Here Comes Cindy

By now, most of y'all are fully aware of the impending landfall of TS Cindy somewhere near the TX-LA border along the Gulf of Mexico.  But I've seen these plumes of deep tropical moisture translate north and east once they move towards more northern latitudes.  Since yesterday, the amounts of precip on all models have increased for our region.  But the exact location has been wavering back-forth between a I-80 to a US 40 line.  About the geographical middle ground between those 2 east-west roadways is KMDT.  Right now, the guidance would suggest about 0.75" of rain should fall, mostly during the daylight hours of Friday...here are the various models...

First the Euro...

Next the GFS...

And the final global model I'll share is the O'Canadian...

And the smaller gridded NAM...

So, it looks as if there will be some rain, but just how much is still a roll of the dice as of now.  Gut feeling deep moisture with approaching height falls that may lead to record coolness early next week, I believe we are looking at at least 0.50" with 1.5" not out of the question.  Time will tell...Here are all of the plots as of today with the track of the storm...

And here is how deep this trough will be at its greatest deviation from norms next week (Tuesday)...that is quite the trough for this time of year!

OK...back to more computer work here at school.  I just took my lunch to study this system and share some of the numerical guidance with my faithful readers (after a beautiful stroll outside in this glorious sunshine)!  So, with that said, I'll leave y'all with a Merle Haggard classic...enjoy!

And enjoy this beautiful afternoon!

Smitty

Remembering Agnes

45 years ago this June, a Gulf of Mexico storm evolved into a nasty tropical weather system that wreaked havoc all up and down the east coast of the US.  I was 9 years old at the time and I remember very well that weather during the early portion of our summer vacation.  Horses being led out of barns threatened by the rising creek that drained Silver Lake; the lake upon which our house was located.  (Ironically, we got very little water in our basement during Agnes!)  My parents' 1967 Chevy Impala flooded when parked down near Lewisberry.  Helping in Harrisburg removing mud from basements by wheel-barrowing debris up planks laid atop of the steps...Just so many memories of the impacts of Hurricane Agnes...and the Euro is hinting at a possible tropical development in the Gulf early next week...First a look back at Agnes in terms of the tropical rains...

The system essentially had a tremendous amount of overrunning precip here in PA and NY as cool dry air was attacked by this slug of tropical moisture.  A tremendous amount of rain fell over the Susquehanna watershed and that water had to flow past Harrisburg!  Take a gander...

The Walnut Street bridge used to be a one way auto bridge out of the city to the West Shore.  After Agnes, it became a footbridge only!

Now the track is was very different than where the Euro is hinting at a possible land-falling system...

Note where the Euro has a 40% probability of development next week...

And the total precip that the model is suggesting...follow the path of heavy rain from the Gulf into east TX...but from there...?

Also note in the graphic above the lack of precip here in south central PA.  But there will be a chance of us getting hit with a thunderstorm Sunday evening as a cold front will progress through the state in the early morning hours of Monday...A warm weekend followed by some pleasant O Canada air once again!

OK...gotta run.  But of course I'll leave you with a tune that might? be appropriate for our Gulf coast states at the very least sometime next week...

Smitty

AA:  Looking at possibly a tropical system forming in the gulf later next week.  As for here, just a chance of some heavier rains Sunday night into Monday as a cold front pushes across the state.  Definitely drying out from the last few days and the next several days...

Oscillations and our Weather

As I sit here striking the keys with a slightly waning gibbous moon shining down upon me, I of course was thinking of the upcoming week of weather.  Again, if you want the cliff notes version, drop to the bottom of this post and peruse the AA I compose for my good buddy Timmy.  Otherwise, check out my reasoning for my beliefs...

Today, I want to focus on what I believe is the primary driver of the atmospheric engine...the Pacific Ocean.  Since water has greater density than air, water has a much greater influence in terms of distribution of heat energy across the planet.  And the greatest movement occurs in the equatorial Pacific.  Most, if not all of you reading this have heard of El Nino/La Nina...the warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean.  Think of the Pacific basin as a big bathtub and the slow global sloshing of the water back and forth not too different than when you were a kid playing in your own little bathtub!  Here is the forecast of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) from various models...

Most are predicting a slightly warmer (El Nino) Pacific in the upcoming months...here is the current Sea Surface Temps and from the recent past...note that since April, a slight cooling has occurred off the west coast of South America...this is normal.

But now, I want to share with y'all another lesser known oscillation which I believe also has a major impact on our wx here in the states.  The Madden Julian Oscillation or the MJO.  The MJO is essentially a rainfall pattern in the Indian and Pacific basins.  Monitoring the movement of these precip patterns, there seems to be a correlation to global wx events (SE Asia monsoons, flooding rains in the western states, arctic outbreaks...you get the picture...). Over the recent years, computers have correlated a "phase" of the MJO and the subsequent weather here in the US both in terms of temps and precip.  It is my belief that the temperature response is actually quite reliable.  With that said, here is the MJO forecast...note it is clearly moving into Phase 1 & 2!  Start at the green and follow with the dark gray shading...

So Smitty...what the heck does all of that mean?  Here is Phase 2 temps for the states focusing on May, June, July months...

Phase 2 shows a slight cool bias east of the Mississippi...and the modeling seems to agree that a cooling trend will occur after a brief stint of heat...normals for Harrisburg at this time of year are highs in the low-mid 80s and lows in low to mid 60s...

So it appears the atmospheric response once again to the MJO will correlate nicely here in the eastern US...time will tell,,,here is the surface map as of early Sunday morning...with a low to the north and the Bermuda High flexing its muscle, a warm to hot west to SW flow will result advecting heat to the east from the desert SW states...humidity will only slowly increase through the week...

But by Thursday, a big Canadian High will work its way across O Canada and push a cooler NE flow into our region here east of the Appalachians...take a look...

So why did I go over all of that?  I just wanted y'all to know that there is so much that goes into the weather prediction game that often goes completely unnoticed by the general public...and I love this stuff!  By the way, with a positive PNA, that too often causes a net cooling here in the east...Huh?  Take a look...

I just find all of this fascinating...and for those of you who made it this far...I'm sure you do too!  And good for you...and THANKS for reading!

Now for those of you who just like the song...here is a nice "Back and Forth" oscillation of two outstanding vocalists...enjoy!

And enjoy this brief heat wave; rest assured a cooling trend will occur shortly afterwards...(I think?!?)  Ha!

Smitty

AA:  Hot and dry through Wednesday with increasing humidity.  A good time to catch up with your mowing accounts!  Then moving into a cooler and somewhat damper time, but not too wet...here is the total precip for here in PA over the next 10 days...

Summertime!

The 3 warmest months climatologically at this latitude are June, July, and August.  Well, to this point in the month, it has been anything but warm...take a look at the temperature anomalies from June 1...

But things are about to change as forewarned last week...summertime heat and humidity will make inroads without resistance over the next several days...and as many of you know...once the deep moisture/humidity make it into these parts, it will be until September until it will willingly depart...SUMMERTIME!

Here are the departures from norms for the next week to 10 days...

An east coast heat wave to be sure...here is a an easier day to day graphic for the predicted temps over the next 10 here in our region...focused on KMDT...

The green bars are the overnight lows...notice they are increasing.  That indicates a major increase in in the humidity!  Although the daytime maxes are decreasing, the comfort index will become somewhat undesirable as we proceed through the week.  Summertime!  I guess I'll be initiating our  AC next week; no more York County AC; simply recycled AC!  In case you're interested, here is the 46 day Euro Temp anomalies based on its ensembles...check it out...

So Smitty, what does that map above indicate?  SUMMERTIME!  A wet pattern to develop...and they are in desperate need of precip in the SE states...in the SE quadrant of the USA.  A persistent trough/wet period into the PAC NW...And for us here in PA, periods of heat and humidity and then a bit of cooling with normal precip.  The biased is to the warmth...

Side note... I'm blogging tonight since there is no NHL to view and my Os are always BLACKED-OUT at my humble abode?  I will never understand that...?

With all of that said...SUMMERTIME!  Enjoy Norah...she sure can tickle those ivories...

And I hope y'all enjoy SUMMERTIME.  Before you know it, I'll be issuing frost and freeze advisories, but that is putting the horse waaaaaaay before the cart!  Enjoy these warm months!  And by the way, GREAT AMERICAN ECLIPSE...Be there or be square...

Happy Week's End!

Smitty

AA:  Enjoy this evening and Saturday in terms of both heat and humidity (or lack thereof!).  Then it is suddenly SUMMER.  Heat AND humidity!  Norah Jones playing the piano is awesome; take some time from your busy life to appreciate!  

A Little Help From My Friends

As many of you know, though a Red Land boy by hook and crook, my Sundays carry me to Lancaster County for faith and family and newly acquired friends.  Today was no different.  But since we are now in the month of June, our church services commence at 9 am thus causing a slight change of our Sunday am routine.  With all of that said, I decided to venture to one of my favorite venues for our Sunday noontime meal that I haven't visited for many a Sundays.  That's when we crossed paths with "Jimmy" (the name has been changed to protect the innocent).  It's actually been several months since "Jimmy", Kay, and I have discussed varying topics from politics to Pennsylvania; fermentation to family...you get the idea.  Of course, at some point, the weather came to the forefront and I made the comment that the pattern is going to change; likely this upcoming weekend..."Hey, maybe I should blog about that!"  Thanks "Jimmy"!  That's the saga for the first part of the "help from my friends"...

It's been a cool, damp last several weeks...take a look...please understand 2 things; the map below is a 30 day average where 2°C is quite a deviation from normal and that includes a stretch of 3 days with record and near record warmth!

But I do think the pattern is about to change...but not until this weekend.  First, we will endure another unsettled week with cold air aloft allowing for afternoon showers and even T-storms to pop from time to time...here are the 500 mb heights the next several days relative to the norms...

First Tuesday am...deep trough right over PA...

And that trough even strengthens and deepens by Thursday...

Even on Saturday, the cold air aloft will linger...but it is starting to weaken and pull back north towards Hudson Bay...

Finally by Sunday afternoon...boom...ridge and pattern change!  Welcome Summertime!

And using my hazy and foggy crystal ball, it looks warms from that point forward...not necessarily hot and humid, but summerlike to be sure!  I'm sitting here in my sun room WITH A SWEATSHIRT on typing this presently; not normal for early June.  By the way, it's an Baltimore Orioles sweatshirt if that is any consolation?!?  And the climate model seems to think we will have a summer...but I don't put much stock in the CFSv2...just my opine.

July...

August...

Now the 2nd part of the "help"...Jimmy always comments that he likes the music I incorporate into the wx discussion.  In fact, I get more comments and feedback about the music than my wx insights...hey, that's all good with me!  I'm glad you enjoy the tunes!  So lately, Kay and I have been listening to numerous Alison Krauss tunes and suggested that the ditty below would be a good choice for the pattern change!  Gone...Gone...Gone... (Done moved on) with this stubborn upper level cool pool for the last 3 weeks!  And to that I said..."Good Choice Crazy"!  Enjoy!

Summer Solstice Wednesday June 21, 2017 at 12:24 am EDT...just thought you'd like to know.  Also, do don't forget about the Great American Eclipse August 21, 2017...see below...

Okay...I'm out.  

Smitty

AA:  A pattern change this weekend.  After this week of cool and unsettled wx; summertime will return Sunday and for the foreseeable future. The mowing demands will slowly abate...then it's time to play in the creeks and streams with your 2 precious wonders...including your fido democrat!

A Day Of In-fa-MAY 31

I remember May 31, 1985 so very well.  The conclusion to my first year as a public school teacher and Memorial Day had just past.  Anticipation for my first summer vacation (where I would hold another job during the summer months!)  The week following Memorial Day 1985 was rather warm and humid for even the end of May in these parts (very different than what the last several days have been like in 2017).  Here's the last 10 days temps from the norms...

As y'all know, I've been an avid weather watcher for essentially my entire life and the May 31, 1985 outbreak of tornadoes sticks in my memory banks very similarly to the April 3-4, 1974 outbreak and the April 25-28, 2011 outbreak.  In fact, my Twitter picture is the 6:00 am EDT radar scan from State College when a tornadic cell passed through the KMDT region.  My commute that morning was adventurous as I had numerous detours getting to CDHS.  A few of my colleagues even commented on seeing wind damage (which upon further review was indeed caused by an F1 tornado!).  Here's a satellite loop for the 3 day April 2011 outbreak...Sweet Home Alabama was hardest hit.

(Since the .jpeg will not loop, here is the link that shows the movement of the 3 day outbreak if you're so inclined to view...)

https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=File%3ASevere_Tornado_Outbreak_in_the_Southern_United_States.ogv

We actually had a touch of snow here in south central PA in early April 1974 as hot and humid air was entrenched west of the Appalachians and a nasty polar air mass was on the move from the NW.   Four differing air masses collided in the Ohio Valley and the Xenia, OH F5 tornado of 1974 will also be well remembered!

Now, back to May 31, 1985.  The longest tornado actually snapped many trees that created a natural path through the state forest called Moshannon near a state park called Parker Dam.  After walking many miles through relatively deep and thick PA woodlands, my wife and I emerged into an area that had been recently cleared but in a manner that was quite strange.  That's because the trees were snapped in multiple heights and debris was scattered about.  A foot trail appropriately called "Tornado Path" ventures along this once meteorological turbulent path in Parker Dam State Park.  The longest path in north central PA (#24 below) is the F3-4 tornado that caused that destruction!  Take a look at the some of the 66 tornadoes on that day...

In case you're not familiar with the Dr. Ted Fujita Scale or want or need the review, take a gander...

Here is a visible satellite pic of the 1985 squall line that produced these long lived supercells...

May 31, 1998 also made the meteorological term "Derecho" mainstream amongst the wx fanatics...essentially a strong line of fast moving thunderstorms that produced damaging winds in a widespread path...see below...

And unfortunately back to PA...May 31, 1889...Johnstown Flood #1.  That was the largest inland flash flood with loss of life for the entire history of the USA!

And with all of that weather history, I'll close by saying that May 31, 2017 was a bittersweet day for me.  Not for the weather; it was actually quite benign.  As I reflect on my past academic year,  I had many wonderful students from the Class of 2017 these past 2 years who I believe were exposed to and appreciated the insights as to how our earth and its systems interact with each other in this wonderful natural world.  May the "real" world into which they venture also treat them benignantly.  

I'm sure I missed a few infamous May 31 events, but that nasty PA outbreak is ingrained into my deep memory banks.  Those of you with family and friends from western PA/Johnstown, I'm sure the 1889 flood is one for memories/stories.  Those from southern NY, the derecho was nasty and newsworthy and memorable.  And if you're a midwesterner, the 1974 Super-Outbreak is one for your personal books.  I'm just happy that as I sit here and touch the keys, a waxing crescent is shining down with only a few high cirrus obstructing an otherwise perfectly blue sky. 

That's it...Blue Sky!  RIP Gregg Allman.  Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  Looking back at some major weather events that occurred on May 31 over the years!

1.  1985 PA Tornado Outbreak

2.  1889 Johnstown Flood

3.  1998 Southern Great Lakes through southern NY and northern PA

4.  I also included other very memorable outbreaks for me personally (2011 and 1974, not May 31)

Taking Advice from Alison

June...

July...

August...

Like I said...listening to Alison....I hope you do too...

Cool through Memorial Day...had to get that in...a least!

Smitty

AA:  Watch AK Video...