2nd Verse; Same as the First

This week will play out in a very similar fashion as this week that just past.  There is one fly in the ointment, however, and that could lead to a rather damp Saturday if the east coast hybrid develops like both the GFS and the Euro suggest.  In fact, both are in remarkably good agreement from this time frame, so I am worried that our wx could get a little "mucky" come this weekend.  Here...take a look at the sea level pressures progged by both the GFS...

...and the EURO...

A strong NE wind will be blasting the NJ and Delmarva coasts and if the storm strengthens to any degree, rain will get driven westward into our region by Friday at some point...so maybe the windows will be down for Friday night lights?  Just sayin'...

As for the rain tomorrow, there will be plenty.  Most will fall in the daylight hours between 8 am and 4 pm.  Showers will linger I believe until after sunset...However, the threat of a flooding rain is becoming less likely as the true remnants of TS Karen will stay south and east of PA.  Thus, totals of ~1-1.5" should be realized as opposed to the 2-3" I thought possible yesterday. Here is the official prog from WPC...

Here is the map as per WPC for Monday afternoon...note that the remnants of Karen are well south of PA and delivering its deep moisture to places in the mountains of GA, SC, and NC.

That's not to say that we will not get heavy rain!  Our air mass in place is quite warm and humid as evidenced by the current "real-feel" temps!

Once the front and its rains move through Monday evening, high pressure will rule the roost for the remainder of the week.  Wednesday morning should be our coolest morning so far as a huge dome of high pressure will support radiational cooling well into sunrise Wed am...

By the way, look at the current snow cover over the western US where the storm moved this weekend!

And how the temps reacted to the cold from below...

But in these parts, it's been a very warm start to October!  Look at this graphic...wow!  And this week will have a deep trough into the west with a warm ridge in the east!

I'm just hoping that the Pirates stay as hot as air masses have been that have been visiting Pittsburgh!  Go Bucs!  Also hoping I see more of this...

OK...gotta roll and get my pre-game face on for a pivotal Game 3 Pittsburgh...this will undoubtedly be part of the festivities...good music from many artists, Iron City included!  Hope you like...

Enjoy your much needed and beneficial rainy Monday...

Smitty

AA:  Hoping the Bucs win today...oh yeah, and ~1" rain on Monday...maybe a tad more....