Agreement!

Very quick update for y'all...there is agreement with the 2 primary global models for the weekend situation for snow and a tad of ice in these parts early next week!  First the GFS...

Now here is the Euro...

And just for all of you spring coaches...March will come in like a lion and act "lionish" all month.  Take a look at the CFS v2 for the month of March in terms of temps.  This map was derived by an average of the numerical model's run over the last 10 days!  In other words, it looks very likely that March will be yet another below normal month in terms of temps!

OK...gotta go walk the salt mines AKA the parking lots of CDHS!  Have an enjoyable Wednesday!

Smitty

AA:  Looking at a cold month of March starting with a major winter event March 2-3!  I will draft all offense once again!  My offensive categories by September might just be that...offensive!

Whoa Nellie!

Those of us who remember the classic football calls of Keith Jackson, well, that was my same exclamation when I saw the global models today.  No, I did not have Silver Finder in any combo...nor did I have him on top!  But one has got to love the deep closers!  (Tom Durkin must like them)... Just like the modeling today...Whoa Nellie!

It will take some time, but the modeling will be honing in on a solution of a rather stormy time in these parts the next couple of weeks.  We are certainly in a period of storms and more importantly, rumors of storms, but I feel quite strongly that this March will certainly be a memorable one in these parts before the winter of 2013-14 gives up her stranglehold on the eastern half of the USA!  Although it's most recent run is not as bullish, here is the GFS' take on the snow potential by next Monday!  Whoa Nellie!

And the most recent Euro is essentially the same...The Euro is finding the natural baroclinicity between the deep arctic air over Ontario and the strong SE ridge trying unsuccessfully to poke her heat to the north and west.  As a result...well...Whoa Nellie!

And the 850 temps suggest that this should be the case as depicted by the Euro...deep arctic air over the upper plains, mid-west, and southern O Canada whilst the SE ridge TRIES to poke NW.  Just ain't happenin'...as a result...Whoa Nellie!

The 850 mb level winds show a wave of low pressure developing over the TN Valley and moving ENE south of PA delivering a potent dose of QPF to these parts on/about Monday mostly in the form of frozen (snow) as the SE ridge tries to push the storm further north.  Thus, the max precip should be right over our region with the temps supporting snow.  Whoa Nellie!

And by the way, winter will still hold a couple of aces up her sleeve as the the 15 day 500 mb looks, well, just U-G-L-Y if you want spring to spring!  That is one deep trough!  Are you getting the picture....Whoa Nellie!

OK...well I've bored y'all enough...and possibly depressed some of you as well.  Didn't mean to, but the pattern is what it is; Cold with the potential for springtime storms.  You do the math!  March can be beautiful in these parts; often it breaks hearts for those wanting spring north of the Mason-Dixon Line!  Look for copious crocus crushers and possibly tulip tumblers...you get my drift?  

So this actually took some time to put together because I was looking for a "Whoa Nellie" call from Keith Jackson and I really couldn't find just one...so...I actually watched interviews with Bo Schembechler, Woody Hayes, Bear Bryant, and Joe Paterno with KJ asking the questions...what a flashback!  Anyway...here's another flashback for those of you who like some good R n R from the late 70s!

Enjoy your mid-week...

Smitty

AA:  Cold...and getting colder before it gets warmer.  Storms and rumors of such!  Monday looks likely for snow from this seat!  Still getting ready for March 9!

Winter Is NOT Over; Not By A Longshot

Just a very brief post to let y'all know what I'm thinking will be a delayed start to the month of March and what we in these parts would consider more typical spring weather!  Now, with that said, I do believe there will be some spring fever amongst many of you this Friday and into the weekend as severe wx rakes the Ohio Valley and mild temps spike in advance of a rather strong cold front that will pass through the state on Friday afternoon.  Here is the severe outlook for Thursday pm over the Ohio Valley...

This is compliments of a very powerful and deep cyclone that will move through the western Great Lakes later this week.  Look at the prog from the GFS this morning...a strong squall line is likely to develop with the passage of this front through the Ohio Valley later Thursday...

Ahead of that cold front, a deep southerly flow will advect warmth and humidity from the deep south right up over our bulletproof snow pack and create rather foggy conditions for Friday am I do believe.

And don't get too excited because our brief warm-up will quickly fade to a memory as once again, another arctic invasion is on tap for next week.

Although not in the modeling as of yet, I am concerned about a wave of low pressure forming along the 500 mb boundary of cold/warm air masses that could once again deliver a nasty winter storm to these parts sometime later next week.  Sneaky little innocuous waves get quite feisty given the natural baroclinicity at this time of year between winter holding on and spring trying to ...well....spring!

OK...gotta run for now...

Smitty

AA:  Potential skiff of a little ice yet again tonight...very little..., then a warming trend into the weekend.  Fog alert on Friday am...with a blustery cold front crossing the state later Friday afternoon.  Severe wx in Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana...that area.  Looking forward to March 9.

Yesterday & Tomorrow

Hey...but what about today?  It is the proverbial calm before the storm...if gusts to 39 mph are "calm?"!  That's right, I had several wind gusts into the mid 30s today with my highest gust of 39 mph at just after noontime.  So even though my thermometer peaked at 41ºF, it still wasn't a pleasant day outdoors.  The huge cyclone that paid us a visit yesterday is now well off to pay the Canadian maritimes a visit.  Meanwhile the Missouri Mauler is a-comin'.  Here what all of this looks like topside...

The latest GFS shows where the path of heaviest snowfall will occur mainly pre-dawn until noon or so...

The NAM is slightly more amped...keep in mind that ratios with this event will be slightly greater than the typical 10:1 snow:liquid ratio...so some places might surprise to the upside!

Here's the official call from the NWS State College...

But whatever does fall, it will pile onto the the 38.7" that has already fallen at KMDT.  That's their "official" globally warmed measurement.  Many areas in and around the KMDT area often measure with greater precision and enthusiasm ultimately recording far better and accurate results!  Here is a link to yesterday's storm totals...

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

If you access this link after Saturday, simply navigate back through time by going to the top of the page and clicking where it has previous version or previous numbers prior to 1.

Here's what this massive mid-latitude did over the last 2 days as seen in terms of snow accumulations!  It was a powerful work of nature!

Once the Missouri Mauler pushes through and explodes off the east coast Saturday...

...there will be some light warm air advection snows Monday night into early Tuesday.  Then the warming trend will TRY to invade our region.  But with this bulletproof snow pack, it will be difficult to attain anomalous warmth easily.  Below is the 5 day mean ending next Saturday.  Note how New England down through eastern PA struggle to get "too" warm...but the Carolinas are cookin'!

The trend is most decidedly for a thaw, albeit briefly, until another arctic air mass invades for the end of February...in the above map, the purple people eater is lurking north of MSP!  Now he invades the northern plains.....AGAIN!  This map is for the 5 days ending February!

OK...gotta run and kick-off my celebratory President's Day weekend.  The President of the United States...just think of that!  What an awesome title for some true American heroes!  Washington, Lincoln...these Patriots were just that; defenders and upholders of the Constitution of the United States!  What an incredible responsibility and yes...they rate as heroes in my book!  Hey it's difficult to find a good song about those 2 presidents together, but I thought I'd share another favorite of mine with Lincoln in the title...many of you will reminisce with this one! (plus isn't the Daytona 500 soon?)  Enjoy!

Remember, astronomical spring is only another month away!

Smitty

AA:  Another fresh coating of ~3" tonight into early Saturday.  Then another smattering Monday night.  Then the thaw!  But winter lurks for the last week of February!

Weather Banter

I was very humbled this past week with the impending, and now current, major winter storm.  Many people in my everyday encounters asked why I did not opine or blog about the storm.  "Smitty, which model you buying?"...or "Smitty, is it really going to snow a foot?"  I know many folks love to talk about the weather; however, I was truly honored by how many truly wanted to know my opinion.  I honestly felt that there is so much weather information out there that I was essentially piling on or being a "5th wheel".  But many of you have recently reaffirmed the fact that you enjoy these efforts and actually put a grain of faith in the prognostications.  I'm telling you, my inside informant has far more experience than I!

Not only my contacts with my buddy above, but when you see the birds in our area take down a black-oil sunflower seed feeder in less than 2 hours, well you know something is a-brewin'!  I never really gave much credibility to the wooly-bear caterpillar in terms of their long range prognostication capabilities, but many of my acquaintances swear by these critters!

So as I sit here with 8" of fresh white cold powder and visibilities reduced to about 0.25 mile in heavy snow, I just wanted to give a huge thanks to all of you who read this, talk weather, love the natural dynamics of this world and appreciate what goes into trying to figure out future weather events.  In fact, over the years, my favorite economist has actually become quite informed about the workings of the atmosphere and in particular numerical guidance!  He's a true testament to the fact that one's interests in any topic will carry the day!  We banter from time to time with the use of social media!

He was referring to the GFS (America's global numerical model) insisting this would be a light to at best moderate event as compared to the Euro which since Sunday had a major hit in PA!  And his interpretation of the modeling was actually quite insightful.  Now if he could only interpret the macro global economic conditions with as much zest and zeal so I can choose my investments with rock-solid confidence!

I often peruse the maps, charts, discussions, models, numerical guidance, etc while engaging in my early morning cardio routine.  So to pass the time, I will post some of these maps on Twitter and from time to time I do get some responses...

So please, if you'd like and have a Twitter account, follow @SmittysSynopsis.  It's not all weather related, but I'd say 90% of the time it is.  The other 10% you'll have to put up with my music quirkiness, my political "ponderances", and my commentary on athletics.  But usually, I will post sensible maps that are designed to explain the sensible weather.  Like this...the NWS forecast for snowfall through Friday morning...

Or this, the Euro's placement of the cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon...

Or this, the Hi-Resolution NAM's call on total snowfall by the end of this event...

And even this...the likely welcomed but albeit brief thaw arriving later next week!  Note the warmth all around central PA and the cold holding over the bulletproof snow pack here in central PA!  Also note the anomalous cold lurking to the NW!  

In closing, I truly do appreciate y'all asking, touting, inquiring, bantering, questioning, harassing, or whatevering me about this wonderful world of weather!  And I'll try to inform and educate about all things weather-wise and even some things other-wise.  In addition, I'll also leave y'all with some of my favorite visualizations such as this...

Or my favorite tunes...like this...

So enjoy your snow day...and thanks for reading!

Smitty

AA:  Heavy snow today (10-16") will mix with sleet at times...followed by a brief warm up later next week!  Looking forward to March 9!

Will February Offer Winter's Worst?

Well, it just might start off with a deep snow pack and not go anywhere soon if you believe the afternoon run of the Euro!  The on again, off again Euro has another system staying south of PA and delivering an appreciable snowfall midweek next week.

A foot of snow followed by a 4"er on the weekend!  Couple that with some brutally cold air once again invading the eastern half of the US!  After a brief thaw this weekend with merely a dearth of precip, the fun and games of winter's worst could start later next Tuesday!  Sub-zero air is very possible if the deep snow pack is intact with polar vortex III!

And here is the upper air anomaly (500 mb heights) for next Thursday!  Cold to invade once again!

And the confidence of this is relatively high since both the Euro and the GFS have been hinting at several waves moving from the southern plains off the Mid-Atlantic coast as arctic air remains strongly entrenched over our region.  First the Euro for next week...note the relatively weak low over NW 'Bama.  This is Wednesday am...

Now the GFS has a similar solution albeit 24 hours earlier and a touch further west...

But the point to be taken is that both of the global resolution models are seeing a very similar set-up; low pressure with gulf moisture attacking the arctic high in place over the northeast!  Buckle up baby!  Many times over the years we see this type of overrunning quickly slam the Lower Susquehanna Valley and then end as a little freezing drizzle making everything outside a complete winter wonderland! I'll not bore y'all with the critical thicknesses, but precip types will run the gamut in and around our area! But its not done after that as the Euro shows another low pressure off the east coast (the GFS does too) but here is the Euro...

But that is a different story for a different day!  So will February make you shiver like Don McLean?  American Pie; the song not the movie!  But if you can handle the cold while glancing at the sky this evening with a New Moon not obscuring your star gazing, you'll see a starry, starry night...also a fav from Don McLean!  Enjoy!

And enjoy your Thursday!

Smitty

AA:  I'm concerned February will be the stormiest of the brutal winter of 2013-14!  The cold is almost a given!  This is a compilation of the last 7 runs for the month of February for surface temps... Take a look! That's another brutally cold month ahead if this verifies!  Bundle up your little ones!

I Had To Laugh!

I often wonder from time to time that maybe I should be a bit more cautious with my words, gestures, and mannerisms in my daily interactions with the people whom I associate.  Well, none hit harder than just a few hours back when I got a very welcoming request to express my concern of a major snow event next week!  I was simply expressing to a friend of mine that the pattern is ripe for a major storm in the eastern US and that the Euro (which by the way has done quite poorly in North America this winter to date) showed in its operational run a crippling snow event for mid next week.  Here...take a look...

Now, few of you know this, but I look at the models and their runs EVERY SINGLE DAY!  Frankly, I wish I had more time to devote to analyzing the runs and the verification thereof, but educating the youth of America is my bread and butter so to speak...so I am not afforded the time to dedicate to deeply analyzing said model runs.  But this Euro run was an anomaly for its "Deterministic"; however, the ensembles have been fairly rock solid with some wintry precip next week.  Here, look at the afternoon graphic...just a bit different...

Now the ensembles approach 8" by day 10 and the "Deterministic" is a paltry 4" event.  But one thing I'd like to let y'all know is that both the GFS and the Euro are in fairly good agreement that next week will turn most decidedly stormier and with the arctic air staunchly entrenched, well...watch out for winter to rear its ugly head once again!

The timing isn't necessarily there as of this evening, but the GFS paints a rather wintry time next week as well after a "sloppy warm-up" in the form of snow, sleet, and freezin' rain along with some plain rain this week's end...but not too much.  However, when scoping the 500 mb Euro ensembles for a 5 day mean...just trying to hone in on the synoptic pattern, a battle ground is developing across the middle of the US...mostly the SE and the northern tier.

Above is the mean of the next 5 days.  Note the "white region" is primarily the true area where the fight will be.  But one also has to understand this is a five day mean which is an average position of the battle ground.  Anyplace within 200 miles of that area is bound to have some precip.  And based on climatology, for us in KMDT, wintry types of precip are likely.  Here is the 5 day mean 10 days out..."Bermuda ridge" trying to fight back against the Arctic Attack.  Good luck there!  Hey...how's that Global Warming working out for y'all this past month?

I'm not even going to go out beyond day 10 because it just gets plain old ugly cold ....AGAIN!  Well, on 2nd thought, here is the GFS out to day 15...another visit from the land of Nunavut!  

Accompanied by ample precip...here is the precip anomaly valid through the 1st week of February...

OK...enough for now.  I must consult with my underground informer for further updates...

The last thing I will leave y'all with is while I was writing this, I was listening to some good tunes from Bruce recorded on an album known as "The Seeger Sessions".  Pete Seeger performed this song in 1964 at the Newport Folk Festival to expose the song into a more mainstream recording. So I thought I'd share one of my favs off of that album in honor of Pete Seeger who left this world yesterday...

OK...gotta run and listen to our leader on the State of this Union.  But who knows...maybe I'll listen to some more Bruce since he is more engaging to me at this point...

Enjoy your cold mid-week...and oh, by the way, in case you didn't realize, its been COLD! ~20ºF below the norms...wow!  But warm in AK and CA and Greenland!  Ok...going now...

Smitty

AA:  It's been cold...next week it will get wintry again.  Long term...staying wintry and cold...and likely stormy!  Looking forward to baseball season!  I've officially become an Orioles fan!