cooling overnight has led to this potentially stubborn cloud deck we see this morn. The easterly flow was clearly evident last evening in Colonial Park as the freshly grilled grub and the smoke from the process did not grace our press box as the subtle east air flow moved the food scents away from our olfactory and over towards the visitors' side. In addition, a glorious sunset was noted by my colleagues a few minutes past kickoff last evening at "The Speedway".
The only real excitement in the nest several days in terms of the wx is this ocean storm that should be monitored and will ultimately become quite the "Hybrid Howler" as it strengthen both baroclinitically and develop tropical warm core characteristics as it feeds back upon its own convection thanks to the very warm oceans at this time of year in the north Atlantic. The Canadian model is by far the strongest and here is the prog for late Monday evening...
This graphic shows the ocean's churning surface as a result of this atmospheric disturbance...but this model is US generated and the GFS' storm is not as feisty as seen above. There is also quite the gale center over by western Europe...
Once this storm lifts slowly NE, our wx will be dominated by yet more 500 mb ridging as seen by the Euro...this is a dry WNW flow over PA...
But once past next week, the Euro and all of the global models for that matter are stuggling with consistency. Often, that is indicative of a pattern change, but it is too early to ascertain anything in terms of a major upheaval of the pattern 10 days out. Example, here is yesterday afternoon's run of the Euro 500 mb for later next weekend...
Now, here is the latest run for about the same time period...it's not nearly as bullish in phasing the 2 jets as seen above. Clearly, it holds back the closed low over the Red River Valley while the NE enjoys another glorious autumn weekend. So which is correct? I wish I could give you a more definitive answer. I know a few of you would want my opinion as to how all of this will transpire so they could prepare for the EXACT OPPOSITE atmospheric conditions. Y'all know, I love ya, man....
With all of that said, I will continue to monitor the evolving situation...but for now, keep that freshly seeded grass watered, be careful with any and all outdoor fires, and enjoy this fine stretch of benign autumnal wx. After all, we've been soaked in these parts over the last several Septembers and Octobers...normally our driest "warm season"months without any tropical influences! The September peak is due to visitors from the tropics in these parts. The map is compliments of the USGS...if you look closely enough, the CC estate could be clearly marked near the center of the map!
In closing, I simply have to comment on what I thought was an absolutely fabulous closing for the home town crew for the all-time saves leader in MLB. I frankly don't believe that record will ever be touched. Yankee fan or not, baseball fan or not, the true heart-felt emotions spilled forth from Mo knowing that his career of choice and desire is coming to a close. Personally, it would've been nice had only Jeter gone out to the mound; however, pitchers have that fraternity where position players would as well. It was one of the awesome MOments in sports that simply do not occur nearly enough. And, oh, by the way, he pitched a clean 1.1 innings to help his team once again! Take the time to watch if you haven't done so already, and I think you'll agree.
Enjoy your NCAA Saturday...and I believe LSU will win outright in GA; so the 3.5 points are a bonus!
Have a great week's end!
Smitty
AA: Clouds will be stubborn today...but it will remain dry through the week. Monitoring next weekend for pattern change.
.png)
