Cold Fronts Don't Break Droughts

But tropical storms do!  And I believe that we will finally snap out of this prolonged dry spell and with some ummph!  This unseasonably warm start to October will help create this natural boundary for the remnants of Karen to traipse NE through Appalachia and deliver a 2-3" rainfall next Monday into Tuesday.  First, take a look at the 1st 2 days of October...and this anomalous warmth will only be continuing through the weekend!  We've had a slight NW wind the last few days, and the warmth has been delivered from O Canada!

And the Euro...which y'all know I like even with some of its quirks, says early next week will be very wet here at KCXY!  Temps will also be trending back to norms...or slightly above once the ground dries out again.

Without the tropical influence, this passing frontal boundary would give nothing but a few passing sprinkles...You can see the approaching front as per the GFS by Sunday am...I believe the tropical system will be slightly slower and more westward than depicted below...note where the isobars are bending SW through western OH...this is the approximate frontal position.

But with the tropical moisture feed up the spine of the Appalachians in conjunction conjunction what's your function, sorry I digressed to Schoolhouse Rock, ample rainfall should fall in these parts next Monday!  Here is the GFS for Monday pm...

And here is the Euro showing the same time parameter...clearly the Euro has the stormiest wx already through PA and up into New England at this time period...

Here's the O' Canadian...much slower...averaging the 3, I believe Monday daytime will be a wet time in these parts...

But not white like this run of the NAM for the Black...soon to be white...Hills of SD!  That's the cold air pressing slowly east for our little wx fun next Monday...

OK...gotta go root on the Bucs!  Have a good feeling about the Pirates taking care of business against the Cards...just kinda like their chances in the NLDS!

Enjoy your Friday and unseasonably WARM and somewhat humid week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Looking for a good rain event on Monday after another warm and dry 3 days!